Professor Jochen Runde & Dr Alberto Feduzi, Cambridge Judge Business School
The great Canadian ice hockey player Wayne Gretzky famously observed that “a good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.” Exactly the same idea applies in business: it is usually a good thing to be ahead of the trend. But the challenge is that it is often very difficult to imagine what the future might hold in terms of products, market opportunities, risks, and so on. And this is especially the case in situations of complexity, turbulence and rapid technological change.
In this talk Jochen and Alberto will introduce the ideas of “unknown unknowns” and “black swans”, and show how these relate to the challenge of imagining possible futures.
The focus will be on unknown unknowns; possible eventualities that we do not even register as possibilities when we are thinking about the future. It will be argued that many of us could do better at uncovering unknowns unknowns. Attendees will be shown a technique designed to improve performance in this regard.