Lloyd’s City Risk Index 2018 Launch

6 Jun 2018

Time to be confirmed

This event is invitation only.

Lloyd’s of London

1 Lime Street

London

EC3M 7HA

United Kingdom

Overview

The Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies is delighted to present the launch of the 2018 update of the Global Risk Index, in collaboration with Lloyd’s of London and launched as the Lloyd’s City Risk Index 2018. The Index provides groundbreaking analytics of the potential impact on the economic output (GDP@Risk) of over 200 of the world’s major cities from various man-made and natural threats.

One of the most prominent features of the 2018 update is the worldwide rise in the threat of interstate conflict. The enhanced likelihood of interstate and civil conflict is a key factor in the rise in geopolitical instability on a global level with an increase for all of the cities profiled in the Index and further heightened vulnerability for certain cities.

The Global Risk Index allows users to understand the economic implications of a variety of risks, and use the GDP@Risk metric to enhance their preparedness and resilience. In this way, governments and firms will be better equipped to deal with risks in the future, some of which they may not have previously encountered.

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Programme

Wednesday 6 June 2018

Download the presentation slides (pdf, 1.16MB)

Introduction

Inga Beale DBE, CEO, Lloyd’s

Lloyd’s City Risk Index explained

Trevor Maynard, Head of Innovation, Lloyd’s

Methodology behind the numbers

Dr Andrew Coburn, Director of Advisory Board, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Panel discussion with Q&A

Chaired by: Trevor Maynard, Head of Innovation, Lloyd’s

  • Tina Kirby, Head of Innovation and Product Development, Beazley Group
  • Elizabeth Mercer, Chief Strategy Officer, 100 Resilient Cities
  • Professor Daniel Ralph, Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
  • Jo da Silva, Director of International Development, Arup

Closing remarks

Inga Beale DBE, CEO, Lloyd’s

Speakers

Inga Beale DBE

Chief Executive Officer, Lloyd’s

Inga Beale was appointed Chief Executive Officer in January 2014. Previously she was Group Chief Executive of Canopius with its principal operations at Lloyd’s. Prior to that she spent four years with Zurich Insurance Group, including a period as Global Chief Underwriting Officer. She was Group CEO of Swiss reinsurer Converium Ltd and while there, she led a major turnaround of the business before it was acquired by SCOR in 2007. She started her career as a reinsurance underwriter with Prudential before spending 14 years in a variety of international roles for GE Insurance Solutions. She is a Member of the UK Government’s Financial Services Trade and Investment Board, the UK Department for Education’s Business Advisory Group, the London Mayor’s Business Advisory Board, the Geneva Association Board, and is President of the UK Chartered Insurance Institute. Inga is also a member of the UK Government’s Public Service Leadership Taskforce.

Trevor Maynard

Head of Innovation, Lloyd’s

Trevor Maynard was appointed Head of Exposure Management and Reinsurance at Lloyd’s in 2011. Prior to this, he was Manager of Emerging Risks and an Actuary at Lloyd’s. He was educated at the University of Warwick and received a doctorate in Statistics from the London School of Economics.

Andrew Coburn

Chief Scientific Advisor, Centre for Risk Studies

Dr Andrew Coburn manages the External Advisory Board of the Centre for Risk Studies, coordinating the inputs of consumers of research into the Centre’s risk agenda. Andrew is the principal coordinator of the research programme on ‘System Shock’ at the Centre.

Andrew is one of the leading contributors to the creation of the class of catastrophe models that over the past 20 years has come to be an accepted part both of business management in financial services and of public policy making for societal risk. He has extensive experience in developing models and using them for business decision support. Andrew has also provided research inputs into government policy, such as House of Congress legislation on terrorism risk management policy and urban planning for disaster mitigation in Mexico, Metro Manila, and Southern Italy.

Dr Andrew Coburn is a member of the senior management of Risk Management Solutions, the leading provider of catastrophe risk models to the insurance industry.

Professor Daniel Ralph

Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Professor of Operations Research, University of Cambridge Judge Business School

Professor Daniel Ralph is a Founder and Director of the Centre for Risk Studies, Professor of Operations Research at Cambridge Judge Business School, and a Fellow of Churchill College.

Daniel received his PhD in 1990 from the University of Wisconsin Madison. He was a faculty member of the Mathematics & Statistics Department at the University of Melbourne before coming to Cambridge University for a joint appointment in the Engineering Department and Cambridge Judge Business School.

