skip to navigation skip to content
Search
 

Operations & Technology Management

Organisations achieve reliable performance and competitive advantage through the design and management of intra- and inter-organisational projects, processes and routines. The Operations & Technology Management group studies the determinants of superior performance from the perspective of these activities. Focused on practice-based research through deep engagement with partner organisations, group members address a wide spectrum of management challenges and employ a diverse set of research methods, including theoretical, analytical, empirical, and behavioural models that draw from operations research, economics, psychology and sociology, as well as state-of-the-art data analytics techniques applied to large datasets.

The research of the group falls broadly into the following categories:

  • Innovation and new product development (Stelios Kavadias, Christoph Loch, Nektarios Oraiopoulos)
  • Healthcare operations (Feryal Erhun, Houyuan Jiang, Stefan Scholtes)
  • Operations strategy (Jane Davies, Stelios Kavadias, Christoph Loch, Nektarios Oraiopoulos)
  • Supply chain management and risk (Feryal Erhun, Benn Lawson, Daniel Ralph)
  • Behavioural decision-making and behaviour analytics (Christoph Loch, Kishore Sengupta, David Stillwell)

Group members have leading roles in the following research centres:

  • The Entrepreneurship Centre
  • Centre for Health Leadership & Enterprise
  • Centre for Process Excellence & Innovation
  • Centre for Risk Studies
  • The Psychometrics Centre

Faculty

  • Davies, Jane
    Senior Faculty in Management Practice, Director of the MBA Programme, Deputy Director of the Centre for Process Excellence & Innovation (CPEI)
  • Erhun, Feryal
    Reader in Operations Management
  • Hutchison-Krupat, Jeremy
    University Senior Lecturer in Operations & Technology Management
  • Jiang, Houyuan
    Reader in Management Science
  • Kavadias, Stylianos (Stelios)
    Margaret Thatcher Professor of Enterprise Studies in Innovation & Growth, Head of the Operations & Technology Management Subject Group
  • Lawson, Benn
    University Senior Lecturer in Operations Management, Director of the Centre for Process Excellence & Innovation (CPEI)
  • Loch, Christoph H.
    Director of Cambridge Judge Business School, Professor of Management Studies
  • Oraiopoulos, Nektarios
    University Lecturer in Operations Management
  • Ralph, Daniel
    Professor of Operations Research, Academic Director of the Centre for Risk Studies
  • Scholtes, Stefan
    Dennis Gillings Professor of Health Management, Director of the Doctoral and Master of Research Programmes, Academic Director of the Centre for Health Leadership & Enterprise (CCHLE)
  • Sengupta, Kishore
    Reader in Operations Management

Lecturer and Senior Lecturer are equivalent to Assistant Professor in North American terminology. Reader is equivalent to Associate Professor with tenure in North American terminology.

Research & teaching staff

PhD students

Honorary appointments

Group members actively contribute to both academic and business communities. They have published in top-tier academic journals such as Management Science, Operations Research, Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, Journal of Operations Management, Production and Operations Management, Mathematics of Operations Research, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, as well as top-tier management journals such as Harvard Business Review and MIT Sloan Management Review. They currently serve or have served as associate editors at journals such as Management Science, Operations Research, Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, Journal of Operations Management, and Production and Operations Management.

2017

Bonneville-Roussy, A., Stillwell, D., Kosinsky, M., Rust, J. (2017) "Age trends in musical preferences in adulthood: 1. Conceptualization and empirical investigation." Musicae Scientiae (DOI: 10.1177/1029864917691571)

Feldman, G., Huiwen, L., Kosinski, M. and Stillwell, D. (2017) "Frankly, we do give a damn: the relationship between profanity and honesty." Social Psychological and Personality Science (DOI: 10.1177/1948550616681055)

Loch, C.H. (2017) "Has megaproject management lost its way? Lessons from history." In Flyvbjerg, B. (ed.) The Oxford handbook of megaproject management. Oxford: Oxford University Press (forthcoming, ISBN: 9780198732242)

Mao, M., Stillwell, D., Kosinski, M. and Good, D. (2017) "Testing ageing theory among later middle-aged and older users using social media." In: Companion of the 2017 ACM Conference on Computer Supported Cooperative Work and Social Computing. Portland, OR: Association for Computing Machinery, 247-250 (DOI: 10.1145/3022198.3026352)

Park, G., Schwartz, H.A., Sap, M., Kern, M.L., Weingarten, E., Eichstaedt, J.C., Berger, J., Stillwell, D.J., Kosinski, M., Ungar, L.H., et al. (2017) "Living in the past, present, and future: measuring temporal orientation with language." Journal of Personality, 85(2): 270-280 (DOI: 10.1111/jopy.12239)

Rohrer, J.M., Egloff, B., Konsinski, M., Stillwell, D. and Schmukle, S.C. (2017) "In your eyes only? Discrepancies and agreement between self- and other-reports of personality from age 14 to 29." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (DOI: 10.1037/pspp0000142)

Smith, W.B., Steinberg, J., Scholtes, S. and Mcnamara, I.R. (2017) "Medial compartment knee osteoarthritis: age-stratified cost-effectiveness of total knee arthroplasty, unicompartmental knee arthroplasty, and high tibial osteotomy." The Knee Surgery, Sports Traumatology, Arthroscopy, 25(3): 924-933 (DOI: 10.1007/s00167-015-3821-3)

Wu, Y., Schwartz, A., Stillwell, D. and Kosinski, M. (2017) "Birds of a feather do flock together: behavior-based personality-assessment method reveals personality similarity among couples and friends." Psychological Science (DOI: 10.1177/0956797616678187)

2016

Agrawal, V.V., Kavadias, S. and Toktay, L.B. (2016) "The limits of planned obsolescence for conspicuous durable goods." Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 18(2): 216-226 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.2015.0554)

Erhun, F., Malcolm, E., Kalani, M., Brayton, K., Nguyen, C., Asch, S.M., Platchek, T. and Milstein, A. (2016) "Opportunities to improve the value of outpatient surgical care." American Journal of Managed Care, 22(9): e329-e335

Farnadi, G., Sitaraman, G., Sushmita, S., Celli, F., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D., Davalos, S., Moens, M-F. and De Cock, M. (2016) "Computational personality recognition in social media." User Modeling and User-Adapted Interaction, 26(2): 109-142 (DOI: 10.1007/s11257-016-9171-0)

Freeman, M., Savva N, Scholtes, S. (2016) "Gatekeepers at work: an empirical analysis of a maternity unit." Management Science (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2016.2512)

Giallombardo, G., Jiang, H. and Miglionico, G. (2016) "New formulations for the conflict resolution problem in the scheduling of television commercials." Operations Research, 64(4): 838-848 (DOI: 10.1287/opre.2016.1496)

Greenberg, D.M., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D.J., Monteiro, B.L., Levitin, D.J. and Rentfrow, P.J. (2016) "The song is you: preferences for musical attribute dimensions reflect personality." Social Psychological and Personality Science, 7(6): 597-605 (DOI: 10.1177/1948550616641473)

