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The Operations & Technology Management subject group

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About the subject group

Organisations achieve reliable performance and competitive advantage through the design and management of intra- and inter-organisational projects, processes and routines. The Operations & Technology Management group studies the determinants of superior performance from the perspective of these activities. Focused on practice-based research through deep engagement with partner organisations, group members address a wide spectrum of management challenges and employ a diverse set of research methods, including theoretical, analytical, empirical, and behavioural models that draw from operations research, economics, psychology and sociology, as well as state-of-the-art data analytics techniques applied to large datasets.

The research of the group falls broadly into the following categories:

  • Innovation and new product development (Stelios Kavadias, Christoph Loch, Nektarios Oraiopoulos)
  • Healthcare operations (Feryal Erhun, Houyuan Jiang, Stefan Scholtes)
  • Operations strategy (Jane Davies, Stelios Kavadias, Christoph Loch, Nektarios Oraiopoulos)
  • Supply chain management and risk (Feryal Erhun, Benn Lawson, Daniel Ralph)
  • Behavioural decision-making and behaviour analytics (Christoph Loch, Kishore Sengupta, David Stillwell)

Group members have leading roles in the following research centres:


  • Davies, Jane
    Faculty (Professor level) in Management Practice, Director of Executive Education, Deputy Director of the Centre for Process Excellence & Innovation (CPEI)
  • Erhun, Feryal
    Professor of Operations & Technology Management, Head of the Operations & Technology Management Subject Group
  • Hutchison-Krupat, Jeremy
    Associate Professor in Innovation & Operations Management
  • Jiang, Houyuan
    Professor of Management Science
  • Kavadias, Stylianos (Stelios)
    Margaret Thatcher Professor of Enterprise Studies in Innovation & Growth, Vice-Dean for Faculty, Co-Director of the Entrepreneurship Centre
  • Lawson, Benn
    Associate Professor in Operations Management, Director of the Management Studies Tripos, Director of the Centre for Process Excellence & Innovation (CPEI)
  • Loch, Christoph H
    Professor of Management Studies
  • Oraiopoulos, Nektarios
    Associate Professor in Operations Management, Director of the MPhil in Strategy, Marketing & Operations Programme
  • Ralph, Daniel
    Professor of Operations Research, Academic Director of the Centre for Risk Studies
  • Scholtes, Stefan
    Dennis Gillings Professor of Health Management, Academic Director of the Centre for Health Leadership & Enterprise (CCHLE)
  • Sengupta, Kishore
    Professor of Operations Management
  • Taneri, Niyazi
    Associate Professor in Operations & Technology Management

Research & teaching staff

PhD students

Honorary appointments

Publishing output

Group members actively contribute to both academic and business communities. They have published in top-tier academic journals such as Management ScienceOperations ResearchManufacturing and Service Operations ManagementJournal of Operations ManagementProduction and Operations ManagementMathematics of Operations ResearchProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, as well as top-tier management journals such as Harvard Business Review and MIT Sloan Management Review. They currently serve or have served as associate editors at journals such as Management ScienceOperations ResearchManufacturing and Service Operations ManagementJournal of Operations Management, and Production and Operations Management.


Agrawal, V. and Oraiopoulos, N. (2020) “The role of decision rights in codevelopment initiatives.” Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 22(4): 645-867 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.2019.0775)

Ahmad, M.G. and Loch, C. (2020) “What do the followers want? The core functions of leadership.” Leadership Quarterly, 31(2): 101293 (DOI: 10.1016/j.leaqua.2019.04.003)

Cousins, P., Dutordoir, M., Lawson, B. and Quariguasi Frota Neto, J. (2020) “Shareholder wealth effects of modern slavery regulation.” Management Science, 66(11): 4921-5484 (DOI: 10.17863/CAM.43261)

Drakeman, D.L. and Oraiopoulos, N. (2020) “The risk of de-risking innovation: optimal R&D strategies in ambiguous environments.” California Management Review, 62(3): 42-63 (DOI: 10.1177/0008125620915289)

Jiang, H., Pang, Z. and Savin, S. (2020) “Performance incentives and competition in healthcare markets.” Production and Operations Management, 29(5): 1145-1164 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.13163)

KC, D.S., Scholtes, S. and Terwiesch, C. (2020) “Empirical research in healthcare operations: past research, present understanding, and future opportunities.” Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 22(1): 73-83 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.2019.0826)

Lange, R.-J., Ralph, D. and Støre, K. (2020) “Real-option valuation in multiple dimensions using Poisson optional stopping times.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 55(2): 653-677 (DOI: 10.1017/S0022109019000048)

Oraiopoulos, N. and Kavadias, S. (2020) “Is diversity (un)biased? Project selection decisions in executive committees.” Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 22(5): 869-1106 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.2019.0782)

Tuveson, M., Ralph, D. and Alexander, K. (eds.) (2020) Beyond bad apples: risk culture in business. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Tuveson, M. and Ralph, D. (2020) “A network view of tone at the top and the role of opinion leaders.” In: Tuveson, M., Ralph, D. and Alexander, K. (eds.) Beyond bad apples: risk culture in business. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp.73-102 (DOI: 10.1017/9781316996959.004)


Chae, S., Lawson, B., Kull, T.J. and Choi, T.Y. (2019) “To insource or outsource the sourcing? A behavioral investigation of the multi-tier sourcing decision.” International Journal of Operations and Production Management, 9(3): 385-405 (DOI: 10.1108/IJOPM-04-2018-0231)

Cousins, P., Lawson, B., Petersen, K. and Fugate, B. (2019) “Investigating green supply chain management practices and performance: the moderating roles of supply chain ecocentricity and traceability.” International Journal of Operations and Production Management, 39(5): 767-786 (DOI: 10.1108/IJOPM-11-2018-0676)

Han, L., Fine, J., Robinson, S.M., Boyle, A.A., Freeman, M. and Scholtes, S. (2019) “Is seniority of emergency physician associated with the weekend mortality effect? An exploratory analysis of electronic health records in the UK.” Emergency Medicine Journal, 36(12): 708-715 (DOI: 10.1136/emermed-2018-208114)

Holmström, J., Holweg, M., Lawson, B., Pil, F.K. and Wagner, S.M. (2019) “The digitalization of operations and supply chain management: theoretical and methodological implications.” Journal of Operations Management, 65(8): 728-734 (DOI: 10.1002/joom.1073)

Holweg, M., Lawson, B. and Pil, F.K. (2019) “How digital fulfillment is changing manufacturing.” Harvard Business Review, 15 March 2019

Jiang, H. and Sodhi, M.S. (2019) “Analyzing the proposed reconfiguration of accident-and-emergency facilities in England.” Production and Operations Management, 28(7): 1837-1857 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.13020)

Kattuman, P., Loch, C. and Kurchian, C. (2019) “Management succession and success in a professional soccer team.” PLoS ONE, 14(3): e0212634 (DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0212634)

Kuntz, L., Scholtes, S. and Sulz, S. (2019) “Separate and concentrate: accounting for patient complexity in general hospitals.” Management Science, 65(6): 2482-2501 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2018.3064)

Loch, C. and Sommer, S. (2019) “The tension between flexible goals and managerial control in exploratory projects.” Project Management Journal, 50(5): 524-537 (DOI: 10.1177/8756972819870062)

Lawson, B., Potter, A., Pil, F. and Holweg, M. (2019) “Supply chain disruptions: the influence of industry and geography on firm reaction speed.” International Journal of Operations and Production Management, 39(9/10): 1076-1098 (DOI: 10.1108/IJOPM-04-2018-0225)

Neuberger, A., Oraiopoulos, N. and Drakeman, D.L. (2019) “Renovation as innovation: is repurposing the future of drug discovery research?” Drug Discovery Today, 24(1): 1-3 (DOI: 10.1016/j.drudis.2018.06.012)

Oughton, E., Ralph, D., Pant, R., Leverett, E., Copic, J., Thacker, S., Dada, R., Ruffle, S., Tuveson, M. and Hall, J.W. (2019) “Stochastic counterfactual risk analysis for the vulnerability assessment of cyber-physical attacks on electricity distribution infrastructure networks.” Risk Analysis, 39(9): 2012-2031 (DOI: 10.1111/risa.13291)

Zhao, Y.-B., Jiang, H. and Luo, Z.-Q. (2019) “Weak stability of ℓ1-minimization methods in sparse data reconstruction.” Mathematics of Operations Research, 44(1): 173-195 (DOI: 10.1287/moor.2017.0919)


Feduzi, A., Runde, J., Cabantous, L., Faulkner, P. and Loch, C. (2018) “Updating ‘small world representations’ in strategic decision-making under extreme uncertainty.” Academy of Management Proceedings, 2018(1) (DOI: 10.5465/AMBPP.2018.141)

Holweg, M., Davies, J., De Meyer, A., Lawson, B. and Schmenner, R. (2018) Process theory: the principles of operations management. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Hutchison-Krupat, J. (2018) “Communication, incentives, and the execution of a strategic initiative.” Management Science, 64(7): 3380-3399 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2017.2758)

Hutchison-Krupat, J. and Kavadias, S. (2018) “Organizational enablers for NPD portfolio selection.” IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 65(1): 59-71 (DOI: 10.1109/TEM.2017.2739647)

Lawson, B., Pil, F. and Holweg, M. (2018) “Multi-modal order fulfilment: concept and application.” Production and Operations Management, 27(2): 269-284 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12801)

Loch, C., Mähring, M. and Sommer, S. (2018) “Supervising projects you don’t (fully) understand lessons for effective project governance by steering committees.” California Management Review, 59(2): 45-67 (DOI: 10.1177/0008125617697944)

