Associate Professor in Economics & Policy
Fellow of King’s College
BSc (University of Warwick), MPhil, PhD (University of Cambridge)
Research interests
Macroeconomics; global and national macroeconometric modelling; energy economics; climate change; economics of the Middle East.
Subject group: Economics & Policy
Professional experience
Kamiar is Co-Director of the King’s Entrepreneurship Lab at King’s College, Cambridge. He is an Economic Research Forum (ERF) Research Fellow, and serves as its Thematic Co-Leader for the macroeconomics theme. He is also an Associate Researcher at the Energy Policy Research Group (EPRG) at the University of Cambridge, an Associate Fellow of the USC Dornsife Institute for New Economic Thinking, a Research Associate at the Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and a Research Associate at the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis at ANU in Australia.
His articles have been published in a number of edited volumes (Cambridge University Press, Oxford University Press, and Routledge) as well as in leading journals, including the Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of International Economics, and the Review of Economics and Statistics. His research has also been covered in major international news outlets including the BBC, Bloomberg, The Economist, the Financial Times, The New York Times, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post.
He is currently a consultant at the Asian Development Bank and has previously served as Departmental Special Advisor at the Bank of Canada, a consultant at the United Nations ESCWA, and has been a regular visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund. He has worked closely with colleagues at these institutions to, for instance, develop tools to help examine and disentangle the size and speed of the transmission of different global, regional, and national macroeconomic shocks. Kamiar has also worked on issues related to climate change and sustainability with a number of organisations including KPMG and RMS.
Previous appointments
Dr Kamiar Mohaddes was previously a Janeway Fellow in Economics at the Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
Selected publications
Here are a selection of Kamiar Mohaddes’ publications. Please see the “Selected publications” tab above for a more comprehensive list.
Kahn, M.E., Mohaddes, K., Ng, R.N.C., Pesaran, M.H., Raissi, M. and Yang, J.-C. (2021) “Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: a cross-country analysis.” Energy Economics 104: 105624 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105624)
Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (2019) Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press (DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.001.0001)
Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, H.M. and Raissi, M. (2017) “Is there a debt-threshold effect on output growth?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(1): 135-150 (DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00593)
Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2017) “Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño.” Journal of International Economics, 106: 37-54 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.010)
Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, M.H. (2016) “Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy: a counterfactual analysis.” Energy Economics, 59: 382-399 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.007)
Cavalcanti, T.V.D.V., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2015) “Commodity price volatility and the sources of growth.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30(6): 857-873 (DOI: 10.1002/jae.2407)
Journal articles
Cavalcanti, T.V.D.V., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2011) “Does oil abundance harm growth?” Applied Economics Letters, 18(12): 1181-1184 (DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2010.528356)
Cavalcanti, T.V.D.V., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2011) “Growth, development and natural resources: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis.” Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 51(4): 305-318 (DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2011.07.007)
Mohaddes, K. (2013) “Econometric modelling of world oil supplies: terminal price and the time to depletion.” OPEC Energy Review, 37(2): 162-193 (DOI: 10.1111/opec.12012)
Esfahani, H.S., Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, H. (2013) “Oil exports and the Iranian economy.” Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 53(3): 221-237 (DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2012.07.001)
Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2013) “Oil prices, external income, and growth: lessons from Jordan.” Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 9(2): 99-131 (DOI: 10.1515/rmeef-2012-0011)
Mohaddes, K. and Williams, O.H. (2014) “Inflation differentials in the GCC.” Middle East Development Journal, 5(2): 1350012-1-1350012-23 (DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500120)
Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M. and Raissi, M. (2014) “The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy.” Energy Economics, 44: 113-134 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.014)
Esfahani, H.S., Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, M.H. (2014) “An empirical growth model for major oil exporters.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 29(1): 1-21 (DOI: 10.1002/jae.2294)