Inkster, B., Stillwell, D., Kosinski, M. and Jones, P. (2016) "A decade into Facebook: where is psychiatry in the digital age?" Lancet Psychiatry, 3(11): 1087-1090 (DOI: 10.1016/S2215-0366(16)30041-4)

Joglekar, N.R., Davies, J. and Anderson, E.J. (2016) "The role of industry studies and public policies in production and operations management." Production and Operations Management, 25(12): 1977-2001 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12640)

Kavadias, S., Ladas, K. and Loch, C. (2016) "The transformative business model." Harvard Business Review, 90-98

Loch, C.H. (2016) "It's not just others: conquering the hubris in yourself." In: Robinson, G. and Garrard, P. (eds.) The intoxication of power. Basingstoke: Palgrave, pp.101-116 (DOI: 10.1057/9781137439666_6)

Loch, C.H. (2016) "Creativity and risk taking aren't rational: behavioral operations in the management of technology." Production and Operations Management (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12666)

Loch, C.H., Mahring, M. and Sommer, S. (2016) "Supervising projects you don't (fully) understand: lessons for effective project governance by steering committees." California Management Review (DOI: 10.17863/CAM.856)

Mahalingam, V., Palkovics, M., Kosinski, M., Cek, I. and Stillwell, D. (2016) "A computer adaptive measure of delay discounting." Assessment (DOI: 10.1177/1073191116680448)

Martani, C., Jin, Y., Soga, K. and Scholtes, S. (2016) "Design with uncertainty: the role of future options for infrastructure integration." Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 31(10): 733-748 (DOI: 10.1111/mice.12214)

Matz, S.C., Gladstone, J.J. and Stillwell, D. (2016) "Money buys happiness when spending fits our personality." Psychological Science, 27(5): 715-725 (DOI: 10.1177/0956797616635200)

Park, G., Yaden, D.B., Schwartz, H.A., Kern, M.L., Eichstaedt, J.C., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D., Ungar, L.H. and Seligman, M.E.P. (2016) "Women are warmer but no less assertive than men: gender and language on Facebook." PLOS ONE, 11(5): e0155885-e0155885 (DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0155885)

Schwartz, H.A., Sap, M., Kern, M.L., Eichstaedt, J.C., Kapelner, A., Agrawal, M., Blanco, E., Dziurzynski, L., Park, G., Stillwell, D., et al. (2016) "Predicting individual well-being through the language of social media." In: Proceedings of the Pacific Symposium on Biocomputing 2016. World Scientific: 516-527 (DOI: 10.1142/9789814749411_0047)

Sting, F.J. and Loch, C.H. (2016) "Implementing operations strategy: how vertical and horizontal coordination interact." Production and Operations Management, 25(7):1177-1193 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12537)

2015

Aghaee, S., Blackwell, A.F., Stillwell, D. and Kosinski, M. (2015) "Personality and intrinsic motivational factors in end-user programming." In: Proceedings of IEEE Symposium on Visual Languages and Human-Centric Computing. Atlanta, GA: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, pp.29-36 (DOI: 10.1109/VLHCC.2015.7357195)

Bilginer, Ö. and Erhun, F. (2015) "Production and sales planning in capacitated new product introductions." Production and Operations Management, 24(1): 42-53 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12225)

Boyd, R.L., Wilson, S.R., Pennebaker, J.W., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D.J. and Mihalcea, R. (2015) "Values in words: using language to evaluate and understand personal values." In: Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Web and Social Media. Oxford: ICWSM, pp.31-40

Crouzeix, J-P, Eberhard, A. and Ralph, D. (2015) "(Convex) level sets integration." Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 171(3): 865-886 (DOI: 10.1007/s10957-015-0795-8)

Erhun, F., Mistry, B., Platchek, T., Milstein, A., Narayanan, V.G. and Kaplan, R.S. (2015) "Time-driven activity-based costing of multivessel coronary artery bypass grafting across national boundaries to identify improvement opportunities: study protocol." BMJ Open, 5(8): e008765 (DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-008765)

Greenberg, D.M., Baron-Cohen, S., Stillwell, D.J., Kosinski, M. and Rentfrow, P.J. (2015) "Musical preferences are linked to cognitive styles." PLoS One, 10(7): e0131151 (DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131151)

Handfield, R.B., Cousins, P.D., Lawson, B. and Petersen, K.J. (2015) "How can supply management really improve performance? A knowledge-based model of alignment capabilities." Journal of Supply Chain Management, 51(3): 3-17 (DOI: 10.1111/jscm.12066)

Hutchison-Krupat, J. and Kavadias, S. (2015) "Strategic resource allocation: top-down, bottom-up, and the value of strategic buckets." Management Science, 61(2): 391-412 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2013.1861)

Karaer, O. and Erhun, F. (2015) "Quality and entry deterrence." European Journal of Operational Research, 240(1): 292-303 (DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2014.07.016)

Kelly, S., Chaplin, A., Coburn, A.W., Copic, J., Evan, T., Neduv, E., Ralph, D., Ruffle, S.J., Schwendner, P., Skelton, A., et al. (2015) Stress test scenario: Eurozone meltdown. Cambridge: Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge.

Kelly, S., Yeo, J.Z., Coburn, A., Copic, J., Crawford-Brown, D., Foley, A., Neduv, E., Ralph, D. and Saidi, F. (2015) Unhedgeable risk: how climate change sentiment impacts investment. Cambridge: Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge.

Kosinski, M., Matz, S.C., Gosling, S.D., Popov, V. and Stillwell, D. (2015) "Facebook as a research tool for the social sciences: opportunities, challenges, ethical considerations, and practical guidelines." American Psychologist, 70(6): 543-556 (DOI: 10.1037/a0039210)

Kuntz, L., Mennicken, R. and Scholtes, S. (2015) "Stress on the ward: evidence of safety tipping points in hospitals." Management Science, 61(4): 754-771 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2014.1917)

Lawson, B., Tyler, B.B. and Potter, A. (2015) "Strategic suppliers' technical contributions to new product advantage: substitution and configuration options." Journal of Product Innovation Management, 32(5): 760-776 (DOI: 10.1111/jpim.12235)

Lawson, B., Krause, D. and Potter, A. (2015) "Improving supplier new product development performance: the role of supplier development." Journal of Product Innovation Management, 32(5): 777-792 (DOI: 10.1111/jpim.12231)

Liu, P., Tov, W., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D.J. and Qiu, L. (2015) "Do Facebook status updates reflect subjective well-being?" Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking, 18(7): 373-379 (DOI: 10.1089/cyber.2015.0022)

Na, J., Kosinski, M. and Stillwell, D.J. (2015) "When a new tool is introduced in different cultural contexts: individualism-collectivism and social network on Facebook." Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 46(3): 355-370 (DOI: 10.1177/0022022114563932)

Özkan-Seely, G.F., Gaimon, C. and Kavadias, S. (2015) "Dynamic knowledge transfer and knowledge development for product and process design teams." Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 17(2): 177-190 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.2014.0507)