Parpas, P., Ralph, D. and Wiesemann, W. (eds.) (2018) “Special issue on optimization models and algorithms for data science.” Mathematical Programming, 167(1) (DOI: 10.1007/s10107-017-1217-5)

van Oorschot, K.E., Sengupta, K. and Van Wassenhove, L.N. (2018) “Under pressure: the effects of iteration lengths on agile software development performance.” Project Management Journal, 49(6): 78-102 (DOI: 10.1177/8756972818802714)


Freeman, M., Savva, N. and Scholtes, S. (2017) “Gatekeepers at work: an empirical analysis of a maternity unit.” Management Science, 63(10): 3147-3167 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2016.2512)

Loch, C.H. (2017) “Creativity and risk taking aren’t rational: behavioral operations in MOT.” Production and Operations Management, 26(4): 591–604 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12666)

Loch, C.H. (2017) “Has megaproject management lost its way? Lessons from history.” In Flyvbjerg, B. (ed.) The Oxford handbook of megaproject management. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.21-38

Kornish, L.J. and Hutchison-Krupat, J. (2017) “Research on idea generation and selection: implications for management of technology.” Production and Operations Management, 26(4): 633-651 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12664)

Krause, D., Luzzini, D. and Lawson, B. (2017) “Building the case for a single key informant in supply chain management survey research.” Journal of Supply Chain Management, 54(1): 42-50 (DOI:

Neuberger, A., Oraiopoulos, N. and Drakeman, D.L. (2017) “Lemons, or squeezed for resources? Information symmetry and asymmetric resources in biotechnology.” Frontiers in Pharmacology, 8: 338 (DOI: 10.3389/fphar.2017.00338)

Newnham, M., Bunclark, K., Abraham, N., Almeida, L.A., Cannon, J., Clare, S., Doughty, N., Dunning, J., Ng, C., Ponnaberanam, A., Scholtes, S., Sheares, K., Speed, N., Taboada, D., Toshner, M., Tsui ,S., Jenkins, D. and Pepke-Zaba, J. (2017) “Camphor score: sustained improvement in patient reported outcomes following pulmonary endarterectomy in chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension.” Thorax, 72: 0-0 (DOI: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2017-210983.56)

Oraiopoulos, N. and Dunlop, W.C.N. (2017) “When science is not enough: a framework towards more customer-focused drug development.” Advances in Therapy, 34(7): 1572–1583 (DOI: 10.1007/s12325-017-0567-y)

Smith, W.B., Steinberg, J., Scholtes, S. and Mcnamara, I.R. (2017) “Medial compartment knee osteoarthritis: age-stratified cost-effectiveness of total knee arthroplasty, unicompartmental knee arthroplasty, and high tibial osteotomy.” The Knee Surgery, Sports Traumatology, Arthroscopy, 25(3): 924-933 (DOI: 10.1007/s00167-015-3821-3)


Agrawal, V.V., Kavadias, S. and Toktay, L.B. (2016) “The limits of planned obsolescence for conspicuous durable goods.” Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 18(2): 216-226 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.2015.0554)

Erhun, F., Malcolm, E., Kalani, M., Brayton, K., Nguyen, C., Asch, S.M., Platchek, T. and Milstein, A. (2016) “Opportunities to improve the value of outpatient surgical care.” American Journal of Managed Care, 22(9): e329-e335

Freeman, M., Savva N, Scholtes, S. (2016) “Gatekeepers at work: an empirical analysis of a maternity unit.” Management Science (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2016.2512)

Giallombardo, G., Jiang, H. and Miglionico, G. (2016) “New formulations for the conflict resolution problem in the scheduling of television commercials.” Operations Research, 64(4): 838-848 (DOI: 10.1287/opre.2016.1496)

Joglekar, N.R., Davies, J. and Anderson, E.J. (2016) “The role of industry studies and public policies in production and operations management.” Production and Operations Management, 25(12): 1977-2001 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12640)

Kavadias, S., Ladas, K. and Loch, C. (2016) “The transformative business model.” Harvard Business Review, 90-98

Loch, C.H. (2016) “It’s not just others: conquering the hubris in yourself.” In: Robinson, G. and Garrard, P. (eds.) The intoxication of power. Basingstoke: Palgrave, pp.101-116 (DOI: 10.1057/9781137439666_6)

Loch, C.H. (2016) “Creativity and risk taking aren’t rational: behavioral operations in the management of technology.” Production and Operations Management (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12666)

Loch, C.H., Mahring, M. and Sommer, S. (2016) “Supervising projects you don’t (fully) understand: lessons for effective project governance by steering committees.” California Management Review (DOI: 10.17863/CAM.856)

Martani, C., Jin, Y., Soga, K. and Scholtes, S. (2016) “Design with uncertainty: the role of future options for infrastructure integration.” Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 31(10): 733-748 (DOI: 10.1111/mice.12214)

Sting, F.J. and Loch, C.H. (2016) “Implementing operations strategy: how vertical and horizontal coordination interact.” Production and Operations Management, 25(7):1177-1193 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12537)


Bilginer, Ö. and Erhun, F. (2015) “Production and sales planning in capacitated new product introductions.” Production and Operations Management, 24(1): 42-53 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12225)

Crouzeix, J-P, Eberhard, A. and Ralph, D. (2015) “(Convex) level sets integration.” Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 171(3): 865-886 (DOI: 10.1007/s10957-015-0795-8)

Erhun, F., Mistry, B., Platchek, T., Milstein, A., Narayanan, V.G. and Kaplan, R.S. (2015) “Time-driven activity-based costing of multivessel coronary artery bypass grafting across national boundaries to identify improvement opportunities: study protocol.” BMJ Open, 5(8): e008765 (DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-008765)

Handfield, R.B., Cousins, P.D., Lawson, B. and Petersen, K.J. (2015) “How can supply management really improve performance? A knowledge-based model of alignment capabilities.” Journal of Supply Chain Management, 51(3): 3-17 (DOI: 10.1111/jscm.12066)

Hutchison-Krupat, J. and Kavadias, S. (2015) “Strategic resource allocation: top-down, bottom-up, and the value of strategic buckets.” Management Science, 61(2): 391-412 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2013.1861)

Karaer, O. and Erhun, F. (2015) “Quality and entry deterrence.” European Journal of Operational Research, 240(1): 292-303 (DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2014.07.016)

Kelly, S., Chaplin, A., Coburn, A.W., Copic, J., Evan, T., Neduv, E., Ralph, D., Ruffle, S.J., Schwendner, P., Skelton, A., et al. (2015) Stress test scenario: Eurozone meltdown. Cambridge: Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge.

Kelly, S., Yeo, J.Z., Coburn, A., Copic, J., Crawford-Brown, D., Foley, A., Neduv, E., Ralph, D. and Saidi, F. (2015) Unhedgeable risk: how climate change sentiment impacts investment. Cambridge: Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge.

Kuntz, L., Mennicken, R. and Scholtes, S. (2015) “Stress on the ward: evidence of safety tipping points in hospitals.” Management Science, 61(4): 754-771 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2014.1917)

Lawson, B., Tyler, B.B. and Potter, A. (2015) “Strategic suppliers’ technical contributions to new product advantage: substitution and configuration options.” Journal of Product Innovation Management, 32(5): 760-776 (DOI: 10.1111/jpim.12235)

Lawson, B., Krause, D. and Potter, A. (2015) “Improving supplier new product development performance: the role of supplier development.” Journal of Product Innovation Management, 32(5): 777-792 (DOI: 10.1111/jpim.12231)

Özkan-Seely, G.F., Gaimon, C. and Kavadias, S. (2015) “Dynamic knowledge transfer and knowledge development for product and process design teams.” Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 17(2): 177-190 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.2014.0507)

Ralph, D. and Smeers, Y. (2015) “Risk trading and endogenous probabilities in investment equilibria.” SIAM Journal on Optimization, 25(4): 2589-2611 (DOI: 10.1137/110851778)

Schlapp, J., Oraiopoulos, N. and Mak, V. (2015) “Resource allocation decisions under imperfect evaluation and organizational dynamics.” Management Science, 61(9): 2139-2159 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2014.2083)

Singh, N., Kavadias, S. and Subramanian, R. (2015) “Product quality and the value of asymmetric information under supplier-specified contracts.” Indian School of Business Working Papers Series

Sommer, S.C., Bendoly, E. and Kavadias, S. (2015) “Search strategies in complex and ambiguous problem spaces: performance comparisons across group structures through a controlled experiment.” Social Science Research Network (SSRN)

Sting, F.J., Loch, C.H. and Stempfhuber, D. (2015) “Accelerating projects by encouraging help.” MIT Sloan Management Review, 56(3): 1-9


Agrawal, V. and Oraiopoulos, N. (2014) “The role of decision rights in collaborative development initiatives.” Social Science Research Network (SSRN) (DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2436507)

Bellos, I. and Kavadias, S. (2014) “A framework for service design.” Social Science Research Network (SSRN)

Donaghey, J., Reinecke, J., Niforou, C. and Lawson, B. (2014) “From employment relations to consumption relations: balancing labor governance in global supply chains.” Human Resource Management, 53(2): 229-252 (DOI: 10.1002/hrm.21552)

Erzurumlu, S.S., Davies, J. and Joglekar, N. (2014) “Managing highly innovative projects: the influence of design characteristics on project valuation.” IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 61(2): 349-361 (DOI: 10.1109/TEM.2014.2304957)

Hult, E., Jiang, H. and Ralph, D. (2014) “Exact computational approaches to a stochastic uncapacitated single allocation p-hub center problem.” Computational Optimization and Applications, 59: 185-200 (DOI: 10.1007/s10589-013-9629-5)

Hult, E., Jiang, H. and Ralph, D. (2014) “Exact computational approaches to a stochastic uncapacitated single allocation p-hub center problem.” Computational Optimization and Applications, 59(1): 185-200 (DOI: 10.1007/s10589-013-9629-5)

Jansen, M., Oraiopoulos, N. and Ralph, D. (2014) “Contracting for continuity of mission critical services.” In: INFORMS Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA.

