Emeritus Reader in Policy Modelling
Fellow of Clare Hall
BA (University of Oxford), MA, PhD (University of Cambridge)
My research focuses on numerical information in public policy; policy analysis of the greenhouse effect; and the integrated assessment modelling of climate change.
News and insights
The COVID-19 death rate is higher in European countries with a low flu intensity since 2018, says a working paper by Chris Hope of Cambridge Judge Business School. The death rate from COVID-19 (coronavirus) in Europe appears to be linked to low-intensity flu seasons in the past two years as the same people are vulnerable, says a working paper by Dr Chris Hope, Emeritus Reader in Policy Modelling at Cambridge Judge Business School. Although the working paper is "very much a first attempt to investigate any link between the COVID-19 death rate and flu intensity," the results do find a "significant negative correlation" between lower flu intensity and higher death rates from coronavirus – showing that more COVID-19 deaths have occurred where there have been fewer flu deaths the past two seasons. "The paper does not seek to make judgments about whether individuals were fortunate or unfortunate with regard to flu or coronavirus, or to evaluate governments' response to either illness," says author Chris Hope. "It simply reports my initial statistical findings as a policy modeller regarding the apparent statistical relationship between flu-season severity and COVID-19 deaths. The correlation with flu intensity can't explain everything, or even most of the…
An alternative idea to social distancing from policy modeller Dr Chris Hope. A new working paper by Dr Chris Hope, Emeritus Reader in Policy Modelling at Cambridge Judge Business School, suggests an alternative that could be offered to social distancing measures under the current coronavirus lockdown: "voluntary exposure" in which healthy people can choose to be infected and confined to their homes until no longer infectious. Currently, most people do not know if they are infected until they show symptoms, and they can, therefore, pass the infection on to other people in shops or the street while unknowingly infected. Under a "voluntary exposure" approach, people who choose to be immediately infected with COVID-19 (coronavirus) and then stay in their homes until no longer infectious "would then be able to resume something closer to normal life, once sufficient numbers were immune and the government allowed it," Chris writes in a blog post summarising the working paper. People at high risk or with pre-existing conditions would not be offered such voluntary exposure, or presumably not take it up if offered. He emphasises that the working paper posted on the Cambridge Judge Business School website is a "first analysis" of this new idea,…
The current tennis scoring system – point-game-set-match rather The scoring system used in tennis – point-game-set-match rather than total points as in basketball – significantly improves the chances of an underdog winning a match at the upcoming Wimbledon championships, according to a novel scoring model developed by a University of Cambridge academic known globally for his climate change model. "Tennis has a weird scoring system," says Dr Chris Hope, Reader in Policy Modelling at Cambridge Judge Business School, in a blog post announcing his findings. "This leads to lots of excitement, as mini-dramas unfold near the end of many games and sets. But it can also lead to unfair results." Hope, whose PAGE (Policy Analysis for the Greenhouse Effect) model on greenhouse gas emissions has been used extensively by the US Environmental Protection Agency and other official bodies, turned his modelling expertise to tennis in advance of this year's Wimbledon, which begins on Monday 2 July 2018. Hope previously produced a model on top-flight English soccer for a research paper entitled "When should you sack a football manager: Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership". Hope’s PAGE model estimates the social cost of carbon dioxide to "help…
The Guardian | 6 September 2021
A study co-authored by Dr Chris Hope, Emeritus Reader in Policy Modelling at Cambridge Judge Business School, is quoted in the article. The study suggests the economic cost of climate change could be six times higher than previously thought. “For every tonne of carbon dioxide emitted, the global economy would be $3,000 worse off by the end of the century,” the researchers estimated.
An initial investigation by Dr Chris Hope, Emeritus Reader in Policy Modelling at Cambridge Judge Business School, shows there could be a link between the COVID-19 death rate and flu intensity. “The paper does not seek to make judgments about whether individuals were fortunate or unfortunate with regard to flu or coronavirus, or to evaluate governments’ response to either illness,” Dr Hope says. “It simply reports my initial statistical findings as a policy modeller regarding the apparent statistical relationship between flu-season severity and COVID-19 deaths.”
Dr Chris Hope from Cambridge Judge Business School people could opt for ‘voluntary exposure’ to coronavirus and would then be able to “resume something closer to normal life, once sufficient numbers were immune and the government allowed it.” People at high risk or with pre-existing conditions would not be offered such voluntary exposure, or presumably not take it up if offered.
Mirror, 29 April 2020
Brits ‘should be allowed to volunteer to be infected with coronavirus’
Science, 20 September 2019
The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C
Scienmag, 23 April 2019
Arctic warming will accelerate climate change and impact global economy
BBC, 26 July 2018
Feeling the heat
BBC, 24 July 2018
The Quint, 9 July 2018
Is tennis’ scoring system helping underdogs?
BBC World Service, 30 June 2018
New Scientist, 28 June 2018
How the weird scoring system in tennis gives underdog a boost