The space sector already illustrates such concentration. In fiscal year 2024, SpaceX conducted 118 of the 142 commercial launches licenced by the US Federal Aviation Administration, or 83%. The Comment in Nature is by Luisa Corrado, Professor of Economics at the University of Rome Tor Vergata and Visiting Research Fellow at Cambridge Judge Business School, and Paul Kattuman, Professor of Economics at Cambridge Judge.
One system should not become the default
“Leading suppliers of frontier technologies might owe their position to outstanding performance,” they write. “But repeated awards to the same supplier can become a problem if they make one system the default around which future work is planned.”
Artificial intelligence and quantum technologies are 2 other areas in which government choices made now will shape future investment and use, the authors add. Decisions about how systems are purchased and assessed can give some suppliers or technical approaches an early advantage that later entrants find difficult to overcome.
There are some examples in which governments have encouraged competition in frontier technologies. The article points to the ESA (European Space Agency)’s European Launch Challenge, which uses a staged process to broaden choice, and the European Union’s IRIS satellite programme, which requires a share of large contracts to be subcontracted beyond the main provider.
Avoiding chokepoints that stifle free markets
Maintaining a second supplier in strategic areas can be a form of insurance say Luisa and Paul, who also encourage governments to begin with smaller contract commitments while leaving subsequent decisions open as the range and capabilities of suppliers mature.
“Governments often have to act before frontier markets have taken shape,” they conclude. “Public money should create capability without surrendering future choice. It should build markets that remain open, not private chokepoints that future governments will have to undo.”
Related research at Cambridge Judge
The space-market questions examined in the Comment also form part of a growing programme of research at Cambridge Judge Business School. Based at the Centre for India and Global Business, the Space Economy Initiative examines how emerging space capabilities can develop into viable frontier markets while remaining accessible and responsive to public needs.
Featured research
Corrado, L. and Kattuman, P. (2026) “Frontier-technology markets are too narrow – here’s how to widen them.” Nature, 656: 819-822 (DOI: 10.1038/d41586-026-02572-8)
Space Economy Initiative
The Space Economy Initiative within the Centre for India and Global Business at Cambridge Business School brings together researchers across engineering, economics, governance and policy to make space activity more accessible – particularly for emerging economies and public-interest missions.
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