Jiang, H. and Miglionico, G. (2014) “Airline network revenue management with buy-up.” Optimization, 63(6): 849-865 (DOI: 10.1080/02331934.2014.896079)

Kalkanci, B., Chen, K.Y. and Erhun, F. (2014) “Complexity as a contract design factor: a human-to-human experimental study.” Production and Operations Management, 23(2): 269-284 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12067)

Kavadias, S. (2014) “Portfolio decision analysis: improved methods for resource allocation.” Imterfaces, 44(1): 113-114 (DOI: 10.1287/inte.2013.0722)

Kavadias, S. (2014) “10-year anniversary of the new product development, R&D, and project management department in production and operations management – progress, thoughts, and perspectives.” Production and Operations Management, 23 (8): 1259-1264 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12256)

Kim, Y.H., Sting, F.J. and Loch, C.H. (2014) “Top-down, bottom-up, or both? Toward an integrative perspective on operations strategy formation.” Journal of Operations Management, 32(7-8): 462-474 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jom.2014.09.005)

Lee, Y.S. and Scholtes, S. (2014) “Empirical prediction intervals revisited.” International Journal of Forecasting, 30(2): 217-234 (DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.018)

Oraiopoulos, N. and Kavadias, S. (2014) “The path-dependent nature of R&D search: implications for (and from) competition.” Production and Operations Management, 23(8): 1450-1461 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12198)

Roden, S. and Lawson, B. (2014) “Developing social capital in buyer-supplier relationships: the contingent effect of relationship-specific adaptations.” International Journal of Production Economics, 151: 89-99 (DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2014.01.008)

Savva, N. and Scholtes, S. (2014) “Opt-out options in new product co-development partnerships.” Production and Operations Management, 23(8): 1370-1386 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12059)

Usta, M., Erhun, F. and Hausman, W.H. (2014) “Supply licensing when the manufacturer strategically commits to invest in R&D.” Naval Research Logistics, 61(4): 341-350 (DOI: 10.1002/nav.21586)


Chao, R.O. and Kavadias, S. (2013) “R&D intensity and the new product development portfolio.” IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 60(4): 664-675 (DOI: 10.1109/TEM.2013.2257792)

Chung Y.T. and Erhun, F. (2013) “Designing supply contracts for perishable goods with two periods of shelf life.” IIE Transactions (Institute of Industrial Engineers), 45(1): 53-67 (DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2012.654847)

Davies, J. and Joglekar, N. (2013) “Supply chain integration, product modularity, and market valuation: evidence from the solar energy industry.” Production and Operations Management, 22(6): 1494-1508 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12052)

Erat, S., Kavadias, S. and Gaimon, C. (2013) “The pitfalls of subsystem integration: when less is more.” Management Science, 59(3): 659-676 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1120.1592)

Holmberg, P., Newbery, D., and Ralph, D. (2013) “Supply function equilibria: step functions and continuous representations.” Journal of Economic Theory, 148(4): 1509-1551 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2013.04.020)

Hutchison-Krupat, J. and Kavadias, S. (2013) “Incentive design for cross-functional teams.” Social Science Research Network (SSRN) (DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1604727)

Kayis, E., Erhun, F. and Plambeck, E.L. (2013) “Delegation vs. control of component procurement under asymmetric cost information and simple contracts.” Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 15(1): 45-56 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.1120.0395)

Kempf, K.G., Erhun, F., Hertzler, E.F., Rosenberg, T.R. and Peng, C. (2013) “Optimizing capital investment decisions at Intel Corporation.” Interfaces, 43(1): 62-78 (DOI: 10.1287/inte.1120.0659)

Kraft, T., Erhun, F., Carlson, R.C. and Rafinejad, D. (2013) “Replacement decisions for potentially hazardous substances.” Production and Operations Management, 22(4): 958-975 (DOI: 10.1111/poms.12021)

Kraft, T., Zheng, Y. and Erhun, F. (2013) “The NGO’s dilemma: how to influence firms to replace a potentially hazardous substance.” Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 15(4): 649-669 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.2013.0440)

Kuntz, L. and Scholtes, S. (2013) “Physicians in leadership: the association between medical director involvement and staff-to-patient ratios.” Health Care Management Science, 16(2): 129-138 (DOI: 10.1007/s10729-012-9218-7)

Loch, C.H.Sengupta, K. and Ahmad, M.G. (2013) “The microevolution of routines: how problem solving and social preferences interact.” Organization Science, 24(1): 99-115 (DOI: 10.1287/orsc.1110.0719)

Chung, Y.T., Erhun, F. and Kraft, T. (2013) “Improving Stanford Blood Center’s platelet supply chain.” In: Munson, C. (ed.) The supply chain management casebook. New Jersey: FT Press, Chapter 2 (Case 3), pp. 39-49

Potter, A. and Lawson, B. (2013) “Help or hindrance? Causal ambiguity and supplier involvement in new product development teams.” Journal of Product Innovation Management, 30(4): 794-808 (DOI: 10.1111/jpim.12027)

Urda, J. and Loch, C.H. (2013) “Social preferences and emotions as regulators of behavior in processes.” Journal of Operations Management, 31(1-3): 6-23 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jom.2012.11.007)

Wogrin, S., Hobbs, B.F., Ralph, D., Centeno, E. and Barquin, J. (2013) “Open versus closed loop capacity equilibria in electricity markets under perfect and oligopolistic competition.” Mathematical Programming, 140(2): 295-322 (DOI: 10.1007/s10107-013-0696-2)


Cui, Z., Loch, C., Grossmann, B. and He, R. (2012) “How provider selection and management contribute to successful innovation outsourcing: an empirical study at Siemens.” Production and Operations Management, 21(1): 29-48 (DOI: 10.1111/j.1937-5956.2011.01237.x)

Eralp, M.N., Scholtes, S., Martell, G., Winter, R. and Exley, A.R. (2012) “Screening of healthcare workers for tuberculosis: development and validation of a new health economic model to inform practice.” BMJ Open, 2: e000630 (DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2011-000630)

Jiang, H., Pang, Z. and Savin, S. (2012) “Performance-based contracts for outpatient medical services.” Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 14(4): 654-669 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.1120.0402)

Kalkanci, B. and Erhun, F. (2012) “Pricing games and impact of private demand information in decentralized assembly systems.” Operations Research, 60(5): 1142-1156 (DOI: 10.1287/opre.1120.1084)

Kraft, T., Chung, Y.T. and Erhun, F. (2012) “Case article: KEY Electronics – sourcing and warehouse analysis.” INFORMS Transactions on Education, 12(2): 89-91 (DOI: 10.1287/ited.1110.0065ca)

Lawson, B. and Potter, A. (2012) “Determinants of knowledge transfer in inter-firm new product development projects.” International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 32(10): 1228-1247 (DOI: 10.1108/01443571211274530)

Lawson, B., Samson, D. and Roden, S. (2012) “Appropriating the value from innovation: inimitability and the effectiveness of isolating mechanisms.” R&D Management, 42(5): 420-434 (DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9310.2012.00692.x)

Lévesque, M., Joglekar, N. and Davies, J. (2012) “A comparison of revenue growth at recent-IPO and established firms: the influence of SG&A, R&D and COGS.” Journal of Business Venturing, 27(1): 47-61 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2010.08.001)

Loch, C.H., Sting, F.J., Huchzermeier, A. and Decker, C. (2012) “Finding the profit in fairness.” Harvard Business Review, 90(9)

Oraiopoulos, N. and Kavadias, S. (2012) “Senior management committees: do more diverse perspectives lead to fewer project selection errors?” Social Science Research Network (SSRN) (DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2136927)

Oraiopoulos, N., Ferguson, M.E. and Toktay, L.B. (2012) “Relicensing as a secondary market strategy.” Management Science, 58(5): 1022-1037 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1110.1456)

Peng, C., Erhun, F., Hertzler, E.F. and Kempf, K.G. (2012) “Capacity planning in the semiconductor industry: dual-mode procurement with options.” Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 14(2): 170-185 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.1110.0361)

Potter, A., Murray, J., Lawson, B. and Graham, S. (2012) “Trends in product recalls within the agri-food industry: empirical evidence from the USA, UK and the Republic of Ireland.” Trends in Food Science & Technology, 28(2): 77-86 (DOI: 10.1016/j.tifs.2012.06.017)

Scholtes, S. (2012) Introduction to piecewise differentiable equations. New York: Springer (DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4614-4340-7)

Wagner, S.M., Grosse-Ruyken, P.T. and Erhun, F. (2012) “The link between supply chain fit and financial performance of the firm.” Journal of Operations Management, 30(4): 340-353 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jom.2012.01.001)

Welbourne, J., Gupta, A., Scholtes, S., Dean, J. and Ahluwalia, J. (2012) “Training: where tomorrow’s leaders hit new heights.” Health Service Journal, 122(6327):19-21


Bellos, I. and Kavadias, S. (2011) “The design challenges of experiential services.” Social Science Research Network (SSRN) (DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1912166)

Bhattacharya, S. and Kavadias, S. (2011) “Optimal sequential investments in new product development with emerging technologies and learning.” INSEAD Working Paper Series (DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1959968)

Carey, S. and Lawson, B. (2011) “Governance and social capital formation in buyer‐supplier relationships.” Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, 22(2): 152-170 (DOI: 10.1108/17410381111102199)

Carey, S., Lawson, B. and Krause, D.R. (2011) “Social capital configuration, legal bonds and performance in buyer-supplier relationships.” Journal of Operations Management, 29(4): 277-288 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jom.2010.08.003)

