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3rd Risk Summit

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The annual meetings of the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies are designed to encourage debate and provoke thought across conventional boundaries, around issues of societal and corporate risk. The 3rd Annual Meeting of the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies examines how risk is likely to change in the future, emerging risks, and the increasing uncertainties of planning for the longer term. The natural tendency in planning is to assume that recent history is a good guide to future trends, or that today’s situation will continue for the foreseeable future. And yet there are many examples, in many periods and fields, of sudden unexpected changes in direction from historical preceding trends. This conference will examine the challenges of planning for the future, in particular developing business strategy and government policy over longer term horizons.

Day one: Wednesday 7 December 2011

Time

Session

09:00-09:30

Coffee & Meeting Registration

09:30-09:40

Welcome and Introduction by Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies Team

09:40-11:10

Plenary Session 1: Unsustainability
Plenary Session Chair: Professor Peter Guthrie, Professor of Engineering for Sustainable Development, University of Cambridge, Department of Engineering

  • The Future of Risk
    Dr Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Research Officer, Risk Management Solutions
  • Environmental and Social Risks in Finance: The Equator Principles and Emerging Good Practices
    Andre Abadie, Managing Director, Global Environmental & Social Risk Management, JP Morgan
  • Changing Demographics: Longevity Risk and Ageing
    Mark Twigg, Executive Director, Cicero Consulting

11:10-11:30

Coffee and tea

11:30-13:15

Plenary Session 2: Speculations on the Future – Geo-Political Change
Plenary Session Chair: Dr David Reiner, Senior Lecturer, University of Cambridge Judge Business School

  • The Rise of China in Historical Perspective
    Professor Brendan Simms, Professor in the History of European International Relations, University of Cambridge, Department of Politics and International Studies
  • Arctic Geopolitics: How Do Nations Balance National and Common Interests?
    Professor Paul Berkman, Fulbright Distinguished Scholar & Research Professor, University of California, Santa Barbara

13:15-14:15

Panel Discussion: Geo-political Change: Dialogue on Globalisation, Sovereignty, and Balance
Moderated by Andrew Freeman, Independent Risk Advisor & Author

  • Derek Leatherdale, Head of Geo-political Risk, HSBC
  • Professor Brendan Simms, Professor in the History of European International Relations, University of Cambridge, Department of Politics and International Studies
  • Crispin Hawes, Director, Middle East and North Africa, Eurasia Group
  • Professor Jaideep Prabhu, Jawaharlal Nehru Professor of Indian Business & Enterprise , University of Cambridge Judge Business School

14:15-15:30

Plenary Session 3: Future-proof Decisions and Recommendations
Plenary Session Chair: Dr Emily So, Lecturer, University of Cambridge, Department of Architecture & Director, CURBE

  • The Energy Outlook to 2030: Global Trends andWhat Can Bend Them?
    Dr Alexander Naumov, Macro Economist, BP Group Economics
  • Operational Risk, Scenario Analysis, and External Events: A Regulatory Perspective
    Dr Peter McCormack, Senior Risk Specialist – Risk Frameworks and Governance, Risk Specialist Division, Financial Services Authority
  • Measuring and Mitigating Operational Risks in Engineered Cyber-physical Systems
    Dr Ned Allen, Senior Fellow & Chief Scientist, Lockheed Martin, Aeronautics

15:30-16:00

Coffee and tea

16:00-16:35

Plenary Session 3 Continued: Future-proof Decisions and Recommendations
Plenary Session Chair: Professor Haresh Shah Chairman of Advisory Board, Institute for Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore & Emeritus Professor of Stanford University

  • A Debrief: Key Developments on Climate for Corporates in 2011
    Katharine Thoday, Programme Manager, Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership
  • Future Climate Change: Perspectives from the Polar Regions and Impacts to Global Policy
    Dr Emily Shuckburgh, Head of the Open Oceans Research Group, British Antarctic Survey & UK Department of Energy

16:35-17:15

Panel Discussion and Open Forum: Profiles of the Future and Emerging Risks
Moderated by: Mark Gilbert, London Bureau Chief, Bloomberg News

  • Rowan Douglas, CEO,Willis Global Analytics & Chairman, Willis Research Network
  • Dr Emily Shuckburgh, Head of the Open Oceans Research Group, British Antarctic Survey & UK Department of Energy
  • Philip Brice, Corporate Risk Manager, BP Treasury
  • Dr Miles Elsden, Head of Defence and Security, UK Government Office for Science
  • Neil J Smith, Manager, Emerging Risks & Research Exposure Management, Performance Management, Lloyd’s

17:30-19:00

Drinks Reception
Cambridge Judge Business School Common Room

19:15-22:00

Meeting Dinner at Christ’s College, Cambridge
Christ’s College Welcome: Professor Peter Landshoff, Christ’s College Fellow, Christ’s College Fellow, University of Cambridge, DAMTP

Day two: Thursday 8 December 2011

Time

Session

09:00-09:30

Coffee & Meeting Registration

09:30-09:35

Welcome and Introduction
Professor Daniel Ralph, Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies & Professor of Operations Research, Cambridge Judge Business School

