Financial history

Overview

Research in this theme uses financial history to illuminate contemporary questions in investment and corporate finance. Projects examine the evolution of financial markets, the investment record of John Maynard Keynes, the development of Indian equity markets since 1900, and the emergence of corporate credit rating agencies. By drawing on archival sources, long‑run datasets and historical case studies, the work shows how past crises, innovations and policy choices have shaped today’s institutions and market practices. Together, these projects demonstrate how historical analysis can deepen our understanding of risk, return and market development. 

Financial history.

Projects

History of financial markets

Studies of financial market history analyse the long‑term performance of asset classes, market bubbles and the role of regulation.

Keynes

The Keynes project reconstructs his portfolio decisions as an investor and asset allocator, offering lessons for modern fund management.

Indian equity returns since 1900

Research on Indian equities provides new evidence from non‑US markets, documenting long‑run returns since 1909, positive real premia, post‑1991 rerating, and similar historical performance for investors accessing both London and Bombay listings.

News and insights

CEPR Discussion Paper No 21402 on long-run performance and evolution of Indian equity markets

The blog post highlights the history of Indian equity markets from 1900 onwards, showing that equities delivered strong long-run real returns, with dividends driving performance until economic reforms in the 1990s transformed market valuations and growth.

Read the full CEPR Discussion Paper No 21402 by David Chambers, Maanik Nath, Elias Ohneberg, and Luisa Bicalho Ritzkat on long-run performance and evolution of Indian equity markets.

Prize-winning Keynes article

An article by David Chambers and Elroy Dimson of Cambridge Judge Business School on how British economist John Maynard Keynes influenced the management of US college endowments was awarded the Graham and Dodd Best Perspectives Award for 2015 by the Financial Analysts Journal.

Investing in 2013? Ask John Maynard Keynes

Economist John Maynard Keynes ran the endowment fund at King’s College from 1921 until his death in 1946. His highly successful approach is providing valuable insight for today’s investors. The first in-depth analysis of Keynes’ investment career, co-authored by Cambridge Judge Business School finance scholars David Chambers and Elroy Dimson, has shed new light on Keynes’ beliefs and approach and is providing valuable insight for today’s investment practitioners.

How did Keynes perform as an investor?

John Maynard Keynes is best known as an economist, and his ideas have done much to shape modern economic thought and policies. But there’s a side of Keynes that doesn’t get as much attention as his economic genius: He was an active investor, with an investment philosophy that evolved considerably through trial and error. David Chambers talked with Barbara Petitt, CFA, head of journal publications at CFA Institute.

Art as an Asset, Keynes the Collector

Art market returns have previously been inferred from equally-weighted price indexes. By contrast a paper by Dr David Chambers and Professor Elroy Dimson examines the returns from art portfolios.

If You're So Smart: John Maynard Keynes and Currency Speculation in the Interwar Years

This paper explores the risks and returns to currency speculation during the 1920s and 1930s. We study the performance of 2 well-known technical trading strategies (carry and momentum) and compare them with that of a fundamentals-based trader: John Maynard Keynes.

Media coverage

Forbes | 22 January 2016

Why currency trading is a bad idea: Keynes

John Maynard Keynes struggled as a foreign-exchange trader, finds the first detailed study of the famous economist as currency speculator. “If someone as economically literate and well-connected as Keynes found it difficult to time currencies, then the rest of us should think twice before believing we can do any better,” says co-author David Chambers, Reader in Finance and an Academic Director of the Newton Centre for Endowment Asset Management (CEAM) at Cambridge Judge Business School.

Bloomberg View | 15 January 2016

FX traders, take heart: even Keynes lost his shirt

John Maynard Keynes struggled as a foreign-exchange trader, finds the first detailed study of the famous economist as currency speculator. “If someone as economically literate and well-connected as Keynes found it difficult to time currencies, then the rest of us should think twice before believing we can do any better,” says co-author David Chambers, Reader in Finance and an Academic Director of the Newton Centre for Endowment Asset Management (CEAM) at Cambridge Judge Business School.

The Times | 13 January 2016

Big Short put Keynes on the brink of bankruptcy

John Maynard Keynes was ‘a financial genius whose ideas dominated western economic policy making for 50 years’, writes Patrick Hosking in The Times. But it’s little know that Keynes was also trading in foreign currency. The latest study co-authored by David Chambers, Reader in Finance and Academic Director of the Newton Centre for Endowment Asset Management at Cambridge Judge, found that Keynes struggled as a foreign-exchange trader.

The Guardian | 12 January 2016

John Maynard Keynes ‘a great economist but poor currency trader’

A study co-authored by Elroy Dimson, Research Director (Finance) and Chairman of the Centre for Endowment Asset Management (CEAM) at Cambridge Judge Business School, is mentioned in this article about small-cap stocks.

Financial Times | 5 September 2014

How to see into the future

“John Maynard Keynes’s track record over a quarter century running the discretionary portfolio of King’s College Cambridge was excellent, outperforming market benchmarks by an average of six percentage points a year, an impressive margin.” David Chambers, University Lecturer in Finance, and Elroy Dimson, Research Director (Finance & Accounting), at Cambridge Judge Business School, discuss their study.

Financial Advisor | 2 June 2014

Keynes’ way to wealth

John Wasik investigates why John Maynard Keynes is one of the most important economists in history and refers to research by David Chambers, Director of the CJBS Centre for Endowment Asset Management and Elroy Dimson, Co-Director of the Centre for Endowment Asset Management (CEAM).

New York Times | 10 February 2014

John Maynard Keynes’ own portfolio not too dismal

Reporter John Wasik investigates influential economist John Maynard Keynes’s approach to investing in research by David Chambers, Director of the CJBS Centre for Endowment Asset Management and Elroy Dimson, Co-Director of CEAM.

The Daily Telegraph | 26 October 2013

How to invest like… J. Maynard Keynes

The influential economist also happened to deliver annual returns of 15pc in a timespan covering the Wall Street Crash and the Second World War, writes Andrew Oxlade. In a newly published study of Keynes’s investments for King’s College, Cambridge, Dr David Chambers, university lecturer in Finance, and Professor Elroy Dimson, research director in Finance and Accounting of Cambridge’s Judge Business School, acknowledges Keynes’s idiosyncratic style.

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