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Cambridge Global Risk Index 2017

The Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, in collaboration with the American International Group (AIG), Lloyd's, Munich Re, Willis Towers Watson, and XLCatlin, invites you to our first conference for the Cambridge Global Risk Index, "Cambridge Global Risk Index 2017: Risk Science for Resilience" (formerly Project Pandora). The conference will feature key research at the Centre in modelling catastrophe risk to business activities as well as provide perspectives from business leaders on their new and emerging risk challenges.

The Centre has launched the Cambridge Global Risk Index to bring business critical elements of the Cambridge Risk Framework into focus. Using the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies Taxonomy of Threats, the Centre, in collaboration with its sponsors, is researching the catastrophic disruption to economic activities from multi-threat events. Topics will include an integrated risk outlook for 2017, identifying trillion dollar extreme tail events, better understanding of corporate risk profiling, and seeing opportunities for the insurance industry through risk science.

Read the press release following the launch of the report

Monday 5 December 2016

13:30-14:00 Registration & Coffee
14:00-14:10 Welcome Address

Dr Michelle Tuveson, Executive Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, Cambridge Judge Business School

Download slides (pdf, 765KB)
14:10-14:30 Cambridge Global Risk Vision

Professor Daniel Ralph, Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies & Professor of Operations Research, Cambridge Judge Business School

Download slides (pdf, 2.5MB)
14:30-15:00 2017 Global Risk Index

Dr Andrew Coburn, Director of the Advisory Board, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, Cambridge Judge Business School

Download slides (pdf, 2.9MB)
15:00-15:20 How Bad Could it Get? Identifying Trillion Dollar Scenarios

Simon Ruffle, Director of Research & Innovation, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, Cambridge Judge Business School

Download slides (pdf, 1.4MB)
15:20-15:40 Ensuring Resilience: Opportunities for the Insurance Industry

Ashley Hirst, formerly Chief Underwriting Officer and Chief Operating Officer, AIG Europe

Download slides (pdf, 211KB)
15:40-16:10 Tea & Coffee Break
16:10-16:30 Towards the Resilient Enterprise: Corporate Risk Profiling

Michael Rowe, Vice President of Corporate Insurance & Risk Management, GSK
16:30-17:20 Panel Discussion: Applying Risk Science to Improve Resilience

Moderator: Phil Cotter, Managing Director, Thomson Reuters Risk Business

Panellists:
  • Tina Fordham, Managing Director, Chief Global Political Analyst, Citi
  • Jonathon Gascoigne, Senior Risk Advisor, Willis Towers Watson
  • Dr Keith Smith, Manager Emerging Risks & Research, Performance Management, Lloyd's
  • Stuart Wainwright, Deputy Director of International Resilience, UK Cabinet Office HM Government
  • Professor Daniel Ralph, Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies & Professor of Operations Research, Cambridge Judge Business School
17:20-17:30 Closing Remarks

Dr Michelle Tuveson, Executive Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, Cambridge Judge Business School
17:30-18:30 Networking Reception

Note: Programme subject to change

Dr Andrew Coburn

Dr Andrew Coburn

Director of the Advisory Board, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, Cambridge Judge Business School

Read more about Andrew

Andrew Coburn manages the External Advisory Board of the Centre for Risk Studies, coordinating the inputs of consumers of research into the Centre's risk agenda. Andrew is the principal coordinator of the research programme on 'System Shock' at the Centre.

Andrew is one of the leading contributors to the creation of the class of catastrophe models that over the past 20 years has come to be an accepted part both of business management in financial services and of public policy making for societal risk. He has extensive experience in developing models and using them for business decision support. Andrew has also provided research inputs into government policy, such as House of Congress legislation on terrorism risk management policy and urban planning for disaster mitigation in Mexico, Metro Manila, and Southern Italy.

Dr Andrew Coburn is a member of the senior management of Risk Management Solutions, the leading provider of catastrophe risk models to the insurance industry.

Phil Cotter, Managing Director, Thomson Reuters Risk and Supply Chain, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies event at Cambridge Judge Business School

Phil Cotter

Managing Director, Thomson Reuters Risk Business

Read more about Phil

Phil Cotter is Managing Director of the Thomson Reuters Risk and Supply Chain business.

