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Kamiar Mohaddes

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Kamiar Mohaddes

Associate Professor in Economics & Policy
Fellow of King’s College

BSc (University of Warwick), MPhil, PhD (University of Cambridge)

Research interests

Macroeconomics; global and national macroeconometric modelling; energy economics; climate change; economics of the Middle East.

Subject group: Economics & Policy

Professional experience

Kamiar is Co-Director of the King’s Entrepreneurship Lab at King’s College, Cambridge. He is an Economic Research Forum (ERF) Research Fellow, and serves as its Thematic Co-Leader for the macroeconomics theme. He is also an Associate Researcher at the Energy Policy Research Group (EPRG) at the University of Cambridge, an Associate Fellow of the USC Dornsife Institute for New Economic Thinking, a Research Associate at the Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and a Research Associate at the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis at ANU in Australia.

His articles have been published in a number of edited volumes (Cambridge University Press, Oxford University Press, and Routledge) as well as in leading journals, including the Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of International Economics, and the Review of Economics and Statistics. His research has also been covered in major international news outlets including the BBC, Bloomberg, The Economist, the Financial Times, The New York Times, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post.

He is currently a consultant at the Asian Development Bank and has previously served as Departmental Special Advisor at the Bank of Canada, a consultant at the United Nations ESCWA, and has been a regular visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund. He has worked closely with colleagues at these institutions to, for instance, develop tools to help examine and disentangle the size and speed of the transmission of different global, regional, and national macroeconomic shocks. Kamiar has also worked on issues related to climate change and sustainability with a number of organisations including KPMG and RMS.

Previous appointments

Dr Kamiar Mohaddes was previously a Janeway Fellow in Economics at the Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

Selected publications

Here are a selection of Kamiar Mohaddes’ publications. Please see the “Selected publications” tab above for a more comprehensive list.

Kahn, M.E., Mohaddes, K., Ng, R.N.C., Pesaran, M.H., Raissi, M. and Yang, J.-C. (2021) “Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: a cross-country analysis.” Energy Economics (forthcoming)

Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (2019) Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press (DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.001.0001)

Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, H.M. and Raissi, M. (2017) “Is there a debt-threshold effect on output growth?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(1): 135-150 (DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00593)

Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2017) “Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño.” Journal of International Economics, 106: 37-54 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.010)

Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, M.H. (2016) “Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy: a counterfactual analysis.” Energy Economics, 59: 382-399 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.007)

Cavalcanti, T.V.D.V., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2015) “Commodity price volatility and the sources of growth.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30(6): 857-873 (DOI: 10.1002/jae.2407)

Journal articles

Cavalcanti, T.V.D.V., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2011) “Does oil abundance harm growth?” Applied Economics Letters, 18(12): 1181-1184 (DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2010.528356)

Cavalcanti, T.V.D.V., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2011) “Growth, development and natural resources: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis.” Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 51(4): 305-318 (DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2011.07.007)

Mohaddes, K. (2013) “Econometric modelling of world oil supplies: terminal price and the time to depletion.” OPEC Energy Review, 37(2): 162-193 (DOI: 10.1111/opec.12012)

Esfahani, H.S., Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, H. (2013) “Oil exports and the Iranian economy.” Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 53(3): 221-237 (DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2012.07.001)

Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2013) “Oil prices, external income, and growth: lessons from Jordan.” Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 9(2): 99-131 (DOI: 10.1515/rmeef-2012-0011)

Mohaddes, K. and Williams, O.H. (2014) “Inflation differentials in the GCC.” Middle East Development Journal, 5(2): 1350012-1-1350012-23 (DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500120)

Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M. and Raissi, M. (2014) “The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy.” Energy Economics, 44: 113-134 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.014)

Esfahani, H.S., Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, M.H. (2014) “An empirical growth model for major oil exporters.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 29(1): 1-21 (DOI: 10.1002/jae.2294)

Cavalcanti, T.V.D.V., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2015) “Commodity price volatility and the sources of growth.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30(6): 857-873 (DOI: 10.1002/jae.2407)

Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, M.H. (2016) “Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy: a counterfactual analysis.” Energy Economics, 59: 382-399 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.007)

Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2016) “El Niño: good boy or bad?” Finance and Development, 53(1): 30-33

Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, H.M. and Raissi, M. (2017) “Is there a debt-threshold effect on output growth?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(1): 135-150 (DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00593)

Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2017) “Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño.” Journal of International Economics, 106: 37-54 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.010)

Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, H.M. (2017) “Oil prices and the global economy: is it different this time around?” Energy Economics, 65: 315-325 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.011)

Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2017) “China’s slowdown and global financial market volatility: is world growth losing out?”  Emerging Markets Review, 31: 164-175 (DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2017.05.001)

Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M. and Weber, A. (2017) “Can Italy grow out of its NPL overhang? A panel threshold analysis.” Economics Letters, 159: 185-189 (DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2017.08.001)

Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2017) “Do sovereign wealth funds dampen the negative effects of commodity price volatility?” Journal of Commodity Markets, 8: 18-27 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2017.08.004)

Burney, N.A., Mohaddes, K., Alawadhi, A. and Al-Musallam, M. (2018) “The dynamics and determinants of Kuwait’s long-run economic growth.” Economic Modelling, 71: 289-304 (DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.12.018)

Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, H.M. and Raissi, M. (2018) “Rising public debt to GDP can harm economic growth.” Economic Letter (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), 13(3): 1-4

Alawadhi, A., Mohaddes, K., Burney, N.A. and Al-Khayat, A. (2018) “Kuwait’s macroeconomic performance in the global context.” Arab Journal of Administrative Sciences, 25(1): 93-119

Jarrett, U., Mohaddes, K. and Mohtadi, H. (2019) “Oil price volatility, financial institutions, and economic growth.” Energy Policy, 126: 131-144 (DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.068)

Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2019) “The US oil supply revolution and the global economy.” Empirical Economics, 57(5): 1515–1546 (DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1505-9)

Couharde, C., Damette, O., Generoso, R. and Mohaddes, K. (2020) “The growth effects of El Niño and La Niña: local weather conditions matter.” Annals of Economics and Statistics, 140: 83-126

Debnath, R., Darby, S., Bardhan, R., Mohaddes, K. and Sunikka-Blank, M. (2020) “Grounded reality meets machine learning: a deep-narrative analysis framework for energy policy research.” Energy Research and Social Science, 69: 2214-6296 (DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2020.101704)

Jibril, H., Chaudhuri, K. and Mohaddes, K. (2020) “Asymmetric oil prices and trade imbalances: does the source of the oil shock matter?” Energy Policy, 137: 111000 (DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111100)

Mohaddes, K. and Williams, R.J. (2020) “The adaptive investment effect: evidence from Chinese provinces.” Economics Letters, 193: 109332 (DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109332)

Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, H., Raissi, M. and Rebucci, A. (2021) “A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model.” Journal of International Money and Finance (forthcoming)

Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2021) “Covid-19 fiscal support and its effectiveness.” Economics Letters, 205: 109939 (DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109939)

Flamini, A., Jahanshabi, B. and Mohaddes, K. (2021) “Illegal drugs and public corruption: crack based evidence from California.” European Journal of Political Economy (DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102005) (published online Feb 2021)

Generoso, R., Couharde, C., Damette, O. and Mohaddes, K. (2021) “The growth effects of El Niño and La Niña: local weather conditions matter.” Annals of Economics and Statistics, 140: 83-126 (DOI: 10.15609/annaeconstat2009.140.0083)

Kahn, M.E., Mohaddes, K., Ng, R.N.C., Pesaran, M.H., Raissi, M. and Yang, J.-C. (2021) “Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: a cross-country analysis.” Energy Economics (forthcoming)

Books, monographs, reports & case studies

Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (2019) Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press (DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.001.0001)

Book chapters

Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, M.H. (2014) “One hundred years of oil income and the iranian economy: a curse or a blessing?” In: Alizadeh, P. and Hakimian, H. (eds.) Iran and the global economy: petro populism, Islam and economic sanctions. London: Routledge, pp.12-45

Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M., Elbadawi, I. and Selim, H. (2016) “The global impact of the systemic economies and MENA business cycles.” In: Elbadawi, I.A. and Selim, H. (eds.) Understanding and avoiding the oil curse in resource-rich Arab economies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp.16-43 (DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781316493854.003)

Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, H.M. and Raissi, M. (2016) “Long-run effects in large heterogeneous panel data models with cross-sectionally correlated errors.” In: Hill, R.C., Gonzalez-Rivera, G. and Lee, T.-H. (eds.) Advances in econometrics: vol.36: essays in honor of Aman Ullah. Bingley: Emerald Publishing, pp.85-135 (DOI: 10.1108/S0731-905320160000036013)

Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2016) “Does inflation slow long-run growth in India?” In: Anand, R. and Cashin, P. (eds.) Taming Indian inflation. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, pp.115-129

Chudik, A., Pesaran, M.H. and Mohaddes, K. (2019) “Identifying global and national output and fiscal policy shocks using a GVAR.” In: Pesaran, M.H., Li, T. and Terrell, D. (eds.) Advances in econometrics: vol.41: essays in honor of Cheng Hsiao. Bingley: Emerald Publishing (forthcoming)

Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (2019) “Objectives, issues and findings.” In: Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (eds.) Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.1-14 (DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0001)

El-Anshasy, A., Mohaddes, K. and Nugent, J.B. (2019) “Oil, volatility and institutions: cross-country evidence from major oil producers.” In: Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (eds.) Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.52-72 (DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0003)

Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (2019) “Reforming fiscal institutions in resource-rich Arab economies: policy proposals.” In: Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (eds.) Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.237-271 (DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0009)

Chudik, A., Pesaran, M.H. and Mohaddes, K. (2020) “Identifying global and national output and fiscal policy shocks using a GVAR.” In: Pesaran, M.H., Li, T. and Terrell, D. (eds.) Advances in econometrics: vol.41: essays in honor of Cheng Hsiao. Bingley: Emerald Publishing, pp.143-190

Working papers

Mohaddes, K. (2003) “Researching the graduate labour market: are the younger graduates on a lower growth path for their earnings compared with their older counterparts?” Warwick Institute for Employment Research (IER) Working Papers. Warwick: University of Warwick.

Leong, W. and Mohaddes, K. (2011) “Institutions and the volatility curse.” Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No.1145. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.

Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, M.H. and Raissi, M. (2019) “Debt, inflation and growth: robust estimation of long-run effects in dynamic panel data models.” Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Papers No.162. Dallas: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Flamini, A., Jahanshahi, B. and Mohaddes, K. (2018) “Illegal drugs and public corruption: crack based evidence from California.” Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No.1847. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.

Kahn, M.E., Mohaddes, K., Ng, R.N.C., Pesaran, M.H., Raissi, M. and Yang, J.-C. (2019) “Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: a cross-country analysis.” Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No.1965. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.

Collegiate entrepreneurship

New Entrepreneurship Lab at King's College, co-directed by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes and Dr Thomas Roulet of Cambridge Judge Business School, launches first…

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Crack findings

There is a causal link between illegal drugs and public corruption, finds a study co-authored by Kamiar Mohaddes of Cambridge Judge Business…

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Emissions and credit

The first 'climate smart' sovereign credit ratings suggest global warming downgrades as early as 2030, says team of economists including Dr Kamiar…

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Governmental response

Fiscal measures totaling $14 trillion have proved effective in mitigating the pandemic's economic effects including in emerging markets, says paper co-authored by…

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Looking at 2021

Cambridge Judge faculty talk about what to expect in 2021 in areas ranging from manufacturing to the workplace to the arts. Predictions…

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Top 15 reads of 2020

The news and insight section of Cambridge Judge Business School's website attracts audiences with eclectic interests ranging from business to healthcare to…

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COVID-19 economic impact

The coronavirus pandemic will likely reduce real world GDP by three per cent by the end of 2021 below pre-crisis predictions, says…

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Sustainability focus

The Cambridge Zero Climate Change Festival features experts including Kamiar Mohaddes and Khal Soufani of Cambridge Judge Business School. The Cambridge Zero…

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AI in energy policy

New paper co-authored by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes of Cambridge Judge Business School develops framework using artificial intelligence for better energy policy research…

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Online alumni festival

Eight faculty members from Cambridge Judge Business School to present at the 30th Alumni Festival of the University of Cambridge 17-26 September.…

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Slow recovery

Dr Kamiar Mohaddes says the pandemic's economic situation is 'really different' from past crises in that the combination of supply, demand, and…

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Double whammy

Health crisis from pandemic worsens economic issues in Middle East and Northern Africa, says Dr Kamiar Mohaddes. Dr Kamiar Mohaddes The health…

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Oil & economics

New book co-edited by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes of Cambridge Judge Business School says stronger institutions can help oil-rich Arab countries avoid the…

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The Washington Post: The costs of climate change are getting lost on Capitol Hill

A study on the long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change co-authored by Kamiar Mohaddes, Associate Professor in Economics & Policy at Cambridge…

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Bloomberg: A climate reckoning is coming for the world’s government debt

Further coverage of a study co-authored by Kamiar Mohaddes, Associate Professor in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, on the…