Cousins, P.D., Lawson, B., Petersen, K.J. and Handfield, R.B. (2011) “Breakthrough scanning, supplier knowledge exchange, and new product development performance.” Journal of Product Innovation Management, 28(6): 930-942 (DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5885.2011.00854.x)

de Neufville, R. and Scholtes, S. (2011) Flexibility in engineering design (engineering systems). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press (ISBN: 9780262016230)

Erhun, F. (2011) “Contract complexity and performance.” In: Geunes J. (ed.) Tutorials in operations research: transforming research into action. Hanover: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS): 126-147 (DOI: 10.1287/educ.1110.0089)

Erhun, F. and Bílgíner, O. (2011) “Managing product introductions and transitions.” In: Wiley encyclopedia of operations research and management science. (DOI: 10.1002/9780470400531.eorms0489)

Erhun, F. and Deleris, L.A. (2011) “Quantitative risk assessment in supply chains: a case study based on engineering risk analysis concepts.” In: Kempf, K.G., Keskinocak, P. and Uzsoy, R. (eds.) Planning production and inventories in the extended enterprise: a state-of-the-art handbook. New York: Springer, International Series in Operations Research & Management Science (152): 105-131 (DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4419-8191-2_5)

Erhun, F., Keskinocak, P. and Tayur, S. (2011) “Dynamic procurement, quantity discounts, and supply chain efficiency.” In: Choi T.M. and Cheng T.C.E. (eds.) Supply chain coordination under uncertainty. Springer Science & Business Media, 1: 219-233 (DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-19257-9_9)

Erhun, F. (2011) “Collaborative procurement.” In: Cochran J.J., Cox, L.A., Keskinocak, P., Kharoufeh, J.P. and Cole Smith, J. (eds.) Wiley encyclopedia of operations research and management science (DOI: 10.1002/9780470400531.eorms0156)

Jiang, H. and Pang, Z. (2011) “Network capacity management under competition.” Computational Optimization and Applications, 50(2): 287-326 (DOI: 10.1007/s10589-010-9340-8)

Jiang, H., Netessine, S. and Savin, S. (2011) “Robust newsvendor competition under asymmetric information.” Operations Research, 59(1): 254-261 (DOI: 10.1287/opre.1100.0858)

Kalkanci, B., Chen, K.Y. and Erhun, F. (2011) “Contract complexity and performance under asymmetric demand information: an experimental evaluation.” Management Science, 57(4): 689-704 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1110.1318)

Loch, C. and Kavadias, S. (2011) “Implementing strategy through projects.” In: Morris, P.W.G., Pinto, J. and Söderlund, J. (eds.) The Oxford handbook of project management. Oxford: Oxford University Press (DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199563142.003.0010)

Loch, C.H. and Payne, F. (2011) “Strategic management: developing policies and strategies.” In: Cooke-Davies, T. (ed.) Aspects of complexity: managing projects in a complex world. Atlanta, GA: Project Management Institute.

Privett, N. and Erhun, F. (2011) “Efficient funding: auditing in the nonprofit sector.” Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 13(4): 471-488 (DOI: 10.1287/msom.1110.0345)

Ralph, D. and Stein, O. (2011) “The C-Index: a new stability concept for quadratic programs with complementarity constraints.” Mathematics of Operations Research, 36(3): 504-526 (DOI: 10.1287/moor.1110.0501)

Ralph, D. and Xu, H.F. (2011) “Convergence of stationary points of sample average two-stage stochastic programs: a generalized equation approach.” Mathematics of Operations Research, 36(3): 568-592 (DOI: 10.1287/moor.1110.0506)

Wu, Y., Loch, C. and Ahmad, G. (2011) “Status and relationships in social dilemmas of teams.” Journal of Operations Management, 29(7-8): 650-662 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jom.2011.03.004)

Industry engagement

Members of the Operations and Technology Management Group engage frequently with organisations in the business and public sectors and their research agenda is stimulated by regular contacts with senior personnel of regional, national and international organisations such as Bank of China, British Airways, BP, Ernst & Young, Ofgem, Defra, Shell, UK Department for Transport, NICE and Cambridge University Hospitals.

Recent and current engagement projects undertaken by members of the group include:

  • Professor Stefan Scholtes, Professor Feryal Erhun, Dr Houyuan Jiang, together with colleague Dr Paul Kattuman and PhD students Lidia Betcheva, Tom Pape and Antoine Feylesouffi, started a research collaboration with Addenbrookes Hospital and the East of England Region to support the local NHS response to the COVID-19 emergency. Their work has served a population of seven million people in the East of England, supporting key timely decisions in terms of hospital and ICU beds, lockdown easing measures and hospital activities.
  • Professor Stelios Kavadias completed his sabbatical at AstraZeneca in 2019, where he helped the R&D portfolio & project management executives in exploring ways by which AstraZeneca could increase their R&D productivity. His effort led to the creation of a standardised template with sets of questions that help project teams to check that they are not being overly risk adverse and that they are considering the implications of their decisions and phase plans on drugs’ approval time.
  • Professor Danny Ralph has been supporting several businesses through the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies (CCRS) that he directs. The Centre has established itself at the forefront of research into cyber risk insurance products and cyber risk management internationally. Their work has been used widely by a number of organisations including Risk Management Solutions (RMS), Pool Re, and Lloyd’s of London.
  • Dr Benn Lawson worked with a global automotive producer to understand the profitability implications of building vehicles to customer order versus building to stock. He is also working with a sustainability-focused NGO to assess the effects of worker empowerment interventions in supplier factories.
  • Dr Aris Oraiopoulos has consulted with companies in the pharmaceutical industry on strategies for drug development.
  • Dr Kishore Sengupta has served as advisor on several projects with the US Government Department of Defense and NASA, and has consulted with organisations in Silicon Valley and Hong Kong. He has also worked at the AT&T Network Software Center (now Lucent Technologies) and Ernst & Young.

Previous seminars

Lent Term 2020

GAMA: Quantum and Quantum-inspired Algorithms
Professor Sridhar Tayur, Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University 

12:30-14:00, 9 January 2020
Lecture Theatre 4, Cambridge Judge Business School

Sridar will discuss two original approaches to solve nonlinear integer optimisation problems that arise in applications in finance, cancer genomics and supply chain optimisation. The Graver Augmented Multiseed Algorithm (GAMA) utilises augmentation along Graver basis elements (the improvement direction is obtained by comparing objective function values) from these multiple initial feasible solutions.

  • A hybrid quantum classical approach (GAMMA-Q) that have the potential to solve a variety of hard linear and nonlinear integer programmes, as the form a test set (optimality cerficate). We test two hybrid quantum classical algorithms (on D-Wave) one for computing Graver basis and a second for optimising nonlinear integer programs that utilise Graver bases to understand the strengths and limitations of the practical quantum annealers available today. Our experiments suggest that with a modest increase in coupler precision along with near term improvements in the number of qubits and connectivity that are expected the ability to outperform classical best in class algorithms is within reach.
  • A (fully classical) approach (GAMA-C) to solving certain non-convex integer programmes. This method is well suited for Cardinality Boolean Quadratic Problems (CBQP), Quadratic Semi Assignment Problems (QSAP) and Quadratic Assignment Problems (QAP). Sensitivity analysis indicates that the rate at which GAMA slows down as the problem size increases is much lower than that of Gurobi. We find that for several instances of practical relevance, GAMA vastly outperforms in terms of time to find the optimal solution (by two or three orders of magnitude).
  • Results of applying GAMA on data from The Cancer Genome Project (TCGA) to find mutated driver pathways are encouraging. I will discuss some results on Acute Myleoid Luekemia (AML) and Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM).

Sridhar Tayur is the Ford Distinguished Research Chair and University Professor of Operations Management at Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business. He received his PhD in Operations Research and Industrial Engineering from Cornell University and his undergraduate degree in Mechanical Engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) at Madras (where he is a Distinguished Alumnus Award winner). He is an INFORMS Fellow, a Distinguished Fellow of MSOM Society and has been elected to the National Academy of Engineering (NAE).

He has been a visiting professor at Cornell, MIT and Stanford. He has published in Operations Research, Management Science, Mathematics of Operations Research, Mathematical Programming, Stochastic Models, Queuing Systems, Transportation Science, POMS, IIE Transactions, NRLQ, Journal of Algorithms and MSOM Journal. He has served on the editorial boards of Operations Research, MSOM Journal, Management Science, IIE Transactions and POMS. He served as President of MSOM Society.

He has co-edited “Quantitative models for supply chain management” (1998) and “Handbook of healthcare analytics” (2018).

He has been a finalist for the Lanchester Prize and is an Edelman Laureate. He has won the Healthcare Best paper Award by POMS and the INFORMS Pierskalla Award for best paper in Healthcare. He has won the Gerald L Thompson Teaching Award in the BS Business Administration Program, the George Leland Bach Excellence in Teaching Award given by MBA students, the INFORMS Teaching Case award, and has been named as a “Top Professor” by Business Week.

Hospitalisation Vs Home Care: Treating Haematology Patients Under Scarce Capacity
Dr Galit Yom-Tov, Industrial Engineering and Management Technion-Israel Institute of Technology (IE&M) 

12:30-14:00, 11 February 2020
Room 217 (Keynes House), Cambridge Judge Business School

Previous research has shown that placing patients in non-dedicated medical units increases patient length of stay (LOS) and mortality. However, in many cases, the “optimal” LOS and the best location for treatment of the patient is not obvious. A case in point are haematology patients, for whom this is a critical decision. These patients are hospitalised on a regular basis for chemotherapy treatments and it is debated whether these treatments should be offered during hospitalisation followed by an observation period, or whether these patients are better treated in outpatient clinics and should stay at home unless infection is suspected.

Patients with haematological malignancies are susceptible to life-threatening infections after chemotherapy. Hence, LOS optimisation of haematology patients must balance the risk of patient infection with mortality. The former is minimised by minimising hospital stay, while the latter is reduced through hospital care, where infections are identified and treated earlier.