Park, G., Schwartz, H.A., Eichstaedt, J.C., Kern, M.L., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D.J., Ungar, L.H. and Seligman, M.E.P. (2015) "Automatic personality assessment through social media language." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 108(6): 934-952 (DOI: 10.1037/pspp0000020)

Ralph, D. and Smeers, Y. (2015) "Risk trading and endogenous probabilities in investment equilibria." SIAM Journal on Optimization, 25(4): 2589-2611 (DOI: 10.1137/110851778)

Schlapp, J., Oraiopoulos, N. and Mak, V. (2015) "Resource allocation decisions under imperfect evaluation and organizational dynamics." Management Science, 61(9): 2139-2159 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2014.2083)

Singh, N., Kavadias, S. and Subramanian, R. (2015) "Product quality and the value of asymmetric information under supplier-specified contracts." Indian School of Business Working Papers Series

Sommer, S.C., Bendoly, E. and Kavadias, S. (2015) "Search strategies in complex and ambiguous problem spaces: performance comparisons across group structures through a controlled experiment." Social Science Research Network (SSRN)

Sting, F.J., Loch, C.H. and Stempfhuber, D. (2015) "Accelerating projects by encouraging help." MIT Sloan Management Review, 56(3): 1-9

Wilmot, M.P., DeYoung, C.G., Stillwell, D. and Kosinski, M. (2015) "Self-monitoring and the metatraits." Journal of Personality, 84(3): 335-347 (DOI: 10.1111/jopy.12162)

Wilmot, M.P., Kostal, J.W., Stillwell, D. and Kosinski, M. (2015) "Using item response theory to develop measures of acquisitive and protective self-monitoring from the original self-monitoring scale." Assessment, (DOI: 10.1177/1073191115615213)

Youyou, W., Kosinski, M. and Stillwell, D. (2015) "Computer-based personality judgments are more accurate than those made by humans." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(4): 1036-1040 (DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1418680112)

2014

Agrawal, V. and Oraiopoulos, N. (2014) "The role of decision rights in collaborative development initiatives." Social Science Research Network (SSRN) (DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2436507)

Bellos, I. and Kavadias, S. (2014) "A framework for service design." Social Science Research Network (SSRN)

Donaghey, J., Reinecke, J., Niforou, C. and Lawson, B. (2014) "From employment relations to consumption relations: balancing labor governance in global supply chains." Human Resource Management, 53(2): 229-252 (DOI: 10.1002/hrm.21552)

Erzurumlu, S.S., Davies, J. and Joglekar, N. (2014) "Managing highly innovative projects: the influence of design characteristics on project valuation." IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 61(2): 349-361 (DOI: 10.1109/TEM.2014.2304957)

Farnadi, G., Sitaraman, G., Rohani, M., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D., Moens, M.F., Davalos, S. and De Cock, M. (2014) "How are you doing? Emotions and personality in Facebook." In: UMAP 2014 Extended Proceedings, 22nd Conference on User Modeling, Adaptation, and Personalization (UMAP2014), Aalborg.

He, Q., Glas, C.A.W., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D.J. and Veldkamp, B.P. (2014) "Predicting self-monitoring skills using textual posts on Facebook." Computers in Human Behavior, 33: 69-78 (DOI: 10.1016/j.chb.2013.12.026)

Hult, E., Jiang, H. and Ralph, D. (2014) "Exact computational approaches to a stochastic uncapacitated single allocation p-hub center problem." Computational Optimization and Applications, 59: 185-200 (DOI: 10.1007/s10589-013-9629-5)

Hult, E., Jiang, H. and Ralph, D. (2014) "Exact computational approaches to a stochastic uncapacitated single allocation p-hub center problem." Computational Optimization and Applications, 59(1): 185-200 (DOI: 10.1007/s10589-013-9629-5)

Jansen, M., Oraiopoulos, N. and Ralph, D. (2014) "Contracting for continuity of mission critical services." In: INFORMS Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA.

Jiang, H. and Miglionico, G. (2014) "Airline network revenue management with buy-up." Optimization, 63(6): 849-865 (DOI: 10.1080/02331934.2014.896079)

Kalkanci, B., Chen, K.Y. and Erhun, F. (2014) "Complexity as a contract design factor: a human-to-human experimental study." Production and Operations Management, 23(2): 269-284 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12067)

Kavadias, S. (2014) "Portfolio decision analysis: improved methods for resource allocation." Imterfaces, 44(1): 113-114 (DOI: 10.1287/inte.2013.0722)

Kavadias, S. (2014) "10-year anniversary of the new product development, R&D, and project management department in production and operations management - progress, thoughts, and perspectives." Production and Operations Management, 23 (8): 1259-1264 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12256)

Kern, M.L., Eichstaedt, J.C., Schwartz, H.A., Park, G., Ungar, L.H., Stillwell, D.J., Kosinski, M., Dziurzynski, L. and Seligman, M.E.P. (2014) "From 'Sooo excited!!!' to 'So proud': using language to study development." Developmental Psychology, 50(1): 178-188 (DOI: 10.1037/a0035048)

Kim, Y.H., Sting, F.J. and Loch, C.H. (2014) "Top-down, bottom-up, or both? Toward an integrative perspective on operations strategy formation." Journal of Operations Management, 32(7-8): 462-474 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jom.2014.09.005)

Kosinski, M., Bachrach, Y., Kohli, P., Stillwell, D. and Graepel, T. (2014) "Manifestations of user personality in website choice and behaviour on online social networks." Machine Learning, 95(3): 357-380 (DOI: 10.1007/s10994-013-5415-y)

Lee, Y.S. and Scholtes, S. (2014) "Empirical prediction intervals revisited." International Journal of Forecasting, 30(2): 217-234 (DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.018)

Mahalingam, V., Stillwell, D., Kosinski, M., Rust, J. and Kogan, A. (2014) "Who can wait for the future? A personality perspective." Social Psychological and Personality Science, 5(5): 573-583 (DOI: 10.1177/1948550613515007)

Oraiopoulos, N. and Kavadias, S. (2014) "The path-dependent nature of R&D search: implications for (and from) competition." Production and Operations Management, 23(8): 1450-1461 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12198)

Rife, S.C., Cate, K.L., Kosinski, M. and Stillwell, D. (2014) "Participant recruitment and data collection through Facebook: the role of personality factors." International Journal of Social Research Methodology, 19(1): 69-83 (DOI: 10.1080/13645579.2014.957069)

Roden, S. and Lawson, B. (2014) "Developing social capital in buyer-supplier relationships: the contingent effect of relationship-specific adaptations." International Journal of Production Economics, 151: 89-99 (DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2014.01.008)

Sap, M., Park, G., Eichstaedt, J.C., Kern, M.L., Stillwell, D., Kosinski, M. and Ungar, L.H. (2014) "Developing age and gender predictive lexica over social media." In: Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), Association for Computational Linguistics.

Savva, N. and Scholtes, S. (2014) "Opt-out options in new product co-development partnerships." Production and Operations Management, 23(8): 1370-1386 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12059)

Schwartz, H.A., Eichstaedt, J., Kern, M.L., Park, G., Sap, M., Stillwell, D., Kosinski, M. and Ungar, U. (2014) "Towards assessing changes in degree of depression through Facebook." In: Workshop on Computational Linguistics and Clinical Psychology: From Linguistic Signal to Clinical Reality, Association for Computational Linguistics.

