Investing over the long term

Overview

Research under this theme examines how financial markets behave over decades rather than years, and what this means for long‑horizon investors.  

Using rich historical datasets on US endowment funds, global investment returns and long‑run asset performance, the projects explore how different institutions allocate capital, how risk premia evolve, and how portfolios can be designed to withstand changing economic regimes. Together, these projects provide an evidence base for investors seeking to make robust, long‑term decisions. 

Investing over long term.

Projects

US endowment funds

The work on US endowment funds analyses nearly a century of experience to understand the role of governance, peer effects and innovation in asset allocation.

Global investment returns

Global investment returns research provides a comprehensive record of long‑term performance across countries and asset classes.

Models of long-horizon investing

Models of long‑horizon investing studies provide insight into how leading asset owners navigate crises, design endowment strategies, use real estate in portfolios, and apply the Norway model to build resilient, responsible long‑term investment programmes.

Corporate bonds and the credit premium

This project analyses long‑run US and UK corporate bond data since the 1860s, showing a persistent credit risk premium over governments and demonstrating that yield spreads overstate expected excess returns.

Long-run asset returns

This project reviews evidence on long‑run asset returns, quantifies historical risk premia across major asset classes, assesses the strengths and weaknesses of long-horizon datasets, and outlines best practices and priorities for future research.

News and insights

While investors often associate hot new technologies with bubbles and periods of subsequent underperformance, long-term market trends show that new technologies do not always generate bubbles and bubbles do not necessarily imply weak long-term returns.

As financial players debate the wisdom of AI investment, a report on long-term market trends co-authored by Professor Elroy Dimson of Cambridge Judge Business School provides a timely reminder: investors should shun neither new nor old industries, and new tech doesn’t always produce bubbles waiting to burst.

Financial buildings in London.

Professor Elroy Dimson has for decades boosted our historical understanding of financial markets. He reflects on how he became hooked on financial data through an early sojourn into the corporate world, how markets history may judge artificial intelligence, and how his family’s wine business resonated in his research into collectibles.

Stock market returns in the first quarter of the 21st century have been lower than over the 20th century, though global equity investors over the past 25 years still saw annualised real returns of 3.5% and an equity risk premium relative to bills of 4.3%, says an annual historical markets report co-authored by Elroy Dimson of Cambridge Judge Business School.

Stock market returns have been lower in the first quarter of the 21st century than the 20th century, but still had annualised real returns of 3.5%, says report co-authored by Professor Elroy Dimson.

A business man walks outside the New York stock exchange in New York City.

Annual UBS Investment Returns Yearbook, co-authored by Professor Elroy Dimson of Cambridge Judge Business School, finds that Japan, Canada, Germany, Australia and other nations have lost stock market share to the US.

A man leans back and looks up at a large percentage sign that casts its shadow and towers above him.

Inflation hit decades-long highs in 2022, and easing is historically very slow from such levels, says new report co-authored by Elroy Dimson of Cambridge Judge Business School.

Illustration of a bull and a bear in face masks with stockmarket symbols and the coronavirus around them.

Misc news

Long-term returns

Following high returns in the 1980s and 1990s, real equity returns have since been below historical averages despite pandemic recovery, says Credit Suisse Yearbook co-authored by Professor Elroy Dimson from Cambridge Judge Business School.

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Faculty news

Investment yearbook

The annual Global Investment Returns Yearbook, co-authored by Professor Elroy Dimson of Cambridge Judge, finds that 2018 was the worst year for global equity returns since the financial crisis, while investors in Chinese stocks have received no premium despite the country's economic growth.

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