We analyse longitudinal patient data of a large tertiary hospital and evaluate whether management of such patients in dedicated inpatient and emergency wards could provide superior infection prevention and better outcomes. Electronic medical records were analysed to retrieve infection related information and on this basis, patient-tailored risk prediction models were developed. These models help us to empirically compare different patient management policies.

We then developed a Markov Decision Process formulation to explore the connection between these non-monotonic risk functions and the optimal LOS from a single patient perspective. We further consider the social problem in which capacity constraints limit the ability of hospitals to keep patients for their optimal LOS. We find that the optimal policy under this constraint takes the form of a two threshold policy. This policy either blocks some of the patients and immediately routes them to home care observation (under the outpatient clinic guidance), or speeds up some of the patients and routes them to home care after an observation period in the hospital.

Our optimisation model assumes general hazard rate functions, and therefore, can capture the changing dynamics inpatient health through time. It can help guide physician decisions in real-time, as patient state evolves.

Galit Yom-Tov is an Assistant Professor at IE&M faculty of the Technion. Her research focuses on operations of service systems, in particular, healthcare and contact centres. Dr Yom-Tov is the Co-Director of the Service Engineering Enterprise Lab (SEE-Lab) a worldwide hub for research and teaching in Service Engineering. Her research aims to build models for understanding the impact of customer and agent behaviour on service systems and to incorporate these behaviours into operational models of such systems. Her multidisciplinary research approach applies a combination of data science and stochastic modelling to archives of digital traces from service systems. Her recent work used such data to study the dynamics of customer emotions in contact centres, the reaction of customers to waiting announcements in emergency departments, as well as other aspects of service delivery. Dr Yom-Tov has published her work in leading operations research journals, including Management ScienceManufacturing & Service Operations ManagementOperations Research, and Stochastic Systems.

Michaelmas Term 2019

How Does Multichannel Quality Information Affect Consumer Choice of Services? Social Media Vs. Government Report Cards
Dr Susan Feng Lu, Krannert School of Management, Purdue University 

12:30-14:00, 15 November 2019
Room 217 (Keynes House), Cambridge Judge Business School

Social media has emerged as an important channel to disseminate quality information to consumers in a variety of service settings, ranging from hotels to restaurants to home repairs. Its presence has recently spread to healthcare services, where government report cards have long been established to disclose quality information to the public. Although the effects of social media and government report cards on consumer choice have been previously studied, they are investigated in separate settings, and little work exists to study how they interact with each other in influencing consumer choice. We seek to address this question in the context of the US nursing home industry by quantifying the joint effect of online consumer ratings from Yelp and government ratings from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Both quality rating systems adopt a five star rating scale, making them comparable to each other from consumers’ perspective. We apply the difference in differences method with instrumental variables to estimate the effects of Yelp and government ratings on nursing homes’ resident admissions. We find that Yelp ratings may contradict government ratings. Nevertheless, higher Yelp ratings led to higher resident admissions on average. This effect was not uniformly distributed across consumers with different payment sources: Admissions of lucrative consumers, for example, Medicare covered residents, increased, whereas admissions of economically disadvantaged consumers, such as, Medicaid covered residents, decreased. Compared to government ratings, Yelp ratings exerted a stronger effect on consumer choice. Specifically, an additional star in the Yelp rating would on average increase a nursing home’s Medicare admissions by two percent more than an additional star in the government rating. To explain this result, we propose two mechanisms and provide supporting empirical evidence. First, Yelp’s brand recognition in other service settings helps to increase consumer awareness of its nursing home ratings, which we call the brand spillover effect. Second, the narrative presentation of consumer reviews on Yelp’s platform enables consumers to better process quality information, which we call the cognitive empathy effect. We also find that an additional star in the Yelp rating would on average increase a nursing home’s net income by $60,951 and total margin by 0.005. Although it appears to be financially beneficial, we find little evidence that nursing homes attempted to improve their Yelp ratings.

Dr Susan F. Lu is the Gerald Lyles Rising Star Associate Professor of Management at the Krannert School of Management, Purdue University. She received her PhD from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. She is also an affiliated faculty of healthcare engineering at the Regenstrief Center for Healthcare Engineering. Her research centers on healthcare operations and analytics, with an emphasis on nursing home operations and cardiac care delivery. Applying both empirical and machine learning methodologies, she investigates the operational drivers of healthcare delivery performance to understand the impact of public policies and technological innovations on the management of healthcare operations.

Dr Lu has published 21 research papers, many of which appeared in leading management and economics journals such as Science, Nature Scientific Reports, Management Science, POMS, Review of Economics and Statistics and Journal of Health Economics. She received the best paper award from the ASHE in 2008, which is one of the most prestigious awards in the community of health economists and is given to a single-authored paper every other year. In 2014, she received the Early Career Investigator from the National Institute of Health (NIH-HMORN) conference. In 2015, her paper about health IT received the WHITE best paper award, the most prestigious award in the field of health IT. In 2016, her paper about mandatory overtime laws was a finalist for the Pierskalla award by INFORMS Health Applications Society. In 2018, her work on treatments of heart attack was selected as a Best Abstract of the CRT 2018 Cardiovascular Research Technology Conference, which is one of the world’s leading interventional cardiology conferences and is attended by more than 3,000 doctors. In 2019, her paper on telemedicine won the best paper award in the Hawaii international conference on system Science.

Dr Lu’s work has gained considerable visibility in the fields of management and economics. One of her work was selected by Nature News for annual important discoveries in 2013. One work collaborating with a group of interdisciplinary researchers has been endorsed by the world known blog Freakonomics. One work combining operations management into policy analysis is recommended by a healthcare media Healthcare Value Hub. Another work on solving shortage of donated blood is recognised by the Nobel Prize Laureate Al Roth’s blog – Market Designer. Her paper which applies machine learning based techniques into empirical research appeared in the NBER Digest and Vox. Moreover, her work on the online physician rating platform has received attention from Castlight Health, a listing company.

Supply Chain Competition: A Market Game Approach
Dr Gizem Korpeoglu, Bilkent University

14:00-15:30, 29 November 2019
Room 217 (Keynes House), Cambridge Judge Business School

We study supply chains where multiple suppliers sell to multiple retailers through a wholesale market. In practice, we often observe that both suppliers and retailers tend to influence the wholesale market price retailers pay to suppliers. However, existing models of supply chain competition do not capture retailers’ influence on the wholesale price (for example, buyer power), and show that the wholesale price and the order quantity per retailer do not change with the number of retailers. To overcome this limitation, we develop a competition model based on the market game mechanism in which the wholesale price is determined based on both suppliers’ and retailers’ decisions. When taking into account retailers’ buyer power, we obtain the result that is consistent with the observed practice: as the number of retailers increases, each retailer’s buyer power decreases, and each retailer is willing to pay more for their order, so the wholesale price increases. In this case, supply chain expansion to include more retailers (or suppliers) turns out to be more beneficial in terms of supply chain efficiency than what the prior literature shows without considering buyer power. Finally, we analyse the integration of two local supply chains and show that, although the profit of the integrated supply chain is greater than the sum of total profits of local supply chains, integration may reduce the total profit of firms in a retailer oriented supply chain that has more retailers than suppliers.

Dr Gizem Korpeoglu is an assistant professor of Industrial Engineering at Bilkent University. Before joining Bilkent, she was a postdoctoral fellow of Operations and Technology at University College London, School of Management. She received her PhD in Economics from Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon University, and also holds an MS degree from there. She received her BS degree from Middle East Technical University.

Dr Korpeoglu studies operational problems in traditional and innovative marketplaces using game theoretical models. During her PhD studies, she has worked on competition models and mechanism design. After her PhD, she has applied her methodological knowledge on markets and competition models to supply chains, crowdsourcing platforms, and other online marketplaces. Her work has appeared at leading operations journals such as Management Science and Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, and economics journals such as Journal of Mathematical Economics and Economic Theory. She is a member of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS) and Production and Operations Management Society (POMS), and the recipient of the second prize at INFORMS Technology Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship Section (TIMES) best working paper competition in 2018.

Easter Term 2019

Data Driven Healthcare, Big And Small
Dr Z. Justin Ren, Boston University Questrom School of Business

12:30-14:00, 19 July 2019
Room KH217, Cambridge Judge Business School

In this seminar, Dr Ren will present two recent empirical papers on healthcare that are co-authored with his colleagues. One paper uses “small data”, for example, data collected within a hospital, to uncover the relationship between hospital internal operations and its quality outcome. The other paper uses “big data”, for example, a nationwide healthcare insurance claim data set, to study the cost implications of high deductible health plans.

Details on the two published papers are as follows: Zheng, S., Tucker A. L., Ren, Z.J., Heineke, J., McLaughlin, A., Podell, A. L. (2018) “The impact of internal service quality on preventable adverse events in hospitals.” Production and Operations Management 27(12):2201-2212

Zheng S., Ren, Z. J., Heineke, J., and Geissler, K. (2016) “Reductions in diagnostic imaging with high deductible health plans”. Medical Care 54(2):110-7 (Lead Article)

Z. Justin Ren is an Associate Professor of Business Administration at Boston University Questrom School of Business, and a faculty researcher at Boston University Institute of Sustainable Energy (ISE). He was also a Research Affiliate at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Sloan School of Management (2009-2014).

At Boston University, Dr Ren teaches Core operations management courses and a data analytics course that helps managers gain market intelligence and make strategic decisions. He also teaches in executive education in financial risk management. He is a certified teacher by the Harvard Business School Case Method Discussion Leadership Program.