Usta, M., Erhun, F. and Hausman, W.H. (2014) "Supply licensing when the manufacturer strategically commits to invest in R&D." Naval Research Logistics, 61(4): 341-350 (DOI: 10.1002/nav.21586)

Wang, N., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D.J. and Rust, J. (2014) "Can well-being be measured using facebook status updates? Validation of Facebook's gross national happiness index." Social Indicators Research, 115(1): 483-491 (DOI: 10.1007/s11205-012-9996-9)

2013

Cantador, I., Fernandez-Tobias, I., Bellogin, A., Kosinski, M. and Stillwell, D. (2013) "Relating personality types with user preferences in multiple entertainment domains." In: EMPIRE 2013 Workshop at UMAP Conference, Rome, Italy.

Chao, R.O. and Kavadias, S. (2013) "R&D intensity and the new product development portfolio." IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 60(4): 664-675 (DOI: 10.1109/TEM.2013.2257792)

Chung Y.T. and Erhun, F. (2013) "Designing supply contracts for perishable goods with two periods of shelf life." IIE Transactions (Institute of Industrial Engineers), 45(1): 53-67 (DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2012.654847)

Davies, J. and Joglekar, N. (2013) "Supply chain integration, product modularity, and market valuation: evidence from the solar energy industry." Production and Operations Management, 22(6): 1494-1508 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12052)

Erat, S., Kavadias, S. and Gaimon, C. (2013) "The pitfalls of subsystem integration: when less is more." Management Science, 59(3): 659-676 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1120.1592)

Hogarth, L., Stillwell, D.J. and Tunney, R.J. (2013) "BIS impulsivity and acute nicotine exposure are associated with discounting global consequences in the Harvard game." Human Psychopharmacology: Clinical and Experimental, 28(1): 72-79 (DOI: 10.1002/hup.2285)

Holmberg, P., Newbery, D., and Ralph, D. (2013) "Supply function equilibria: step functions and continuous representations." Journal of Economic Theory, 148(4): 1509-1551 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2013.04.020)

Hutchison-Krupat, J. and Kavadias, S. (2013) "Incentive design for cross-functional teams." Social Science Research Network (SSRN) (DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1604727)

Kayis, E., Erhun, F. and Plambeck, E.L. (2013) "Delegation vs. control of component procurement under asymmetric cost information and simple contracts." Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 15(1): 45-56 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.1120.0395)

Kempf, K.G., Erhun, F., Hertzler, E.F., Rosenberg, T.R. and Peng, C. (2013) "Optimizing capital investment decisions at Intel Corporation." Interfaces, 43(1): 62-78 (DOI: 10.1287/inte.1120.0659)

Kern, M.L., Eichstaedt, J.C., Schwartz, H.A., Dziurzynski, L., Ungar, L.H., Stillwell, D.J., Kosinski, M., Ramones, S.M. and Seligman, M.E.P. (2013) "The online social self: an open vocabulary approach to personality." Assessment, 21(2): 158-169 (DOI: 10.1177/1073191113514104)

Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D. and Graepel, T. (2013) "Private traits and attributes are predictable from digital records of human behavior." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(15): 5802-5805 (DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1218772110)

Kraft, T., Erhun, F., Carlson, R.C. and Rafinejad, D. (2013) "Replacement decisions for potentially hazardous substances." Production and Operations Management, 22(4): 958-975 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12021)

Kraft, T., Zheng, Y. and Erhun, F. (2013) "The NGO's dilemma: how to influence firms to replace a potentially hazardous substance." Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 15(4): 649-669 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.2013.0440)

Kuntz, L. and Scholtes, S. (2013) "Physicians in leadership: the association between medical director involvement and staff-to-patient ratios." Health Care Management Science, 16(2): 129-138 (DOI: 10.1007/s10729-012-9218-7)

Loch, C.H., Sengupta, K. and Ahmad, M.G. (2013) "The microevolution of routines: how problem solving and social preferences interact." Organization Science, 24(1): 99-115 (DOI: 10.1287/orsc.1110.0719)

Markovikj, D., Gievska, S., Kosinski, M. and Stillwell, D. (2013) "Mining Facebook data for predictive personality modeling." In: Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, Cambridge, MA.

Chung, Y.T., Erhun, F. and Kraft, T. (2013) "Improving Stanford Blood Center's platelet supply chain." In: Munson, C. (ed.) The supply chain management casebook. New Jersey: FT Press, Chapter 2 (Case 3), pp. 39-49

Potter, A. and Lawson, B. (2013) "Help or hindrance? Causal ambiguity and supplier involvement in new product development teams." Journal of Product Innovation Management, 30(4): 794-808 (DOI: 10.1111/jpim.12027)

Rentfrow, P.J., Gosling, S.D., Jokela, M., Stillwell, D.J., Kosinski, M. and Potter, J. (2013) "Divided we stand: three psychological regions of the United States and their political, economic, social, and health correlates." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 105(6): 996-1012 (DOI: 10.1037/a0034434)

Schwartz, H.A., Eichstaedt, J.C., Dziurzynski, L., Kern, M.L., Blanco, E., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D., Seligman, M.E.P. and Ungar, L.H. (2013) "Toward personality insights from language exploration in social media." In: 2013 AAAI Spring Symposium Series, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, Palo Alto, CA.

Schwartz, H.A., Eichstaedt, J.C., Kern, M.L., Dziurzynski, L., Ramones, S.M., Agrawal, M., Shah, A., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D., Seligman, M.E.P., et al. (2013) "Personality, gender, and age in the language of social media: the open-vocabulary approach." PLoS ONE, 8(9): e73791-e73791 (DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0073791)

Urda, J. and Loch, C.H. (2013) "Social preferences and emotions as regulators of behavior in processes." Journal of Operations Management, 31(1-3): 6-23 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jom.2012.11.007)

Wogrin, S., Hobbs, B.F., Ralph, D., Centeno, E. and Barquin, J. (2013) "Open versus closed loop capacity equilibria in electricity markets under perfect and oligopolistic competition." Mathematical Programming, 140(2): 295-322 (DOI: 10.1007/s10107-013-0696-2)

2012

Bachrach, Y., Kosinski, M., Graepel, T., Kohli, P. and Stillwell, D. (2012) "Personality and patterns of Facebook usage." In: Proceedings of the 4th Annual ACM Web Science Conference, Web Science, Evanston, IL. (DOI: 10.1145/2380718.2380722)

Cui, Z., Loch, C., Grossmann, B. and He, R. (2012) "How provider selection and management contribute to successful innovation outsourcing: an empirical study at Siemens." Production and Operations Management, 21(1): 29-48 (DOI: 10.1111/j.1937-5956.2011.01237.x)

Eralp, M.N., Scholtes, S., Martell, G., Winter, R. and Exley, A.R. (2012) "Screening of healthcare workers for tuberculosis: development and validation of a new health economic model to inform practice." BMJ Open, 2: e000630 (DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2011-000630)

Jiang, H., Pang, Z. and Savin, S. (2012) "Performance-based contracts for outpatient medical services." Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 14(4): 654-669 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.1120.0402)

Kalkanci, B. and Erhun, F. (2012) "Pricing games and impact of private demand information in decentralized assembly systems." Operations Research, 60(5): 1142-1156 (DOI: 10.1287/opre.1120.1084)

Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D., Kohli, P., Bachrach, Y. and Graepel, T. (2012) "Personality and website choice." In: Proceedings of the 4th Annual ACM Web Science Conference, Web Science, Evanston, IL.