He was previously Managing Director of Experian’s Credit Services business in the UK and immediately prior to joining Thomson Reuters ran his own consulting business and served as a non-executive director on the board of Bisnode AB a pan-european information services provider based in Sweden.

With nearly 20 years experience in information services, he has in depth experience and knowledge, of global information trends and strategies.

He holds several advisory positions including Nottingham University Business School where he is a Honorary Professor. 

Tina Fordham, Managing Director, Chief Global Political Analyst, Citi, speaker at Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies event at Cambridge Judge Business School

Tina Fordham

Managing Director, Chief Global Political Analyst, Citi

Read more about Tina

Tina Fordham is Managing Director and Chief Global Political Analyst at Citi, the first to hold this position. Tina's work focuses on hard-to-quantify risks such as geopolitics and socioeconomic factors, including "vox populi" risk, the idea that public opinion is a risk factor in the investment environment, as well as the role of women in the global economy.

Named as a "Changemaker" in the Evening Standard's 2016 Progress 1000 list, as well as in the "Top 100 Most Influential Women in Finance", Tina joined Citi in 2003, where she advises corporate boards and institutional investors on the implications of macro political developments. Tina was  appointed in 2016, by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon, to the UN's first High-Level Panel on Women's Economic Empowerment, which also includes IMF president Christine Lagarde.

Previously, Tina served as senior advisor in the UK Prime Minister's Strategy Unit and head of global political risk at Eurasia Group, where she started the firm's financial markets research business. Fordham earned her master's degree in international affairs at Columbia University, and serves on the Advisory Board of Columbia's School of International and Public Affairs.

Jonathan Gascoigne, Senior Risk Advisor, Willis Towers Watson  speaker at Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies event at Cambridge Judge Business School

Jonathan Gascoigne

Senior Risk Advisor, Willis Towers Watson

Read more about Jonathon

Jonathon works as a senior risk adviser in the Capital, Science & Policy Practice of Willis Towers Watson, with 12 years' experience in the re/insurance industry. He has designed, managed and delivered innovative products for the catastrophic loss assessment of many natural and non-natural hazards, increasingly focussing on regulatory aspects of model validation and risk communication. Jonathon has also led relationships with academic links, such as Willis Research Network, and multi-sector partnerships to champion applied research, emerging business opportunities and societal resilience.

In roles outside the finance sector, Jonathon has gained evidence-based advocacy experience in a diverse range of governmental, NGO, engineering and start-up company applications, considering themes such as climate risk, atmospheric pollution, water utilities, energy, agriculture and strategic planning.

Ashley Hirst

Ashley Hirst

Former Chief Underwriting Officer and Chief Operating Officer, AIG Europe

Read more about Ashley

Ashley Hirst was, until recently, the Chief Underwriting Officer and Chief Operating Officer of AIG Europe. He original joined AIG to set up and develop AIG's advanced data science team for the Europe and Americas regions. Prior to that, he was a leader in McKinsey's London Insurance practice.

Ashley has a particular interest in the synthesis of advanced computational techniques with human expertise and judgement. He holds a MSc in Finance from London Business School, and a BSc in Mathematics and Computer Science from the University of Manchester. He lives in London with his wife and four children.

Daniel Ralph

Professor Daniel Ralph

Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies & Professor of Operations Research, Cambridge Judge Business School

Read more about Daniel

Professor Daniel Ralph is a Founder and Director of the Centre for Risk Studies, Professor of Operations Research at Cambridge Judge Business School, and a Fellow of Churchill College.

Daniel received his PhD in 1990 from the University of Wisconsin Madison. He was a faculty member of the Mathematics & Statistics Department at the University of Melbourne before coming to Cambridge University for a joint appointment in the Engineering Department and Cambridge Judge Business School.

Daniel's research interests include optimisation methods, equilibrium models for electricity markets, and risk in business decision making. He is Editor-in-Chief of Mathematical Programming (Series B).

Michael Rowe

Michael Rowe

Vice President of Corporate Insurance & Risk Management, GSK

Read more about Michael

Michael is currently the VP of Corporate Insurance and Risk Management, responsible for insurance strategy and implementation of global insurance and associated risk management programmes. He joined GSK in October 2014. Michael reports to the Group Treasurer and is a member of the Treasury Leadership Team and Treasury Management Group.