Dr Ren’s research focuses on supply chain coordination, healthcare service quality, and clean energy transition. His research has appeared in publications such as Management Science, Operations Research, Production and Operations Management, and Medical Care. He has received several recognitions, including the INFORMS George B. Dantzig Dissertation Award, INFORMS Junior Faculty Paper Competition Award, and the Production and Operations Management Society (POMS) Wickham Skinner Early-Career Research Accomplishments Award. His consulting clients include INTEL, Staples, BestBuy, Payless Rental Car, PWC, among others.

Professor Ren received his MA degree from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, his MS and PhD in Operations and Information Management from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.

Pride and Prejudice: the Human Side of Interventional Cardiology
Dr Tinglong Dai, Johns Hopkins University

12:30-14:00, 30 August 2019
Room KH217, Cambridge Judge Business School

Few issues in the healthcare ecosystem are more salient than the utilisation of medical tests. By some estimates, up to 30 per cent of medical testing decisions are deemed inappropriate, which may entail either over or under testing. All too frequently, the public attention has centred on over-testing. By comparison, under testing has received little media coverage, but is prevalent in the medical literature. In addition, contrary to popular belief, the US trails most OECD countries in terms of the utilisation of medical tests.

In this talk, Tinglong will discuss a series of modelling efforts aimed at understanding diagnostic experts’ decision making processes. These efforts, motivated by the interventional cardiology setting, seek to provide a theory of under testing by accounting for both reputational and revenue inducement incentives. Tinglong will also highlight implications for policymakers and healthcare executives with regard to incentive design for improving diagnostic accuracy.

Tinglong Dai is an Associate Professor of Operations Management and Business Analytics at Johns Hopkins University, Carey Business School. His research, recognised by many awards such as Johns Hopkins Discovery Award, INFORMS Public Sector Operations Research Best Paper, and POMS Best Healthcare Paper Award, spans across healthcare, marketing/operations interfaces, and AI-enabled business.

Tinglong’s research has been accepted for publication in leading journals such as Management Science, M&SOM, Marketing Science, Operations Research, and INFORMS Journal on Computing. He is an Associate Editor of Naval Research Logistics and is on the Editorial Review Board of Production and Operations Management. He co-chairs the Johns Hopkins Symposium on Healthcare Operations and co-edits the Handbook of Healthcare Analytics: Theoretical Minimum for Conducting 21st Century Research on Healthcare Operations, published by John Wiley & Sons in 2018.

Tinglong received his PhD (2013) and MS (2009) in Operations Management/Robotics from Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, in addition to an MPhil (2006) in Industrial Engineering from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

Lent Term 2019

Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program does not Provide the Right Incentives: Issues and Remedies
Professor Tolga Tezcan, London Business School

12:30-14:00, 1 March 2019
Room 217 (Keynes House), Cambridge Judge Business School

The Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) reduces Medicare payments to hospitals with higher than expected readmission rates where the expected readmission rate for each hospital is determined based on national average readmission levels.

Although similar relative performance based schemes are shown to lead to socially optimal outcomes in other settings, HRRP differs from these schemes in three respects:

  1. deviation from the targets are adjusted using a multiplier
  2. the total financial penalty for a hospital with higher-than-expected readmission rate is capped
  3. hospitals with lower-than-expected readmission rates do not receive bonus payments.

We study three regulatory schemes derived from HRRP to determine the impact of each feature, and use a principle-agent model to show that:

  1. HRRP over-penalises hospitals with excess readmissions because of the multiplier and its effect can be substantial
  2. having a penalty cap can curtail the effect of financial incentives and result in a no-equilibrium outcome when the cap is too low
  3. not allowing bonus payments leads to many alternative symmetric equilibria, including one where hospitals exert no effort to reduce readmissions.

These results show that HRRP does not provide the right incentives for hospitals to reduce readmissions.

Next we show that a bundled payment type reimbursement method, which reimburses hospitals once for each episode of care (including readmissions), leads to socially optimal cost and readmissions reduction efforts.

Finally we show that, when delays to accessing care are inevitable, the reimbursement schemes need to provide additional incentives for hospitals to invest sufficiently in capacity

Tolga Tezcan is a Professor of Management Science and Operations at London Business School (LBS). He teaches courses in data mining and business analytics. Prior to joining LBS, he was a faculty member at Simon School of Business in University of Rochester between 2010 and 2015, where he was placed in the teaching honour roll in 2014, and at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign between 2006 and 2010.

Tolga holds a PhD in industrial and systems engineering and a MS in mathematics from Georgia Tech, a MS in industrial and systems engineering from Colorado State-Pueblo, and a BS in industrial engineering from Bilkent University, Turkey. Tolga’s research focuses on the robust management of service systems, such as customer service centres and healthcare systems, under uncertainty.

His research has appeared in leading journals such as Management Science, Operations Research, M&SOM, and Annals of Applied Probability.

He has received the Career Award from National Science Foundation (NSF) of USA in 2010.

Predicting Surgery Duration: Physician Input, Statistical Models, and Combined Models
Professor Song-Hee Kim, Usc Marshall School of Business

13:30-14:30, 15 March 2019
Room 217 (Keynes House), Cambridge Judge Business School

Most data-driven tools do not ask people for their input. We study whether and how to incorporate the discretion/expertise/intuition of physicians into data-driven decision support tools for improved operational decision-making in hospitals, in an empirical setting of predicting the surgery duration.

We consider three families of models for predicting the surgery duration: models with physician input, statistical models, and models that combine the two. Using the operating room scheduling and usage data from an academic hospital collected over three years, we empirically evaluate and compare the performances of the different models. We find that physician input offers predictive power beyond that of statistical models in our empirical setting. The best performing model is the combined model which includes the physician input as a feature in a statistical model with other predictors. The corrected physician input model, which applies a simple correction to the physician input, performs comparably well (the mean squared error increases by five per cent), when corrections are applied at the surgeon-procedure level. Without the physician input, the mean squared error of the best performing model increases by 17 per cent. We also compare the performances of the operating-room schedules resulting from our models and show that the results carry over.

Our findings suggest that hospital managers should consider eliciting physician input and incorporating it into data-driven decision support tools. We also show how physician input can be best leveraged in the context of predicting the surgery duration. Understanding the benefits/costs of allowing expert input in decision-making has been attracting the interest of the OM community in various application areas. We contribute to this line of research by studying the effect of incorporating physician input on operating room use. For hospital managers, we show the potential value of incorporating physician input in data-driven decision support tools.

This is joint work with Rouba Ibrahim (University College London).

Song-Hee Kim is an Assistant Professor of Operations Management in the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California. Her research interests are on using empirical and statistical analysis to build models for decision-making. She has a particular interest in healthcare applications, and has been actively involved in collaborative research projects with several hospitals including the Keck Hospital of USC, Yale New Haven Hospital, Kaiser Permanente in Northern California and Samsung Medical Centre in South Korea. Her research has been published in Management ScienceOperations Research, and Manufacturing & Service Operations Management. She has received several academic awards including the Best OM Paper in Management Science Award (winner), MSOM Best Paper Award (finalist), INFORMS Pierskalla Award (finalist), MSOM Student Paper Award (first place), and INFORMS Health Applications Society Student Paper Award (finalist). Song-Hee completed her PhD in Operations Research from Columbia University and earned her BS in Operations Research and Industrial Engineering from Cornell University. Prior to joining the Marshall School, she was a postdoctoral associate at the Yale School of Management.

Examining Health Workforce Perceptions of Organisational Expectations in Disasters: Leadership Considerations
Dr Daniel Barnett, Bloomberg School of Public Health

12:30-13:30, 15 March 2019
Room 217 (Keynes House), Cambridge Judge Business School

An ever-expanding array of disasters and emergent public health threats has raised operationally-relevant research questions about the willingness of public health and other healthcare workers to fulfil organisational expectations in disaster response and recovery. Dr Daniel Barnett from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and colleagues have examined perceptual and attitudinal barriers and facilitators toward such willingness among these cohorts, including a focus on health organisational leadership perspectives in such contexts. Their findings have yielded novel, behavioural model-based curricular interventions to address these willingness gaps in health organisations. This presentation will accordingly focus on findings from mixed-methods research, including regarding these workers’ and their leaders’ commitment to, and sense of efficacy in the context of, their organisations in the face of disasters and emergent threats to public health and safety. The presentation will include currently unpublished data on health departments workers’ perceptions toward disaster recovery in a variety of Hurricane Sandy-impacted US jurisdictions from the states of Maryland and New Jersey. The presentation will also explicitly address broader organisational behaviour-relevant implications of these and related findings for current and future disaster preparedness, response and recovery efforts, including in international contexts.

Daniel Barnett, MD, MPH is an Associate Professor in the Department of Environmental Health & Engineering at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (JHSPH), where he has a joint appointment in the Department of Health Policy and Management and is on the Core Faculty of the Office of Public Health Practice & Training. His research interests include evidence-based approaches to organisational enhancement of public health emergency preparedness. Dr Barnett previously worked at Baltimore City Health Department’s Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response, where he conducted disaster preparedness training activities for the department’s workers. He received his MD degree from The Ohio State University College of Medicine and Public Health; his MPH degree was earned at The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and he is a graduate of the Johns Hopkins General Preventive Medicine Residency Program.

Michaelmas Term 2018

Establishing Trust and Trustworthiness in Global Businesses
Professor Özalp Özer, Jindal School of Management

12:00-14:00, 9 October 2018
Room W2.01, Cambridge Judge Business School

In this presentation, Özalp will discuss when, how, and why the behavioural motives of trust and trustworthiness arise to support cooperation within and across businesses.

The session will identify four building blocks of trust and trustworthiness: personal values and norms, market environment, business infrastructure, and business process design. Özalp elaborate on these building blocks and offer tangible insights about how to establish trusting and cooperative business relationships. To do so, the session will provide a high level summary of some research results and case studies from across industries.