Kraft, T., Chung, Y.T. and Erhun, F. (2012) "Case article: KEY Electronics - sourcing and warehouse analysis." INFORMS Transactions on Education, 12(2): 89-91 (DOI: 10.1287/ited.1110.0065ca)

Lawson, B. and Potter, A. (2012) "Determinants of knowledge transfer in inter-firm new product development projects." International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 32(10): 1228-1247 (DOI: 10.1108/01443571211274530)

Lawson, B., Samson, D. and Roden, S. (2012) "Appropriating the value from innovation: inimitability and the effectiveness of isolating mechanisms." R&D Management, 42(5): 420-434 (DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9310.2012.00692.x)

Lévesque, M., Joglekar, N. and Davies, J. (2012) "A comparison of revenue growth at recent-IPO and established firms: the influence of SG&A, R&D and COGS." Journal of Business Venturing, 27(1): 47-61 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2010.08.001)

Loch, C.H., Sting, F.J., Huchzermeier, A. and Decker, C. (2012) "Finding the profit in fairness." Harvard Business Review, 90(9)

Oraiopoulos, N. and Kavadias, S. (2012) "Senior management committees: do more diverse perspectives lead to fewer project selection errors?" Social Science Research Network (SSRN) (DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2136927)

Oraiopoulos, N., Ferguson, M.E. and Toktay, L.B. (2012) "Relicensing as a secondary market strategy." Management Science, 58(5): 1022-1037 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1110.1456)

Peng, C., Erhun, F., Hertzler, E.F. and Kempf, K.G. (2012) "Capacity planning in the semiconductor industry: dual-mode procurement with options." Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 14(2): 170-185 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.1110.0361)

Potter, A., Murray, J., Lawson, B. and Graham, S. (2012) "Trends in product recalls within the agri-food industry: empirical evidence from the USA, UK and the Republic of Ireland." Trends in Food Science & Technology, 28(2): 77-86 (DOI: 10.1016/j.tifs.2012.06.017)

Quercia, D., Las Casas, D.B., Pesce, J.P., Stillwell, D., Kosinski, M., Almeida, V. and Crowcroft, J. (2012) "Facebook and privacy: the balancing act of personality, gender, and relationship currency." In: Proceedings of the Sixth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM), Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, Palo Alto, CA.

Quercia, D., Lambiotte, R., Stillwell, D., Kosinski, M. and Crowcroft, J. (2012) "The personality of popular Facebook users." In: Proceedings of the ACM Conference on Computer Supported Cooperative Work (CSCW) (DOI: 10.1145/2145204.2145346)

Rentfrow, P.J., Goldberg, L.R., Stillwell, D.J., Kosinski, M., Gosling, S.D. and Levitin, D.J. (2012) "The song remains the same: a replication and extension of the MUSIC model." Music Percept, 30(2): 161-185 (DOI: 10.1525/mp.2012.30.2.161)

Scholtes, S. (2012) Introduction to piecewise differentiable equations. New York: Springer (DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4614-4340-7)

Stillwell, D.J. and Tunney, R.J. (2012) "Effects of measurement methods on the relationship between smoking and delay reward discounting." Addiction, 107(5): 1003-1012 (DOI: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2011.03742.x)

Stillwell, D.J. and Tunney, R.J. (2012) "Individuals' insight into intrapersonal externalities." Judgment and Decision Making, 7(4): 390-401

Wagner, S.M., Grosse-Ruyken, P.T. and Erhun, F. (2012) "The link between supply chain fit and financial performance of the firm." Journal of Operations Management, 30(4): 340-353 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jom.2012.01.001)

Welbourne, J., Gupta, A., Scholtes, S., Dean, J. and Ahluwalia, J. (2012) "Training: where tomorrow's leaders hit new heights." Health Service Journal, 122(6327):19-21

2011

Bellos, I. and Kavadias, S. (2011) "The design challenges of experiential services." Social Science Research Network (SSRN) (DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1912166)

Bhattacharya, S. and Kavadias, S. (2011) "Optimal sequential investments in new product development with emerging technologies and learning." INSEAD Working Paper Series (DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1959968)

Carey, S. and Lawson, B. (2011) "Governance and social capital formation in buyer‐supplier relationships." Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, 22(2): 152-170 (DOI: 10.1108/17410381111102199)

Carey, S., Lawson, B. and Krause, D.R. (2011) "Social capital configuration, legal bonds and performance in buyer-supplier relationships." Journal of Operations Management, 29(4): 277-288 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jom.2010.08.003)

Cousins, P.D., Lawson, B., Petersen, K.J. and Handfield, R.B. (2011) "Breakthrough scanning, supplier knowledge exchange, and new product development performance." Journal of Product Innovation Management, 28(6): 930-942 (DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5885.2011.00854.x)

de Neufville, R. and Scholtes, S. (2011) Flexibility in engineering design (engineering systems). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press (ISBN: 9780262016230)

Erhun Oguz, F. (2011) "Contract complexity and performance." In: Geunes J. (ed.) Tutorials in operations research: transforming research into action. Hanover: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS): 126-147 (DOI: 10.1287/educ.1110.0089)

Erhun Oguz, F. and Bílgíner, O. (2011) "Managing product introductions and transitions." In: Wiley encyclopedia of operations research and management science. (DOI: 10.1002/9780470400531.eorms0489)

Erhun Oguz, F. and Deleris, L.A. (2011) "Quantitative risk assessment in supply chains: a case study based on engineering risk analysis concepts." In: Kempf, K.G., Keskinocak, P. and Uzsoy, R. (eds.) Planning production and inventories in the extended enterprise: a state-of-the-art handbook. New York: Springer, International Series in Operations Research & Management Science (152): 105-131 (DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4419-8191-2_5)

Erhun Oguz, F., Keskinocak, P. and Tayur, S. (2011) "Dynamic procurement, quantity discounts, and supply chain efficiency." In: Choi T.M. and Cheng T.C.E. (eds.) Supply chain coordination under uncertainty. Springer Science & Business Media, 1: 219-233 (DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-19257-9_9)

Erhun, F. (2011) "Collaborative procurement." In: Cochran J.J., Cox, L.A., Keskinocak, P., Kharoufeh, J.P. and Cole Smith, J. (eds.) Wiley encyclopedia of operations research and management science (DOI: 10.1002/9780470400531.eorms0156)

