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Millennial Uprising Social Unrest Stress Test Scenario

This report is part of the Centre for Risk Studies’ suite of stress test scenario reports, developed to explore management processes for dealing with an extreme shock. It is not a prediction. 

Overview

Social unrest is a growing issue for global businesses, posing a potential for disruption in many countries where international business operations are based. 

This study provides a framework to understand social unrest, and the political instability that can result. It describes a hypothetical scenario of an extreme episode of social unrest that businesses can use as a stress test scenario to explore their own ability to manage a crisis of this type. 

Key findings

  • The economies of North America and Europe suffer from disruption and reduction in output from strikes and workforce absenteeism, a drop in imports and exports due to targeted trade disruption, and a loss of demand and consumption. 
  • The results and protests of the scenario result in many minor, and some major, incidences of property damage, vehicle destruction, looting, emergency response costs, and pay-outs for compensation. 
  • The estimated loss in global GDP output in the five years following the Millennial Uprising Scenario amounts to losses of $1.6 to $8 trillion, depending on the scenario variant in question. 
  • The scenario also impacts the markets and investment portfolios negatively. Eurozone and UK assets are substantially negatively impacted. US assets are less affected.