As part of the upcoming seminar, the group will play an interactive game. Please bring a laptop and also read the game instructions before the seminar (provided) – it takes only five minutes to do so. Faculty and students (participants of the seminar) will be playing with each other and the winner will get a prize. Participants will be encouraged to think a little about strategy (but don’t discuss it with others)… It will be a fun game!

Özalp Özer is Ashbel Smith Professor of Management Science at the University of Texas at Dallas, Jindal School of Management. He spent his 2013/14 sabbatical as a Visiting Professor at MIT Sloan School of Management. Previously he was a faculty member at Columbia University and Stanford University. His areas of specialty include end-to-end management and coordination of global value chains, strategic investment decisions, capacity and inventory planning, market timing, distribution channel management, procurement contract design, and retail and pricing management. Besides scuba diving, he is passionate about working with researchers and practitioners on the next new ‘think’ that calls for the exciting opportunity to explore, learn, and contribute. Özalp is also a recipient of the Wickham Skinner Early-Career Research Accomplishment Award from POM Society, the Hellman faculty fellowship, the Terman faculty fellowship, and the Eugene Grant Teaching Award at Stanford by vote of students in 2003 and 2004 and teaching awards at Columbia in 2009 and at MIT in 2014. announced him to be named as a Favorite Professor by Top Executive MBA programme students. Özalp is also an editor of The Oxford Handbook of Pricing Management published by Oxford Univerity Press in 2012. His articles have appeared in journals such as Management Science, and Operations Research. He is currently serving as an associate editor for Management Science, M&SOM, Operations Research, and Production and Operations Management. He is an active consultant to industry and has consulted companies such as General Motors, Hewlett Packard, Hitachi GST, IBM and Neiman Marcus. He received his PhD and MS degrees from Columbia University.

Easter Term 2018

Unintended Consequences of Hospital Regulation: The Case of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP)
Dr Nicos Savva, London Business School

12:30-14:00, 18 May 2018
Room W4.03, Cambridge Judge Business School

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010 represents one of the most significant regulatory overhauls of the United State healthcare system since the initial establishment of Medicare and Medicaid. While attention has largely been directed towards provisions that expanded medical coverage, the ACA also established several incentive schemes aimed at reforming the care delivery process by holding hospitals accountable for their performance in order to rein in costs and improve quality. One of the first such schemes introduced was the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP), which requires the Centres of Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to reduce payments to hospitals that exhibit higher than average 30-day risk-adjusted readmission rates.

This paper examines the impact of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) on hospitals’ admission behaviour. We exploit variation in hospitals’ financial exposure to HRRP penalties due to i) readmission performance, and ii) financial constraints, to show that hospitals reduced readmissions post HRRP at least to some extent by increasing the number of patients that were classified as admitted for “observation.” Under this classification patients do not count as admissions for HRRP purposes. This increase is estimated to be 12.7 per cent more for hospitals that were exposed to HRRP penalties compared to non-penalised hospitals, and as much as 31.1 per cent if the hospital was also financially constrained.

The magnitude of this effect is operationally significant; rough calculations suggest that over 40 per cent of the readmission reduction that followed HRRP can be attributed to the change in observation bed usage. Our results also have implications for the implementation of HRRP which is based on average-performance benchmarks. When hospitals use observations beds to reduce their readmission figures, they also lower the average readmission rate against which other hospitals are penalised, hurting high-performing hospitals not managing readmissions though observation beds.

Research co-authored by Chris Chen.

Nicos Savva is an Associate Professor of Management Science and Operations at London Business School, where he teaches courses on data analytics, modelling, and healthcare management. Nicos’s research examines healthcare operations and innovation and has appeared in leading journals such as Management ScienceManufacturing & Service Operations Management, and Production and Operations Management. Nicos holds editorial positions in Management ScienceManufacturing & Service Operations Management, and Production and Operations Management. He holds a PhD in Management Science, an MPhil in Finance, and an MA in Natural Science (Physics), all from the University of Cambridge.

The Effect of Flexibility in Delegating Innovation
Dr Morvarid Rahmani, Scheller College of Business, Georgia Tech

12:30-14:00, 22 May 2018
Room W2.02, Cambridge Judge Business School

In many contexts such as product design and advertising, clients seek the expertise of external providers to generate innovative solutions for their business problems. In such delegated engagements, providers can improve the quality of solutions through the intensity of their efforts, and clients can evaluate solutions and decide when to stop the project. In this paper, we explore how the client’s flexibility in stopping the project influences the progress and efficiency of the delegated innovation. In particular, we compare two structures: “committed”, where the client stops the project immediately if the provider delivers an acceptable solution, and “open-ended”, where the client retains the flexibility to continue the project even after receiving an acceptable solution. We show that, when innovation is delegated, the client’s flexibility can lead to lower early efforts by the provider and thus may not always benefit the client. We generate insights regarding the appropriateness of the two structures with respect to the problem difficulty and provider’s capability. In addition, we extend our model and analysis in several directions by capturing the effects of client’s transparency, optimal payments, project timeline, and provider’s capability improvement.

Morvarid Rahmani is an Assistant Professor of Operations Management, at the Scheller College of Business, at Georgia Tech. She received her PhD from the UCLA Anderson School of Management. She also received three masters degrees, in Industrial Engineering, Electrical Engineering, and Economics.
Dr Rahmani’s research brings together the operational perspective of process improvement and the economic perspective of innovation and collaboration. Her research focuses on the study of the dynamics of collaboration in knowledge-based work processes such as new product or service development, management and IT consulting, technical projects, and education. Her research generates insights for advancing strategic decision-making, both across organisations and within them. She has published her research in Management Science, and Production and Operations Management journals. Her dissertation research paper on Collaborative Work Dynamics was a finalist in the Manufacturing & Service Operations Management Best Student Paper Competition.

Dr Rahmani has taught Core Operations Management in full-time and evening MBA programmes, and a seminar course on Managing Innovation and Product Development in the PhD programme at the Scheller College of Business. She has received the Brady Family Award for Faculty Teaching Excellence at the Scheller College of Business.

CANCELLED: Prioritising Access to Hepatitis C Treatment in Correctional Health Facilities
Dr Turgay Ayer, H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial & Systems Engineering

12:30-14:00, 25 May 2018
Room W4.03, Cambridge Judge Business School

About one out of six inmates in the United States (US) is infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence in prison systems is 10 times higher than the general population, and hence prison systems offer a unique opportunity to control the HCV epidemic. New HCV treatment drugs are very effective, but providing treatment to all inmates is prohibitively expensive, which precludes universal HCV treatment in prison systems. As such, current practice recommends prioritising treatment based on clinical and incarceration-related factors, including disease staging, remaining sentence length, and injection drug use (IDU) status. However, there is controversy about how these factors should be incorporated because of the complicated tradeoffs.

In this study, we propose a restless bandit modelling framework to support hepatitis C treatment prioritisation decisions in US prisons. We first prove indexability for our problem and derive several structural properties of the well-known Whittle’s index, based on which, we derive a closed-form expression of the Whittle’s index for patients with advanced liver disease. From the interpretation of this closed-form expression, we anticipate that the performance of the Whittle’s index would degrade as the treatment capacity increases; and to address this limitation, we propose a capacity-adjusted closed-form index policy. We parameterise and validate our model using real-world data from Georgia state prison system and published studies. We test the performance of our proposed policy using a detailed, clinically-realistic simulation model and show that our proposed policy can significantly improve the overall effectiveness of the hepatitis C treatment programmes in prisons compared with the current practice and other benchmark policies, including the commonly used Whittle’s index policy.

Our results also shed light on several controversial health policy issues in hepatitis C treatment prioritisation in the prison setting and have important policy implications including: 1) prioritisation based on only liver health status, a commonly practiced policy, is suboptimal compared with many other policies we consider. Further, considering remaining sentence length of inmates and IDU status in addition to liver health status in prioritisation decisions can lead to a significant performance improvement; 2) the decision of whether to prioritise patients with shorter or longer remaining sentence lengths depends on the treatment capacities inside and outside the prison system, and prioritising patients with shorter remaining sentence lengths may be preferable in some cases, especially if the treatment capacity inside the prison system is not very tight and linkage-to-care level outside prison system is low; and 3) among patients with advanced liver disease, IDUs should not be prioritised unless their reinfection is very-well controlled. Lastly, we introduce and discuss a decision support tool we have developed for practical use.

Turgay Ayer is the George Family Foundation Early Career professor and an associate professor at Industrial and Systems Engineering, and is the research director for medical decision-making in the Center for Health & Humanitarian Systems at Georgia Tech. In addition, Dr Ayer has a courtesy appointment at Emory Medical School.

His research focuses on healthcare analytics, with applications in predictive health, medical decision making, healthcare operations, and health policy. His research papers have been published in top tier engineering, management, and medical journals, and covered by popular media outlets, including the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, US News, and NPR.

Dr Ayer has received several awards for his work, including an NSF CAREER Award (2015), Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM) Lee Lusted Award (2009), first place in the MSOM Best Practice-Based Research Competition (2017), and a finalist in the 2017 INFORMS Franz Edelman Competition (2017).

Ayer received a BS in industrial engineering from Sabanci University in Istanbul, Turkey, and his MS and PhD degrees in industrial and Systems Engineering from the University of Wisconsin – Madison.

Ayer is a member of INFORMS and Society for Medical Decision Making, an associate editor for Operations Research, and is a past president of the INFORMS Health Application Society.