Cavalcanti, T.V.D.V., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2015) “Commodity price volatility and the sources of growth.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30(6): 857-873 (DOI: 10.1002/jae.2407)
Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, M.H. (2016) “Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy: a counterfactual analysis.” Energy Economics, 59: 382-399 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.007)
Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2016) “El Niño: good boy or bad?” Finance and Development, 53(1): 30-33
Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, H.M. and Raissi, M. (2017) “Is there a debt-threshold effect on output growth?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(1): 135-150 (DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00593)
Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2017) “Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño.” Journal of International Economics, 106: 37-54 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.010)
Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, H.M. (2017) “Oil prices and the global economy: is it different this time around?” Energy Economics, 65: 315-325 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.011)
Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2017) “China’s slowdown and global financial market volatility: is world growth losing out?” Emerging Markets Review, 31: 164-175 (DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2017.05.001)
Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M. and Weber, A. (2017) “Can Italy grow out of its NPL overhang? A panel threshold analysis.” Economics Letters, 159: 185-189 (DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2017.08.001)
Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2017) “Do sovereign wealth funds dampen the negative effects of commodity price volatility?” Journal of Commodity Markets, 8: 18-27 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2017.08.004)
Burney, N.A., Mohaddes, K., Alawadhi, A. and Al-Musallam, M. (2018) “The dynamics and determinants of Kuwait’s long-run economic growth.” Economic Modelling, 71: 289-304 (DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.12.018)
Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, H.M. and Raissi, M. (2018) “Rising public debt to GDP can harm economic growth.” Economic Letter (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), 13(3): 1-4
Alawadhi, A., Mohaddes, K., Burney, N.A. and Al-Khayat, A. (2018) “Kuwait’s macroeconomic performance in the global context.” Arab Journal of Administrative Sciences, 25(1): 93-119
Jarrett, U., Mohaddes, K. and Mohtadi, H. (2019) “Oil price volatility, financial institutions, and economic growth.” Energy Policy, 126: 131-144 (DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.068)
Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2019) “The US oil supply revolution and the global economy.” Empirical Economics, 57(5): 1515–1546 (DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1505-9)
Couharde, C., Damette, O., Generoso, R. and Mohaddes, K. (2020) “The growth effects of El Niño and La Niña: local weather conditions matter.” Annals of Economics and Statistics, 140: 83-126
Debnath, R., Darby, S., Bardhan, R., Mohaddes, K. and Sunikka-Blank, M. (2020) “Grounded reality meets machine learning: a deep-narrative analysis framework for energy policy research.” Energy Research and Social Science, 69: 2214-6296 (DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2020.101704)
Jibril, H., Chaudhuri, K. and Mohaddes, K. (2020) “Asymmetric oil prices and trade imbalances: does the source of the oil shock matter?” Energy Policy, 137: 111000 (DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111100)
Mohaddes, K. and Williams, R.J. (2020) “The adaptive investment effect: evidence from Chinese provinces.” Economics Letters, 193: 109332 (DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109332)
Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, H., Raissi, M. and Rebucci, A. (2021) “A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model.” Journal of International Money and Finance, 119: 102477 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102477)
Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2021) “Covid-19 fiscal support and its effectiveness.” Economics Letters, 205: 109939 (DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109939)
Debnath, R., Bardhan, R., Darby, S., Mohaddes, K., Sunikka-Blank, M., Cristina Villaça Coelho, A. and Isa, A. (2021) “Words against injustices: a deep narrative analysis of energy cultures in poverty of Abuja, Mumbai and Rio de Janeiro.” Energy Research and Social Science, 72: 101892 (DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2020.101892)
Flamini, A., Jahanshabi, B. and Mohaddes, K. (2021) “Illegal drugs and public corruption: crack based evidence from California.” European Journal of Political Economy, 69: 102005 (DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102005)
Generoso, R., Couharde, C., Damette, O. and Mohaddes, K. (2021) “The growth effects of El Niño and La Niña: local weather conditions matter.” Annals of Economics and Statistics, 140: 83-126 (DOI: 10.15609/annaeconstat2009.140.0083)