Michael is an actuary by profession but is new to corporate insurance. Prior to joining GSK, he worked at BHP Billiton for 10 years in a number of leadership roles, including global pensions and risk management, executive remuneration and corporate finance.

Simon Ruffle

Simon Ruffle

Director of Research & Innovation, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, Cambridge Judge Business School

Read more about Simon

Simon's responsibilities include managing research in the Centre, particularly the TechCat track – solar storm and cyber catastrophe research, and the Cambridge Risk Framework, a platform for analysing multiple global systemic risks through unified modelling software; a common database architecture and information interchange standards.

He is responsible for developing and maintaining partnership relationships with corporations, governments, and other academic centres. He speaks regularly at seminars and conferences.

He is developing methods for storing and applying the Centre's Stress Test Scenarios and other Risk Assessment Tools to macro-economic analysis, financial markets and insurance loss aggregation. He is researching how network theory can be applied to understanding the impact of catastrophes in a globalised world, including supply chains, insurance and banking.

Originally studying architecture at Cambridge, Simon has spent most of his career in industry, developing software for natural hazards risk. He has worked on risk pricing for primary insurers, catastrophe modelling for reinsurers, and has been involved in placing catastrophe bonds in the capital markets. He has many years of experience in software development, relational databases and geospatial analysis and has worked in a variety of organisations from start-ups to multinationals.

Dr Keith Smith, Manager Emerging Risks & Research, Performance Management, Lloyd's,  speaker at Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies event at Cambridge Judge Business School

Dr Keith Smith

Manager Emerging Risks and Research, Performance Management, Lloyd's

Read more about Keith

Keith has a background in engineering where he worked on both military and civilian communication projects. His interest in risk management methods grew from the mid 1990's. He has undertaken research in the management of risk leading to the Risk Clockspeed approach to ERM and he has developed practical approaches to decision making in fast moving situations. A Certified Fellow with the Institute of Risk Management, Keith is now the Emerging Risks and Research Manager for the Corporation of Lloyd’s

Michelle Tuveson

Dr Michelle Tuveson

Executive Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Read more about Michelle

Michelle Tuveson is a Founder and Executive Director at the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies hosted at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School. Her responsibilities include the overall executive leadership at the Centre. This includes developing partnership relationships with corporations, governments, and other academic centres. Dr Tuveson leads the Cambridge CRO Council and she chairs the organising committee for the Cambridge Risk Centre's Annual Risk Summits. She is one of the lead organisers of the Aspen Crisis and Risk Forum. She is an advisor to the World Economic Forum's 2015 Global Risk Report and a contributor to the Financial Times Special Report on Risk Management. She is also an advisor to a number of corporations and boards as well as a frequent conference speaker.

Dr Tuveson has worked in corporations within the technology sector with her most recent position in the Emerging Markets Group at Lockheed Martin. Prior to that, she held positions with management strategy firm Booz Allen & Hamilton, and US R&D organisation MITRE Corporation. Dr Tuveson's academic research focusses on the application of simulation models to study risk governance structures associated with the role of the Chief Risk Officer. She was awarded by the Career Communications Group, Inc. as a Technology Star for Women in Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM). She earned her BS in Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MS in Applied Math from Johns Hopkins University, and PhD in Engineering from the University of Cambridge. She is a member of Christ's College Cambridge.

Stuart Wainwright, Deputy Director of International Resilience, UK Cabinet Office HM Government,  speaker at Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies event at Cambridge Judge Business School

Stuart Wainwright

Deputy Director of International Resilience, UK Cabinet Office HM Government

Read more about Stuart

Stuart Wainwright is Deputy Director for Resilience in the Cabinet Office where he is responsible for ensuring the UK Government is ready for and responds to major civil crises in the UK and overseas. Stuart has worked in a number of government departments and in industry in a wide variety of strategy, policy, scientific and delivery roles. He has a PhD in microbiology.

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Location

Willis Towers Watson
Conference Suite
51 Lime St
London
EC3M 7DQ
UK