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The Times: Brexit: Impact will be small, say economists

Treasury forecasts on Brexit have been criticised for being too pessimistic.

A research paper entitled How the Economics Profession Got it Wrong on Brexit, sent out by the campaign group Briefings for Brexit, found that the decision to take the UK out of the EU will have only a small negative impact on economic growth over the coming years, and is likely to have a minor impact on living standards.

The authors, Ken Coutts and Graham Gudgin, who are honorary research associates at the CBR, and Jordan Buchanan of the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre, draw conclusions they say are in contrast to the large negative impacts predicted by others and particularly by the Treasury.

The Treasury reports pre-referendum used a “gravity” model while the leaked Brexit forecasts prepared for cabinet ministers last month used a “general equilibrium model”, both of which the report criticises.

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