Hagger-Johnson, G., Egan, V. and Stillwell, D. (2011) "Are social networking profiles reliable indicators of sensational interests?" Journal of Research in Personality, 45(1): 71-76 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jrp.2010.11.013)

Jiang, H. and Pang, Z. (2011) "Network capacity management under competition." Computational Optimization and Applications, 50(2): 287-326 (DOI: 10.1007/s10589-010-9340-8)

Jiang, H., Netessine, S. and Savin, S. (2011) "Robust newsvendor competition under asymmetric information." Operations Research, 59(1): 254-261 (DOI: 10.1287/opre.1100.0858)

Kalkanci, B., Chen, K.Y. and Erhun, F. (2011) "Contract complexity and performance under asymmetric demand information: an experimental evaluation." Management Science, 57(4): 689-704 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1110.1318)

Loch, C. and Kavadias, S. (2011) "Implementing strategy through projects." In: Morris, P.W.G., Pinto, J. and Söderlund, J. (eds.) The Oxford handbook of project management. Oxford: Oxford University Press (DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199563142.003.0010)

Loch, C.H. and Payne, F. (2011) "Strategic management: developing policies and strategies." In: Cooke-Davies, T. (ed.) Aspects of complexity: managing projects in a complex world. Atlanta, GA: Project Management Institute.

Privett, N. and Erhun, F. (2011) "Efficient funding: auditing in the nonprofit sector." Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 13(4): 471-488 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.1110.0345)

Quercia, D., Kosinski, M., Stillwell, D. and Crowcroft J. (2011) "Our Twitter profiles, our selves: predicting personality with Twitter." In: Proceedings - 2011 IEEE International Conference on Privacy, Security, Risk and Trust and IEEE International Conference on Social Computing, IEEE (DOI: 10.1109/PASSAT/SocialCom.2011.26)

Ralph, D. and Stein, O. (2011) "The C-Index: a new stability concept for quadratic programs with complementarity constraints." Mathematics of Operations Research, 36(3): 504-526 (DOI: 10.1287/moor.1110.0501)

Ralph, D. and Xu, H.F. (2011) "Convergence of stationary points of sample average two-stage stochastic programs: a generalized equation approach." Mathematics of Operations Research, 36(3): 568-592 (DOI: 10.1287/moor.1110.0506)

Wu, Y., Loch, C. and Ahmad, G. (2011) "Status and relationships in social dilemmas of teams." Journal of Operations Management, 29(7-8): 650-662 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jom.2011.03.004)

The research agenda of the group is stimulated by regular contacts with senior personnel of regional, national and international organisations such as Bank of China, British Airways, BP, Ernst & Young, Ofgem, Defra, Shell, UK Department for Transport, NICE and Cambridge University Hospitals.

The group also maintains long-standing collaborations with leading academics and cognate groups in the UK, Europe and across the Atlantic.

Previous seminars

Easter Term 2018

Unintended Consequences of Hospital Regulation: The Case of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP)
Dr Nicos Savva, London Business School

12:30-14:00, 18 May 2018
Room W4.03, Cambridge Judge Business School

Abstract

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010 represents one of the most significant regulatory overhauls of the United State healthcare system since the initial establishment of Medicare and Medicaid. While attention has largely been directed towards provisions that expanded medical coverage, the ACA also established several incentive schemes aimed at reforming the care delivery process by holding hospitals accountable for their performance in order to rein in costs and improve quality. One of the first such schemes introduced was the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP), which requires the Centres of Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to reduce payments to hospitals that exhibit higher than average 30-day risk-adjusted readmission rates.

This paper examines the impact of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) on hospitals’ admission behaviour. We exploit variation in hospitals’ financial exposure to HRRP penalties due to i) readmission performance, and ii) financial constraints, to show that hospitals reduced readmissions post HRRP at least to some extent by increasing the number of patients that were classified as admitted for “observation.” Under this classification patients do not count as admissions for HRRP purposes. This increase is estimated to be 12.7 per cent more for hospitals that were exposed to HRRP penalties compared to non-penalised hospitals, and as much as 31.1 per cent if the hospital was also financially constrained.

The magnitude of this effect is operationally significant; rough calculations suggest that over 40 per cent of the readmission reduction that followed HRRP can be attributed to the change in observation bed usage. Our results also have implications for the implementation of HRRP which is based on average-performance benchmarks. When hospitals use observations beds to reduce their readmission figures, they also lower the average readmission rate against which other hospitals are penalised, hurting high-performing hospitals not managing readmissions though observation beds.

Research co-authored by Chris Chen.

Speaker bio

Nicos Savva is an Associate Professor of Management Science and Operations at London Business School, where he teaches courses on data analytics, modelling, and healthcare management. Nicos’s research examines healthcare operations and innovation and has appeared in leading journals such as Management Science, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, and Production and Operations Management. Nicos holds editorial positions in Management Science, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, and Production and Operations Management. He holds a PhD in Management Science, an MPhil in Finance, and an MA in Natural Science (Physics), all from the University of Cambridge.

The Effect of Flexibility in Delegating Innovation
Dr Morvarid Rahmani, Scheller College of Business, Georgia Tech

12:30-14:00, 22 May 2018
Room W2.02, Cambridge Judge Business School

Abstract

In many contexts such as product design and advertising, clients seek the expertise of external providers to generate innovative solutions for their business problems. In such delegated engagements, providers can improve the quality of solutions through the intensity of their efforts, and clients can evaluate solutions and decide when to stop the project. In this paper, we explore how the client's flexibility in stopping the project influences the progress and efficiency of the delegated innovation. In particular, we compare two structures: "committed", where the client stops the project immediately if the provider delivers an acceptable solution, and "open-ended", where the client retains the flexibility to continue the project even after receiving an acceptable solution. We show that, when innovation is delegated, the client's flexibility can lead to lower early efforts by the provider and thus may not always benefit the client. We generate insights regarding the appropriateness of the two structures with respect to the problem difficulty and provider's capability. In addition, we extend our model and analysis in several directions by capturing the effects of client's transparency, optimal payments, project timeline, and provider's capability improvement.

Speaker bio

Morvarid Rahmani is an Assistant Professor of Operations Management, at the Scheller College of Business, at Georgia Tech. She received her PhD from the UCLA Anderson School of Management. She also received three masters degrees, in Industrial Engineering, Electrical Engineering, and Economics.
Dr Rahmani's research brings together the operational perspective of process improvement and the economic perspective of innovation and collaboration. Her research focuses on the study of the dynamics of collaboration in knowledge-based work processes such as new product or service development, management and IT consulting, technical projects, and education. Her research generates insights for advancing strategic decision-making, both across organisations and within them. She has published her research in Management Science, and Production and Operations Management journals. Her dissertation research paper on Collaborative Work Dynamics was a finalist in the Manufacturing & Service Operations Management Best Student Paper Competition.

Dr Rahmani has taught Core Operations Management in full-time and evening MBA programmes, and a seminar course on Managing Innovation and Product Development in the PhD programme at the Scheller College of Business. She has received the Brady Family Award for Faculty Teaching Excellence at the Scheller College of Business.

