3rd Risk Summit

The annual meetings of the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies are designed to encourage debate and provoke thought across conventional boundaries, around issues of societal and corporate risk. The 3rd Annual Meeting of the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies examines how risk is likely to change in the future, emerging risks, and the increasing uncertainties of planning for the longer term. The natural tendency in planning is to assume that recent history is a good guide to future trends, or that today’s situation will continue for the foreseeable future. And yet there are many examples, in many periods and fields, of sudden unexpected changes in direction from historical preceding trends. This conference will examine the challenges of planning for the future, in particular developing business strategy and government policy over longer term horizons.

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Day one: Wednesday 7 December 2011

Time	Session
09:00-09:30	Coffee & Meeting Registration
09:30-09:40	Welcome and introduction to the Centre for Risk Studies’ 3rd Annual Meeting Danny Ralph, Professor of Operations Research, Academic Director of the Centre for Risk Studies (CRS)
09:40-11:10	Plenary Session 1: Unsustainability Plenary Session Chair: Professor Peter Guthrie, Professor of Engineering for Sustainable Development, University of Cambridge, Department of Engineering The future of Risk Dr Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Research Officer, Risk Management Solutions Environmental and Social Risks in Finance: The Equator Principles and Emerging Good Practices Andre Abadie, Managing Director, Global Environmental & Social Risk Management, JP Morgan Changing Demographics: Longevity Risk and Ageing Mark Twigg, Executive Director, Cicero Consulting
11:10-11:30	Coffee and tea
11:30-13:15	Plenary Session 2: Speculations on the Future – Geo-Political Change Plenary Session Chair: Dr David Reiner, Senior Lecturer, University of Cambridge Judge Business School The Rise of China in Historical Perspective Professor Brendan Simms, Professor in the History of European International Relations, University of Cambridge, Department of Politics and International Studies Arctic Geopolitics: How Do Nations Balance National and Common Interests? Professor Paul Berkman, Fulbright Distinguished Scholar & Research Professor, University of California, Santa Barbara
13:15-14:15	Panel Discussion: Geo-political Change: Dialogue on Globalisation, Sovereignty, and Balance Moderated by Andrew Freeman, Independent Risk Advisor & Author Derek Leatherdale, Head of Geo-political Risk, HSBC Professor Brendan Simms, Professor in the History of European International Relations, University of Cambridge, Department of Politics and International Studies Crispin Hawes, Director, Middle East and North Africa, Eurasia Group Professor Jaideep Prabhu, Jawaharlal Nehru Professor of Indian Business & Enterprise , University of Cambridge Judge Business School
14:15-15:30	Plenary Session 3: Future-proof Decisions and Recommendations Plenary Session Chair: Dr Emily So, Lecturer, University of Cambridge, Department of Architecture & Director, CURBE The Energy Outlook to 2030: Global Trends and What Can Bend Them? Dr Alexander Naumov, Macro Economist, BP Group Economics Operational Risk, Scenario Analysis, and External Events: A Regulatory Perspective Dr Peter McCormack, Senior Risk Specialist – Risk Frameworks and Governance, Risk Specialist Division, Financial Services Authority Measuring and Mitigating Operational Risks in Engineered Cyber-physical Systems Dr Ned Allen, Senior Fellow & Chief Scientist, Lockheed Martin, Aeronautics
15:30-16:00	Coffee and tea
16:00-16:35	Plenary Session 3 Continued: Future-proof Decisions and Recommendations Plenary Session Chair: Professor Haresh Shah Chairman of Advisory Board, Institute for Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore & Emeritus Professor of Stanford University A Debrief: Key Developments on Climate for Corporates in 2011 Katharine Thoday, Programme Manager, Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership Future Climate Change: Perspectives from the Polar Regions and Impacts to Global Policy Dr Emily Shuckburgh, Head of the Open Oceans Research Group, British Antarctic Survey & UK Department of Energy
16:35-17:15	Panel Discussion and Open Forum: Profiles of the Future and Emerging Risks Moderated by: Mark Gilbert, London Bureau Chief, Bloomberg News Rowan Douglas, CEO,Willis Global Analytics & Chairman, Willis Research Network Dr Emily Shuckburgh, Head of the Open Oceans Research Group, British Antarctic Survey & UK Department of Energy Philip Brice, Corporate Risk Manager, BP Treasury Dr Miles Elsden, Head of Defence and Security, UK Government Office for Science Neil J Smith, Manager, Emerging Risks & Research Exposure Management, Performance Management, Lloyd’s
17:30-19:00	Drinks Reception Cambridge Judge Business School Common Room
19:15-22:00	Meeting Dinner at Christ’s College, Cambridge Christ’s College Welcome: Professor Peter Landshoff, Christ’s College Fellow, Christ’s College Fellow, University of Cambridge, DAMTP