Kahn, M.E., Mohaddes, K., Ng, R.N.C., Pesaran, M.H., Raissi, M. and Yang, J.-C. (2021) “Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: a cross-country analysis.” Energy Economics, 104: 105624 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105624)
Debnath, R., Bardhan, R., Shah, D.U., Mohaddes, K., Ramage, M.H., Alvarez, R.M. and Sovacool, B.K. (2022) “Social media enables people-centric climate action in the hard-to-decarbonise building sector.” Scientific Reports, 12: 19017 (DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-23624-9)
Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M. and Sarangi, N. (2022) “Macroeconomic effects of global shocks in the GCC: evidence from Saudi Arabia.” Middle East Development Journal, 14(2): 219-239 (DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2144022)
Klusak, P., Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Kraemer, M. and Mohaddes, K. (2023) “Rising temperatures, falling ratings: the effect of climate change on sovereign creditworthiness.” Management Science (forthcoming)
Mohaddes, K., Ng, R.N.C., Pesaran, M.H., Raissi, M. and Yang, J.-C. (2023) “Climate change and economic activity: evidence from U.S. states.” Oxford Open Economics: odac010 (published online Nov 2022) (DOI: 10.1093/ooec/odac010) (forthcoming)
Books, monographs, reports & case studies
Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (2019) Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press (DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.001.0001)
Book chapters
Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, M.H. (2014) “One hundred years of oil income and the iranian economy: a curse or a blessing?” In: Alizadeh, P. and Hakimian, H. (eds.) Iran and the global economy: petro populism, Islam and economic sanctions. London: Routledge, pp.12-45
Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M., Elbadawi, I. and Selim, H. (2016) “The global impact of the systemic economies and MENA business cycles.” In: Elbadawi, I.A. and Selim, H. (eds.) Understanding and avoiding the oil curse in resource-rich Arab economies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp.16-43 (DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781316493854.003)
Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, H.M. and Raissi, M. (2016) “Long-run effects in large heterogeneous panel data models with cross-sectionally correlated errors.” In: Hill, R.C., Gonzalez-Rivera, G. and Lee, T.-H. (eds.) Advances in econometrics: vol.36: essays in honor of Aman Ullah. Bingley: Emerald Publishing, pp.85-135 (DOI: 10.1108/S0731-905320160000036013)
Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2016) “Does inflation slow long-run growth in India?” In: Anand, R. and Cashin, P. (eds.) Taming Indian inflation. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, pp.115-129
Chudik, A., Pesaran, M.H. and Mohaddes, K. (2019) “Identifying global and national output and fiscal policy shocks using a GVAR.” In: Pesaran, M.H., Li, T. and Terrell, D. (eds.) Advances in econometrics: vol.41: essays in honor of Cheng Hsiao. Bingley: Emerald Publishing (forthcoming)
Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (2019) “Objectives, issues and findings.” In: Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (eds.) Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.1-14 (DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0001)
El-Anshasy, A., Mohaddes, K. and Nugent, J.B. (2019) “Oil, volatility and institutions: cross-country evidence from major oil producers.” In: Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (eds.) Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.52-72 (DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0003)
Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (2019) “Reforming fiscal institutions in resource-rich Arab economies: policy proposals.” In: Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (eds.) Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.237-271 (DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0009)
Chudik, A., Pesaran, M.H. and Mohaddes, K. (2020) “Identifying global and national output and fiscal policy shocks using a GVAR.” In: Pesaran, M.H., Li, T. and Terrell, D. (eds.) Advances in econometrics: vol.41: essays in honor of Cheng Hsiao. Bingley: Emerald Publishing, pp.143-190
Working papers
Mohaddes, K. (2003) “Researching the graduate labour market: are the younger graduates on a lower growth path for their earnings compared with their older counterparts?” Warwick Institute for Employment Research (IER) Working Papers. Warwick: University of Warwick.
Leong, W. and Mohaddes, K. (2011) “Institutions and the volatility curse.” Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No.1145. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, M.H. and Raissi, M. (2019) “Debt, inflation and growth: robust estimation of long-run effects in dynamic panel data models.” Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Papers No.162. Dallas: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Flamini, A., Jahanshahi, B. and Mohaddes, K. (2018) “Illegal drugs and public corruption: crack based evidence from California.” Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No.1847. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
Kahn, M.E., Mohaddes, K., Ng, R.N.C., Pesaran, M.H., Raissi, M. and Yang, J.-C. (2019) “Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: a cross-country analysis.” Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No.1965. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