CANCELLED: Prioritising Access to Hepatitis C Treatment in Correctional Health Facilities
Dr Turgay Ayer, H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial & Systems Engineering

12:30-14:00, 25 May 2018
Room W4.03, Cambridge Judge Business School

Abstract

About one out of six inmates in the United States (US) is infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence in prison systems is 10 times higher than the general population, and hence prison systems offer a unique opportunity to control the HCV epidemic. New HCV treatment drugs are very effective, but providing treatment to all inmates is prohibitively expensive, which precludes universal HCV treatment in prison systems. As such, current practice recommends prioritising treatment based on clinical and incarceration-related factors, including disease staging, remaining sentence length, and injection drug use (IDU) status. However, there is controversy about how these factors should be incorporated because of the complicated tradeoffs.

In this study, we propose a restless bandit modelling framework to support hepatitis C treatment prioritisation decisions in US prisons. We first prove indexability for our problem and derive several structural properties of the well-known Whittle's index, based on which, we derive a closed-form expression of the Whittle's index for patients with advanced liver disease. From the interpretation of this closed-form expression, we anticipate that the performance of the Whittle's index would degrade as the treatment capacity increases; and to address this limitation, we propose a capacity-adjusted closed-form index policy. We parameterise and validate our model using real-world data from Georgia state prison system and published studies. We test the performance of our proposed policy using a detailed, clinically-realistic simulation model and show that our proposed policy can significantly improve the overall effectiveness of the hepatitis C treatment programmes in prisons compared with the current practice and other benchmark policies, including the commonly used Whittle's index policy.

Our results also shed light on several controversial health policy issues in hepatitis C treatment prioritisation in the prison setting and have important policy implications including: 1) prioritisation based on only liver health status, a commonly practiced policy, is suboptimal compared with many other policies we consider. Further, considering remaining sentence length of inmates and IDU status in addition to liver health status in prioritisation decisions can lead to a significant performance improvement; 2) the decision of whether to prioritise patients with shorter or longer remaining sentence lengths depends on the treatment capacities inside and outside the prison system, and prioritising patients with shorter remaining sentence lengths may be preferable in some cases, especially if the treatment capacity inside the prison system is not very tight and linkage-to-care level outside prison system is low; and 3) among patients with advanced liver disease, IDUs should not be prioritised unless their reinfection is very-well controlled. Lastly, we introduce and discuss a decision support tool we have developed for practical use.

Speaker bio

Turgay Ayer is the George Family Foundation Early Career professor and an associate professor at Industrial and Systems Engineering, and is the research director for medical decision-making in the Center for Health & Humanitarian Systems at Georgia Tech. In addition, Dr Ayer has a courtesy appointment at Emory Medical School.

His research focuses on healthcare analytics, with applications in predictive health, medical decision making, healthcare operations, and health policy. His research papers have been published in top tier engineering, management, and medical journals, and covered by popular media outlets, including the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, US News, and NPR.

Dr Ayer has received several awards for his work, including an NSF CAREER Award (2015), Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM) Lee Lusted Award (2009), first place in the MSOM Best Practice-Based Research Competition (2017), and a finalist in the 2017 INFORMS Franz Edelman Competition (2017).

Ayer received a BS in industrial engineering from Sabanci University in Istanbul, Turkey, and his MS and PhD degrees in industrial and Systems Engineering from the University of Wisconsin - Madison.

Ayer is a member of INFORMS and Society for Medical Decision Making, an associate editor for Operations Research, and is a past president of the INFORMS Health Application Society.

Lent Term 2018

Supply Chain Management through Cascading
Dr Feryal Erhun, Cambridge Judge Business School

12:30-14:00, 9 January 2018
Room W2.01, Cambridge Judge Business School

Abstract

This study focuses on contracting for a three-tier supply chain consisting of a buyer, tier one supplier, and tier two sub-supplier where disruptions of random length occur at tier two. As is common in many supply chains, the buyer has a direct relationship with the tier one supplier but not the tier two sub-supplier; that is, the buyer has limited supply chain visibility. Both the supplier and sub-supplier can reserve emergency capacity prior to observing the disruption to protect the supply chain from the disruption. The study looks at how the buyer and the supplier can guarantee that the correct level of emergency capacity is built prior to the disruption. Due to two types of inefficiencies - a special form of double-marginalisation and the substitution effect - the supply chain is misaligned in its decentralised form. Although the lack of visibility prevents the buyer from directly contracting with the sub-supplier to eliminate these inefficiencies, they can still coordinate the supply chain through cascading, for example, contracting with the supplier, who in turn contracts with the sub-supplier. Despite supply chain coordination, the supplier benefits from the buyer’s limited supply chain visibility.

Collaborative work with Dr Georg Schorpp and Professor Hau Lee.

Speaker bio

Dr Feryal Erhun is Reader in Operations Management Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge. Feryal’s research interests are in the topic of supply chain management, including risk management in supply chains, new product transitions, and supply contracts. Her current research also includes studies healthcare operations.

Dr Erhun is a strong proponent of practice-based research. In collaboration with Intel Corporation, her research group has designed a decision-support system for optimising capital investment decisions for firms in capital-intensive industries. This work has been selected as one of the finalists in the 2012 Edelman competition and Feryal has been inducted as an Edelman Laureate. She is also a recipient of 2006 NSF CAREER Award.

Feryal serves on the editorial boards of Manufacturing and Service Operations Management and Production and Operations Management. She received her PhD in Business Administration, with a concentration in Production and Operations Management from the Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Mellon University in 2002. She holds a BS and a MS in Industrial Engineering from Bilkent University.

A Large-Scale Optimisation Model for Replicating Portfolios in the Life Insurance Industry
Professor Karl Schmedders, University of Zurich

13:00-14:00, 16 January 2018
Room W2.02, Cambridge Judge Business School

Abstract

Replicating portfolios have emerged as an important tool in the life insurance industry, used for the valuation of companies' liabilities. This paper describes the replicating portfolio (RP) model for approximating life insurance liabilities in place in a large global insurance company. We describe the challenges presented by the latest solvency regimes in Europe and how the RP model enables this company to comply with the Swiss Solvency Test. The model minimises the L1 error between the discounted life insurance liability cash flows and the discounted RP cash flows over a multi-period time horizon for a broad range of different future economic scenarios. A numerical application of the RP model to empirical data sets demonstrates that the model delivers RPs that match the liabilities and perform well for economic capital calculations.

Speaker bio

Karl Schmedders has been a Professor of Quantitative Business Administration in the Faculty of Business, Economics, and Informatics at the University in Zurich since 2008. In addition, he is a Visiting Professor of Executive Education at the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University in Evanston, USA.

Karl received a PhD in operations research from Stanford University in 1996. After a two-year post-doc at the Hoover Institution, a thinktank on the Stanford campus, he became an assistant professor of managerial economics and decision sciences at the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University. He was promoted to associate professor in 2001 and received tenure at Kellogg in 2005. He continued to work at Kellogg until his departure to Zurich.

His research focuses on computational economics and finance. He applies numerical solution techniques to complex economic and financial models shedding light on relevant practical problems. He has published numerous research articles in international academic journals such as Econometrica, The Review of Economic Studies, The Journal of Finance, and The Review of Financial Studies, among others.

