More than 1.7 million satellites are now proposed in filings with the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC), including roughly one million by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, says the technical policy brief for the FCC and international regulators, titled Crowded Orbits, Fading Skies: A Policy Framework for Satellite Mega-Constellations.
Such “unmanaged growth” poses huge policy issues according to “a growing, methodologically independent body of peer-reviewed research, spanning ground-based astronomy, space-based astronomy, empirical archival analysis and atmospheric chemistry,” says Arjuna’s paper.
Regulatory environment was developed for much smaller low-Earth orbit population
The paper notes that low-Earth orbit has moved within a decade “from a comparatively sparse operational environment to one approaching saturation at certain altitudes”, adding that this trajectory sits inside a space economy that the World Economic Forum in partnership with McKinsey & Company forecasts will grow from around $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2035.
“The commercial logic driving this growth (cheaper launch, falling satellite unit costs, and new demand sources such as orbital compute) is not in question. What is in question, and what this paper addresses, is whether the regulatory and international-governance architecture built for an earlier, much smaller orbital population is adequate to manage the externalities of its next order-of-magnitude expansion: light pollution and loss of astronomical capability, disruption to circadian biology and nocturnal ecosystems, orbital debris and collision risk, and atmospheric effects from launch and re-entry.
What can regulators do? Recommendations from the research
The paper includes a set of policy options and recommendations for regulators and other policymakers over the next 12 to 24 months including adoption by the FCC of a cumulative, cross-operator ceiling that links total satellite population to brightness rather than treating them as separable licensing criteria, and pursuit by regulators and the astronomical community of an international brightness and debris standard through the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS).
Space Economy Initiative
The Space Economy Initiative within the Centre for India and Global Business at Cambridge Business School brings together researchers across engineering, economics, governance and policy to make space activity more accessible – particularly for emerging economies and public-interest missions.
Related content
Sathiaseelan, A. (2026) Crowded orbits, fading skies: a policy framework for satellite mega-constellations. A technical policy brief for FCC and international regulators.
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