Overview
This study introduces a machine learning approach to estimate emotional yields of collectibles.
Using 110 years of data, it shows most collectibles earn positive emotional returns (~2.5% annually), which lower their equilibrium financial returns.
Project researchers
Elroy Dimson
Emeritus Professor of Finance, London Business School
Kuntara Pukthuanthong
Robert Trulaske Jr. Professor of Finance, Trulaske College of Business University of Missouri
Blair Vorsatz
Research summary
Researchers propose a novel method to estimate emotional yields of collectibles based on factor-mimicking portfolios. Using up to 110 years of collectibles returns for 13 distinct asset classes, we apply machine learning techniques to address challenges from non-synchronous trading. We use these estimates to study how emotional yields affect equilibrium pricing. Emotional yield estimates for 24 of our 30 collectibles return series are positive, with an annualised mean (median) of 2.64% (2.53%). Despite various forms of underestimation, these results provide evidence that assets with positive emotional returns have lower equilibrium financial returns.
Related paper
Elroy Dimson, Kuntara Pukthuanthong and Blair Vorsatz, ‘Emotional Yields of Collectibles’ (2026) 82 Financial Analysts Journal 19. https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198X.2026.2639952