Day two: Thursday 8 December 2011

Time	Session
09:00-09:30	Coffee & Meeting Registration
09:30-09:35	Welcome and Introduction Professor Daniel Ralph, Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies & Professor of Operations Research, Cambridge Judge Business School
09:40-11:10	Plenary Session 4: Imagining and Doing the “How” Plenary Session Chair: Professor David Spiegelhalter Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge A Debrief: The Foreseer Project – Linking Energy, Water and Land Resource Future Grant Kopec, PhD Candidate, University of Cambridge, Department of Engineering How Can the Risk of Global Food Supply/Demand Difference be Mitigated through Innovations in Crop Insurance? Professor Haresh Shah, Chairman of Advisory Board, Institute for Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore & Emeritus Professor of Stanford University Solar Flare Risks: Consequences on Satellites and Global Communications Systems Nafiz Karabudak, Senior Manager, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Technology Initiatives Geo-engineering Technologies for Mitigating Climate Impacts Dr Hugh Hunt, Senior Lecturer, University of Cambridge, Department of Engineering Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies’ Systemic Shock Framework Dr Andrew Coburn, Senior Vice President, Risk Management Solutions & Director of External Advisory Board, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies Simon Ruffle, Director of Technology, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
11:10-11.30	Coffee and tea
11:30-13.00	Plenary Session 5: Risk Research Focus Group Discussions
11:30-11.35	Introduction to Risk Research Tracks & Focus Group Discussions Michelle Tuveson, Executive Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
11:35-13:00	Risk Research Tracks: Focus Group Discussions and Information Track 1: Threat Assessment Track 2: Systemic Risk Track 3: Using Scenarios
13:00-14:00	Lunch
14:00-15:30	Risk Research Focus Group De-briefs and Discussion
15:30-15:45	Closing

Speakers

Professor Daniel Ralph, Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies & Professor of Operations Research, Cambridge Judge Business School
Dr Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Research Officer, Risk Management Solutions
André Abadie, Managing Director, Global Environmental & Social Risk Management, JP Morgan
Professor Brendan Simms, Professor in the History of European International Relations, University of Cambridge, Department of Politics and International Studies
Professor Paul Berkman, Fulbright Distinguished Scholar & Research Professor, University of California, Santa Barbara
Andrew Freeman, Independent Risk Advisor & Author
Crispin Hawes, Director, Middle East and North Africa, Eurasia Group
Derek Leatherdale, Head of Geo-political Risk, HSBC
Professor Jaideep Prabhu, Jawaharlal Nehru Professor of Indian Business & Enterprise , University of Cambridge Judge Business School
Professor Brendan Simms, Professor in the History of European International Relations, University of Cambridge, Department of Politics and International Studies
Dr Emily So, Lecturer, University of Cambridge, Department of Architecture & Director, CURBE
Professor Haresh Shah, Chairman of Advisory Board, Institute for Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University
Alexander Naumov, BP, Group Economics
Dr Peter McCormack, Senior Risk Specialist – Risk Frameworks and Governance, Risk Specialist Division, Financial Services Authority
Dr Ned Allen, Senior Fellow & Chief Scientist, Lockheed Martin, Aeronautics
Katharine Thoday, Programme Manager, Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership
Dr Emily Shuckburgh, Programme Manager, Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership
Mark Gilbert, London Bureau Chief, Bloomberg News
Rowan Douglas, CEO, Willis Global Analytics & Chairman, Willis Research Network
Dr Emily Shuckburgh, Head of the Open Oceans Research Group, British Antarctic Survey & UK Department of Energy
Philip Brice, Corporate Risk Manager, BP Treasury
Dr Miles Elsden, Head of Defence and Security, UK Government Office for Science
Neil J Smith, Manager, Emerging Risks & Research Exposure Management, Performance Management, Lloyd’s
Grant Kopec, PhD Candidate, University of Cambridge, Department of Engineering
Professor David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge
Nafiz Karabudak, Senior Manager, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Technology Initiatives
Dr Hugh Hunt, Senior Lecturer
Dr Andrew Coburn, Senior Vice President, Risk Management Solutions & Director of External Advisory Board, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
Simon Ruffle, Director of Technology, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
Michelle Tuveson, Executive Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
Dr Dougal Goodman, Chief Executive, The Foundation for Science and Technology
Dr Gary Bowman, Research Associate, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
Alan Smith, Chief of Staff and Global Head of Risk Strategy, HSBC
Adrian Leonard, PhD Candidate, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies & University of Cambridge Department of History
Peter Nakada, Managing Director, Risk Management Solutions
Nina Andreeva, PhD Candidate, University of Cambridge Judge Business School

Organising Committee Chair

Michelle Tuveson, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Organising Committee

Andrew Coburn, Risk Management Solutions
Andrew Freeman, Deloitte Centre for Financial Services
Paul Glasserman, Columbia Business School
Daniel Ralph, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
Simon Ruffle, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
Nick Watkins, British Antarctic Survey
Ruth Whaley, Regulatory Fundamentals Consulting, LLC

Interview with speakers

Professor Daniel Ralph: Welcome and introduction to the Centre for Risk Studies’ 3rd Annual Meeting.
Dr Robert Muir-Wood, Risk Management Solutions, on the future of risk.
Philip Brice, BP Treasury, on profiles of the future and emerging risks.
Dr Ned Allen, Lockheed Martin, on measuring and mitigating operational risks in engineered cyber-physical systems.
Dr Emily Shuckburgh, British Antarctic Survey, on future climate change.
Dr Andrew Coburn, Risk Management Solutions: Imagining and doing the “how”.
Dr Miles Elsden, Government Office for Science: Profiles of the future and emerging risks.
Crispin Hawes, Eurasia Group, on geo-political change: dialogue on globalisation, sovereignty, and balance.

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