Daniel’s research interests include: risk in business decision making; risk aversion in electricity markets; methods and models for optimisation problems and equilibrium systems. Specific projects undertaken in collaboration with the banking and insurance industry (Catlin, HSBC, ICBC, Lloyd’s, Munich Re, Risk Management Solutions, Swiss Re) cover emerging risk scenarios, financial stress testing and a global ranking of cities by risk exposure. Engagements with other sectors include electricity consultancies (Artelys, LCP), oil and gas (Shell Exploration, Statoil) and retail (BT Retail, Gap) on decision making under high uncertainty. Public service contributions to the UK Cabinet Office, UK Industry and Parliamentary Trust, UK Office of the Government Chief Scientific Advisor, and United Nations World Humanitarian Summit.

Professor Ralph is a member of the Australian Mathematical Society, INFORMS, the Mathematical Optimization Society and SIAM. He was Editor-in-Chief of Mathematical Programming (Series B) from 2007-2013 and has served on the editorial boards of Mathematics of Operations Research and the SIAM Journal on Optimization, as well as the SIAM-MPS book series on optimisation.

Photos from the event

View the photo album on Flickr

Media coverage

The Centre’s research has been highlighted in three top tier news outlets: Forbes, Reuters and Sunday Telegraph. The Reuters version was syndicated and picked up by 22 different outlets including The New York Times. The research was mentioned on three live broadcasts: CNBC, CNN and CNBS Europe. Finally, it was picked up by several regional and local outlets as well. Below is a sampling of the media coverage relating to this research and to the 6 June 2018 launch event.

Cambridge Judge Insights | 4 December 2018

Impact of cyber attacks continues to increase across the world: Global Risk Index 2019

The potential impact of cyber attacks on the economy of the world’s largest cities has risen by nearly 9% in the last year, according to the 2019 update of the Global Risk Index from the Centre for Risk Studies at Cambridge Judge Business School, published today (4 December). Cyber risk has now risen from seventh to sixth place among global threats in the index.

The Telegraph | 23 June 2018

Man-made disasters are now a much greater threat than natural ones

Man-made risks, such as market crash and cyber-attacks, now account for 60% of the total economic output at risk in major cities globally, says a report by the Centre for Risk Studies at Cambridge Judge Business School. The Lloyds’ City Risk Index tracked 279 around the globe and shows a 16% increase in GDP@Risk from last year. (subscription)

Reinsurance News | 7 June 2018

Global economic output at risk from man-made events

Man-made risks, such as market crash and cyber-attacks, now account for 60% of the total economic output at risk in major cities globally, says a report by the Centre for Risk Studies at Cambridge Judge Business School. The Lloyd’s City Risk Index tracked 279 cities around the globe and shows a 16% increase in GDP@Risk from last year. Professor Daniel Ralph, Director of the Centre for Risk Studies, said: “Lloyd’s City Risk Index helps governments, businesses and the insurance sector understand the economic implications of a variety of man-made and natural risks.”

CNBC | 6 June 2018

Cybercrime the fastest developing risk globally

Lloyd’s Chairman Bruce Carnegie-Brown discusses the findings of Global City Risk Index, produced in collaboration with the Centre for Risk Studies at Cambridge Judge Business School. According to the report, the potential impact of geopolitical and security shocks to the economy of the world’s largest cities has risen by 16 per cent in the last year. The index compiled the impact of 22 types of threats, such as market crash, cyber-attack or earthquake, into a single annual measurement of economic loss for 279 world cities.

Asia Insurance Post | 6 June 2018

Report: Threats from conflict and terrorism account for more than half of Indian cities’ risks

The potential impact of geopolitical and security shocks on the economy of the world’s largest cities has risen by 16% in the last year, according to the 2018 Global Risk Index by the Centre for Risk Studies at the Cambridge Judge Business School. The Centre sees a uniform rise in GDP@Risk across all the 279 world cities that make up the index and more significant increases in risk for some urban centres. Five Indian cities including Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore are in the top 10 globally for civil conflict and terrorism risks.

Forbes | 6 June 2018

Coming soon to a city near you – $320 billion in economic losses

Man-made risks, such as market crash and cyber-attacks, now account for 60% of the total economic output at risk in major cities globally, says a report by the Centre for Risk Studies at Cambridge Judge Business School. The Lloyd’s City Risk Index tracked 279 cities around the globe and showed a 16% increase in GDP@Risk from last year.

Reuters | 6 June 2018

Tokyo is world city facing greatest risks

According to the latest Lloyd’s City Risk Index, Tokyo is facing most risks globally to its annual economic output, due to its proximity to North Korea. The report by the Centre for Risk Studies at Cambridge Judge Business School tracked 279 around the globe and shows a 16 per cent increase in GDP@Risk from last year.

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