09:40-11:10

Plenary Session 4: Imagining and Doing the “How”
Plenary Session Chair: Professor David Spiegelhalter Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge

  • A Debrief: The Foreseer Project – Linking Energy, Water and Land Resource Future
    Grant Kopec, PhD Candidate, University of Cambridge, Department of Engineering
  • How Can the Risk of Global Food Supply/Demand Difference be Mitigated through Innovations in Crop Insurance?
    Professor Haresh Shah, Chairman of Advisory Board, Institute for Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore & Emeritus Professor of Stanford University
  • Solar Flare Risks: Consequences on Satellites and Global Communications Systems
    Nafiz Karabudak, Senior Manager, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Technology Initiatives
  • Geo-engineering Technologies for Mitigating Climate Impacts
    Dr Hugh Hunt, Senior Lecturer, University of Cambridge, Department of Engineering
  • Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies’ Systemic Shock Framework
    Dr Andrew Coburn, Senior Vice President, Risk Management Solutions & Director of External Advisory Board, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
    Simon Ruffle, Director of Technology, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

11:10-11.30

Coffee and tea

11:30-13.00

Plenary Session 5: Risk Research Focus Group Discussions

11:30-11.35

Introduction to Risk Research Tracks & Focus Group Discussions
Michelle Tuveson, Executive Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

11:35-13:00

Risk Research Tracks: Focus Group Discussions and Information

  • Track 1: Threat Assessment
  • Track 2: Systemic Risk
  • Track 3: Using Scenarios

13:00-14:00

Lunch

14:00-15:30

Risk Research Focus Group De-briefs and Discussion

15:30-15:45

Closing

Speakers

  • Professor Daniel Ralph, Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies & Professor of Operations Research, Cambridge Judge Business School
  • Dr Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Research Officer, Risk Management Solutions
  • André Abadie, Managing Director, Global Environmental & Social Risk Management, JP Morgan
  • Professor Brendan Simms, Professor in the History of European International Relations, University of Cambridge, Department of Politics and International Studies
  • Professor Paul Berkman, Fulbright Distinguished Scholar & Research Professor, University of California, Santa Barbara
  • Andrew Freeman, Independent Risk Advisor & Author
  • Crispin Hawes, Director, Middle East and North Africa, Eurasia Group
  • Derek Leatherdale, Head of Geo-political Risk, HSBC
  • Professor Jaideep Prabhu, Jawaharlal Nehru Professor of Indian Business & Enterprise , University of Cambridge Judge Business School
  • Professor Brendan Simms, Professor in the History of European International Relations, University of Cambridge, Department of Politics and International Studies
  • Dr Emily So, Lecturer, University of Cambridge, Department of Architecture & Director, CURBE
  • Professor Haresh Shah, Chairman of Advisory Board, Institute for Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University
  • Alexander Naumov, BP, Group Economics
  • Dr Peter McCormack, Senior Risk Specialist – Risk Frameworks and Governance, Risk Specialist Division, Financial Services Authority
  • Dr Ned Allen, Senior Fellow & Chief Scientist, Lockheed Martin, Aeronautics
  • Katharine Thoday, Programme Manager, Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership
  • Dr Emily Shuckburgh, Programme Manager, Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership
  • Mark Gilbert, London Bureau Chief, Bloomberg News
  • Rowan Douglas, CEO, Willis Global Analytics & Chairman, Willis Research Network
  • Dr Emily Shuckburgh, Head of the Open Oceans Research Group, British Antarctic Survey & UK Department of Energy
  • Philip Brice, Corporate Risk Manager, BP Treasury
  • Dr Miles Elsden, Head of Defence and Security, UK Government Office for Science
  • Neil J Smith, Manager, Emerging Risks & Research Exposure Management, Performance Management, Lloyd’s
  • Grant Kopec, PhD Candidate, University of Cambridge, Department of Engineering
  • Professor David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge
  • Nafiz Karabudak, Senior Manager, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Technology Initiatives
  • Dr Hugh Hunt, Senior Lecturer
  • Dr Andrew Coburn, Senior Vice President, Risk Management Solutions & Director of External Advisory Board, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
  • Simon Ruffle, Director of Technology, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
  • Michelle Tuveson, Executive Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
  • Dr Dougal Goodman, Chief Executive, The Foundation for Science and Technology
  • Dr Gary Bowman, Research Associate, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
  • Alan Smith, Chief of Staff and Global Head of Risk Strategy, HSBC
  • Adrian Leonard, PhD Candidate, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies & University of Cambridge Department of History
  • Peter Nakada, Managing Director, Risk Management Solutions
  • Nina Andreeva, PhD Candidate, University of Cambridge Judge Business School

Organising Committee Chair

Michelle Tuveson, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Organising Committee

Andrew Coburn, Risk Management Solutions

Andrew Freeman, Deloitte Centre for Financial Services

Paul Glasserman, Columbia Business School

Daniel Ralph, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Simon Ruffle, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Nick Watkins, British Antarctic Survey

Ruth Whaley, Regulatory Fundamentals Consulting, LLC