Lent Term 2018

Supply Chain Management through Cascading
Dr Feryal Erhun, Cambridge Judge Business School

12:30-14:00, 9 January 2018
Room W2.01, Cambridge Judge Business School

This study focuses on contracting for a three-tier supply chain consisting of a buyer, tier one supplier, and tier two sub-supplier where disruptions of random length occur at tier two. As is common in many supply chains, the buyer has a direct relationship with the tier one supplier but not the tier two sub-supplier; that is, the buyer has limited supply chain visibility. Both the supplier and sub-supplier can reserve emergency capacity prior to observing the disruption to protect the supply chain from the disruption. The study looks at how the buyer and the supplier can guarantee that the correct level of emergency capacity is built prior to the disruption. Due to two types of inefficiencies – a special form of double-marginalisation and the substitution effect – the supply chain is misaligned in its decentralised form. Although the lack of visibility prevents the buyer from directly contracting with the sub-supplier to eliminate these inefficiencies, they can still coordinate the supply chain through cascading, for example, contracting with the supplier, who in turn contracts with the sub-supplier. Despite supply chain coordination, the supplier benefits from the buyer’s limited supply chain visibility.

Collaborative work with Dr Georg Schorpp and Professor Hau Lee.

Dr Feryal Erhun is Reader in Operations Management Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge. Feryal’s research interests are in the topic of supply chain management, including risk management in supply chains, new product transitions, and supply contracts. Her current research also includes studies healthcare operations.

Dr Erhun is a strong proponent of practice-based research. In collaboration with Intel Corporation, her research group has designed a decision-support system for optimising capital investment decisions for firms in capital-intensive industries. This work has been selected as one of the finalists in the 2012 Edelman competition and Feryal has been inducted as an Edelman Laureate. She is also a recipient of 2006 NSF CAREER Award.

Feryal serves on the editorial boards of Manufacturing and Service Operations Management and Production and Operations Management. She received her PhD in Business Administration, with a concentration in Production and Operations Management from the Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Mellon University in 2002. She holds a BS and a MS in Industrial Engineering from Bilkent University.

A Large-Scale Optimisation Model for Replicating Portfolios in the Life Insurance Industry
Professor Karl Schmedders, University of Zurich

13:00-14:00, 16 January 2018
Room W2.02, Cambridge Judge Business School

Replicating portfolios have emerged as an important tool in the life insurance industry, used for the valuation of companies’ liabilities. This paper describes the replicating portfolio (RP) model for approximating life insurance liabilities in place in a large global insurance company. We describe the challenges presented by the latest solvency regimes in Europe and how the RP model enables this company to comply with the Swiss Solvency Test. The model minimises the L1 error between the discounted life insurance liability cash flows and the discounted RP cash flows over a multi-period time horizon for a broad range of different future economic scenarios. A numerical application of the RP model to empirical data sets demonstrates that the model delivers RPs that match the liabilities and perform well for economic capital calculations.

Karl Schmedders has been a Professor of Quantitative Business Administration in the Faculty of Business, Economics, and Informatics at the University in Zurich since 2008. In addition, he is a Visiting Professor of Executive Education at the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University in Evanston, USA.

Karl received a PhD in operations research from Stanford University in 1996. After a two-year post-doc at the Hoover Institution, a thinktank on the Stanford campus, he became an assistant professor of managerial economics and decision sciences at the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University. He was promoted to associate professor in 2001 and received tenure at Kellogg in 2005. He continued to work at Kellogg until his departure to Zurich.

His research focuses on computational economics and finance. He applies numerical solution techniques to complex economic and financial models shedding light on relevant practical problems. He has published numerous research articles in international academic journals such as Econometrica, The Review of Economic Studies, The Journal of Finance, and The Review of Financial Studies, among others.

Project Selection and Investment Carryovers in the Drug Development Process
Panos Markou, Cambridge Judge Business School

12:00-14:00, 12 March 2018
Castle Teaching Room, Cambridge Judge Business School

In developing new products, firms must balance entering into new domains (high uncertainty) with exploiting old domains (high competition). We leverage a unique database and rebuild the drug development pipelines of the Top 15 pharmaceutical companies between 1999-2016 in order to examine how firms select which projects to pursue and what impacts project success and failure. We find that firms select projects where they have prior experience, but that selection also depends on technological signals from rivals. Early-stage, uninformative technological signals increase the likelihood that the firm will diversify its search efforts to other domains, whereas late-stage, informative signals increase the likelihood of moving into the domain, but only if the rivals do not have a substantially large head-start. Moreover, conditional on selecting a project for further development, prior successful investments inform the firm as to what solutions work in a domain and increase the likelihood of future success. Prior failed investments inform as to what does not work and increase the likelihood of terminating future projects earlier.

Panos Markou is a Research Assistant at the Entrepreneurship at Cambridge Judge Business School. He is a strong believer in research that is grounded in practice and has the potential for large impact and relevance. Currently, he is working with BMW to analyse their portfolio of purchasing contracts and optimise their procurement and financial hedging strategy. During his doctoral studies, he worked with BMW to develop and implement a tool to evaluate commodity price indices for index-linked purchase contracts. Prior to this, Panos collaborated with Banco Santander in organising and hosting the 6th Annual Supply Chain Finance Symposium, and with Delta Air Lines in the TechOps Division. His research interests include the interface of finance, operations, and risk management; supply chain finance; empirical operations management.

Warning Against Recurring Risks: An Information Design Approach
Professor Francis de Vericourt, European School of Management and Technology

12:30-14:00, 20 March 2018
Room W2.01, Cambridge Judge Business School

The World Health Organization seeks effective ways to alert its member states about global pandemics. Motivated by this challenge, this study focuses on a public agency’s problem of designing warning policies to mitigate potential disasters that occur with advance notice. The agency privately receives early information about recurring harmful events and issues warnings to induce an uninformed party to take costly pre-emptive actions. The agency’s decision about whether to issue a warning critically depends on its credibility, which we define as the uninformed party’s belief regarding the accuracy of the agency’s information. This belief is updated over time by comparing the agency’s warnings with the actual incidence of harmful events. The sender, therefore, faces a trade-off between eliciting a proper response today and maintaining her credibility in order to elicit responses to future adverse events. The study formulates this problem as a dynamic Bayesian persuasion game, which is solved in closed form. Findings show that the agency must be sufficiently credible to elicit a mitigating action from the uninformed party for a given period. More importantly, the agency sometimes strategically misrepresents its advance information about a current threat in order to cultivate its future credibility. When its credibility is low (for example, below a threshold), the agency downplays the risk and actually downplays more as its credibility improves. By contrast, when its credibility is high (for example, above a second higher threshold), the agency sometimes exaggerates the threat. In this case, a less credible agency exaggerates more. Only when the agency’s credibility is moderate does it consistently send warning messages that fully disclose its private information about a potential disaster. These findings provide prescriptive guidelines for designing warning policies and suggest a plausible rationale for some of the false alarms or omissions observed in practice.

Francis de Véricourt is Professor of Management Science at ESMT European School of Management and Technology. From August 2010 until August 2013 he was on leave at INSEAD, where he was an Associate Professor of Technology and Operations Management and the Paul Dubrule Chaired Professor of Sustainable Development. He was the Associate Dean of Research at ESMT from 2007 to 2010. Before joining ESMT in 2007, Francis was an Associate Professor of Operations Management at Fuqua School of Business, Duke University. In 2000, he was a post-doctoral researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Francis received his PhD in Operations Research with Honours from Université Paris VI, France, in 2000. He holds an honours degree in Engineering in Applied Mathematics and Information Technology from Ecole Nationale Supérieure d’lnformatique et de Mathematiques Appliquées de Grenoble (ENSIMAG).

Francis’s general research interest is in the area of data-driven and managerial decision-making, with a current focus on healthcare, business sustainability, and service systems. He is the author of many research articles and has extensively published in leading academic journals, including Management Science, Operations Research, and American Economic Review. For his research, he has received a number of outstanding awards, including the 2011 MSOM best paper award of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. He also holds editorial positions in flagship journals in operations research and management science.

Francis received numerous teaching awards for delivering classes to MBA and Executive MBA students at ESMT and INSEAD. He frequently teaches Executive Education Programs and is a regular speaker in academic and industry forums.

Proactive Customer Service: Operational and Economic Analysis
Dr Tolga Tezcan, London Business School

12:30-14:00, 23 March 2018
Room W4.03, Cambridge Judge Business School

This seminar focuses on the study of a service setting where the provider may have advance information about customers’ future service needs and may initiate service for these customers proactively. Information about future customer service needs is becoming increasingly available due to better system integration coupled with advanced analytics and Big Data methods. To study this setting, the research combines (i) queueing theory, and in particular a diffusion approximation developed specifically for this problem, to quantify the impact of proactive service on customer delays with (ii) game theory to investigate the incentives of customers to agree to be served proactively. Findings show that proactive service reduces average delays, and we develop a closed-form approximation that shows that the benefit of proactive service is increasing concave in the proportion of customers who can be served proactively. Nevertheless, the study finds that in equilibrium, customers are less willing to agree to be served proactively compared to social optimum because of a positive externality leading to free riding behaviour, customers who agree to be served proactively reduce the waiting time for everyone, including those customers who do not have to suffer the inconvenience of being served proactively. The results suggest that proactive service may have a large operational benefit, but caution that it may fail to fulfil its potential due to customer self-interested behaviour.

Joint work with Kraig Delana and Nicos Savva.

Dr Tolga Tezcan is an Associate Professor of Management Science and Operations at London Business School. He teaches courses in Data Mining and Business Analytics. Prior to joining LBS, he was a faculty member at Simon School of Business at the University of Rochester between 2010 and 2015, where he was placed in the teaching honour roll in 2014, and at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign between 2006 and 2010.

Tolga holds a PhD in Industrial and Systems Engineering and an MS in Mathematics from Georgia Tech, an MS in Industrial and Systems Engineering from Colorado State-Pueblo, and a BS in Industrial Engineering from Bilkent University, Turkey. Tolga’s research focuses on the robust management of service systems, such as customer service centres and healthcare systems, under uncertainty. His research has appeared in leading journals such as Management Science, Operations Research, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, and Annals of Applied Probability. He has received the Career Award from National Science Foundation (NSF) USA in 2010.

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