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Reuters: Analysis: Debt in a warm climate: coronavirus and carbon set scene for default

A study co-authored by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, is quoted in…

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Financial Times: The case for ‘truly-long-term’ debt ratings

Further coverage of research co-authored by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, on…

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The Telegraph: California’s heat dome poses unprecedented challenge for world’s fifth-biggest economy

Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, has spoken to The Telegraph about effects…

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Tejarat-e Farda: Kamiar Mohaddes talks about the state of the world economy after Covid-19

Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy, talks to Tejarat-e Farda, a major weekly magazine in Iran. Kamiar discusses…

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South China Morning Post: Why China has more to gain from fighting climate change than other countries

A further coverage for a study on climate change and credit ratings co-authored by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics…

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The New York Times: How debt and climate change pose ‘systemic risk’ to world economy

A study on climate change and credit ratings co-authored by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge…

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World Economic Forum: Study: Global warming could cut 63 countries’ credit ratings

A study co-authored at Cambridge Judge has predicted that “63 countries – roughly half the number rated by the likes of S&P…

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VoxEu.org: Rising temperatures, melting ratings

Enthusiasm for ‘greening the financial system’ is welcome, but does the explosion of ‘green’ finance indicators reflect the science? This column reports…

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Reuters: Global warming could cut over 60 countries’ credit ratings by 2030, study warns

A new study co-authored by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, predicts “that…

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Financial Times: AI can shine digital sunlight on to company greenwashing

A study on climate change and credit ratings co-authored by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge…

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The Guardian: UK, US and others face credit rating fall over CO2 emissions – study

Sovereign debt downgrades in store for many nations unless they act on climate crisis, says a team of researchers including Dr Kamiar…

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Financial Times: The shifting fronts in the battle over EU trade policy

A study on global Covid-19 fiscal measures co-authored by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge…

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Le Figaro: United Kingdom: tax increases to finance “whatever the cost”

Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy, comments on UK’s Budget in Le Figaro. “Despite vaccine rollout in advanced…

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Donya-e Eqtesad: Benefits of buying a vaccine

Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, talks implications of Covid-19 for Iran and…

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The Times of India: ‘What Covid-19 shows is that the global economy is not very resilient. Climate change could hit it severely’

An interview with Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, about Covid-19 economic impact.…

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Fox Business: Jeff Bezos spends almost $800M on Earth fund

A paper on the long-term economic losses associated with climate change by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy…

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Sohu: Slow post-pandemic recovery

"Under the raging epidemic, the supply, demand and confidence of the global market have been hit unprecedentedly, and the economic development situation…

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World Economic Forum: The economic consequences of Covid-19: Why no country is immune

An article the economic consequences of Covid-19 co-written by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge…

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Scientific American: Our planet, our choice

A study on on the macroeconomic effects of climate change co-authored by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy…

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Newsweek: Iran faces fourth crisis in oil crash amid U.S. sanctions, coronavirus and protests

Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, comments about the role of coronavirus, U.S.…

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Fox News: Extreme weather could cause a massive economic recession ‘like we’ve never seen before’

A study co-authored by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, is quoted in…

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ABC News: Are economists globally understating or overstating the cost of climate change?

Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, comments on his study on how global…

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CNBC: Developing economies reliant on agriculture are more exposed to climate risks

According to a study by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, an increase…

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Forbes: Innovating your way out of the resource curse

A new book “Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies" co-edited by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics &…

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CNBC: Climate change could shave off three per cent of the world economy, study finds

A joint study co-authored by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, estimates the…

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World Economic Forum: A ‘green interest rate?’ Fed digs into climate change economics

A study by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge, is featured in a WEF article…

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Scientific American: Warming will cost rich and poor countries alike

Further coverage of a study by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, shows…

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World Economic Forum: Climate change will shrink these economies fastest

According to a report co-authored by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge, seven per cent…

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The Telegraph: What does the oil price surge mean for the UK economy?

A study co-authored by Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, University Senior Lecturer in Economics & Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, is featured in…

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The Nation: The green new deal is cheaper than climate change

A new joint study on economic losses associated with climate change suggests that seven per cent of global GDP will disappear by 2100…

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Contact details

Kamiar Mohaddes
Cambridge Judge Business School
University of Cambridge
Trumpington Street
Cambridge CB2 1AG
UK

Tel: +44 (0)1223 766933

[email protected]

@KamiarMohaddes

Visit Kamiar’s website