Project Selection and Investment Carryovers in the Drug Development Process
Panos Markou, Cambridge Judge Business School

12:00-14:00, 12 March 2018
Castle Teaching Room, Cambridge Judge Business School

Abstract

In developing new products, firms must balance entering into new domains (high uncertainty) with exploiting old domains (high competition). We leverage a unique database and rebuild the drug development pipelines of the Top 15 pharmaceutical companies between 1999-2016 in order to examine how firms select which projects to pursue and what impacts project success and failure. We find that firms select projects where they have prior experience, but that selection also depends on technological signals from rivals. Early-stage, uninformative technological signals increase the likelihood that the firm will diversify its search efforts to other domains, whereas late-stage, informative signals increase the likelihood of moving into the domain, but only if the rivals do not have a substantially large head-start. Moreover, conditional on selecting a project for further development, prior successful investments inform the firm as to what solutions work in a domain and increase the likelihood of future success. Prior failed investments inform as to what does not work and increase the likelihood of terminating future projects earlier.

Speaker bio

Panos Markou is a Research Assistant at the Entrepreneurship at Cambridge Judge Business School. He is a strong believer in research that is grounded in practice and has the potential for large impact and relevance. Currently, he is working with BMW to analyse their portfolio of purchasing contracts and optimise their procurement and financial hedging strategy. During his doctoral studies, he worked with BMW to develop and implement a tool to evaluate commodity price indices for index-linked purchase contracts. Prior to this, Panos collaborated with Banco Santander in organising and hosting the 6th Annual Supply Chain Finance Symposium, and with Delta Air Lines in the TechOps Division. His research interests include the interface of finance, operations, and risk management; supply chain finance; empirical operations management.

Warning Against Recurring Risks: An Information Design Approach
Professor Francis de Vericourt, European School of Management and Technology

12:30-14:00, 20 March 2018
Room W2.01, Cambridge Judge Business School

Abstract

The World Health Organization seeks effective ways to alert its member states about global pandemics. Motivated by this challenge, this study focuses on a public agency’s problem of designing warning policies to mitigate potential disasters that occur with advance notice. The agency privately receives early information about recurring harmful events and issues warnings to induce an uninformed party to take costly pre-emptive actions. The agency’s decision about whether to issue a warning critically depends on its credibility, which we define as the uninformed party’s belief regarding the accuracy of the agency’s information. This belief is updated over time by comparing the agency’s warnings with the actual incidence of harmful events. The sender, therefore, faces a trade-off between eliciting a proper response today and maintaining her credibility in order to elicit responses to future adverse events. The study formulates this problem as a dynamic Bayesian persuasion game, which is solved in closed form. Findings show that the agency must be sufficiently credible to elicit a mitigating action from the uninformed party for a given period. More importantly, the agency sometimes strategically misrepresents its advance information about a current threat in order to cultivate its future credibility. When its credibility is low (for example, below a threshold), the agency downplays the risk and actually downplays more as its credibility improves. By contrast, when its credibility is high (for example, above a second higher threshold), the agency sometimes exaggerates the threat. In this case, a less credible agency exaggerates more. Only when the agency’s credibility is moderate does it consistently send warning messages that fully disclose its private information about a potential disaster. These findings provide prescriptive guidelines for designing warning policies and suggest a plausible rationale for some of the false alarms or omissions observed in practice.

Speaker bio

Francis de Véricourt is Professor of Management Science at ESMT European School of Management and Technology. From August 2010 until August 2013 he was on leave at INSEAD, where he was an Associate Professor of Technology and Operations Management and the Paul Dubrule Chaired Professor of Sustainable Development. He was the Associate Dean of Research at ESMT from 2007 to 2010. Before joining ESMT in 2007, Francis was an Associate Professor of Operations Management at Fuqua School of Business, Duke University. In 2000, he was a post-doctoral researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Francis received his PhD in Operations Research with Honours from Université Paris VI, France, in 2000. He holds an honours degree in Engineering in Applied Mathematics and Information Technology from Ecole Nationale Supérieure d'lnformatique et de Mathematiques Appliquées de Grenoble (ENSIMAG).

Francis’s general research interest is in the area of data-driven and managerial decision-making, with a current focus on healthcare, business sustainability, and service systems. He is the author of many research articles and has extensively published in leading academic journals, including Management Science, Operations Research, and American Economic Review. For his research, he has received a number of outstanding awards, including the 2011 MSOM best paper award of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. He also holds editorial positions in flagship journals in operations research and management science.

Francis received numerous teaching awards for delivering classes to MBA and Executive MBA students at ESMT and INSEAD. He frequently teaches Executive Education Programs and is a regular speaker in academic and industry forums.

Proactive Customer Service: Operational and Economic Analysis
Dr Tolga Tezcan, London Business School

12:30-14:00, 23 March 2018
Room W4.03, Cambridge Judge Business School

Abstract

This seminar focuses on the study of a service setting where the provider may have advance information about customers' future service needs and may initiate service for these customers proactively. Information about future customer service needs is becoming increasingly available due to better system integration coupled with advanced analytics and Big Data methods. To study this setting, the research combines (i) queueing theory, and in particular a diffusion approximation developed specifically for this problem, to quantify the impact of proactive service on customer delays with (ii) game theory to investigate the incentives of customers to agree to be served proactively. Findings show that proactive service reduces average delays, and we develop a closed-form approximation that shows that the benefit of proactive service is increasing concave in the proportion of customers who can be served proactively. Nevertheless, the study finds that in equilibrium, customers are less willing to agree to be served proactively compared to social optimum because of a positive externality leading to free riding behaviour, customers who agree to be served proactively reduce the waiting time for everyone, including those customers who do not have to suffer the inconvenience of being served proactively. The results suggest that proactive service may have a large operational benefit, but caution that it may fail to fulfil its potential due to customer self-interested behaviour.

Joint work with Kraig Delana and Nicos Savva.

Speaker bio

Dr Tolga Tezcan is an Associate Professor of Management Science and Operations at London Business School. He teaches courses in Data Mining and Business Analytics. Prior to joining LBS, he was a faculty member at Simon School of Business at the University of Rochester between 2010 and 2015, where he was placed in the teaching honour roll in 2014, and at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign between 2006 and 2010.

Tolga holds a PhD in Industrial and Systems Engineering and an MS in Mathematics from Georgia Tech, an MS in Industrial and Systems Engineering from Colorado State-Pueblo, and a BS in Industrial Engineering from Bilkent University, Turkey. Tolga’s research focuses on the robust management of service systems, such as customer service centres and healthcare systems, under uncertainty. His research has appeared in leading journals such as Management Science, Operations Research, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, and Annals of Applied Probability. He has received the Career Award from National Science Foundation (NSF) USA in 2010.

Contact us

Get in touch with the Operations & Technology Management subject group via their Administrator, Emily Brown:

e.brown@jbs.cam.ac.uk

Seminars are added as they are arranged.

View a list of all Cambridge Judge research seminars