Emerging Risk Scenarios for Risk Management
20 Mar 2014
Time to be confirmed
Open to: select audiences
Cambridge Judge Business School
Trumpington St
Cambridge
CB2 1AG
United Kingdom
Overview
Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies has a research theme dedicated to understanding and managing emerging risks.
Over the past several years this has entailed developing a taxonomy of emerging systemic risks, the compilation of a compendium of information about a selection of threats, and reviews of management strategies to deal with emerging risks. During the past year, a number of emerging risks have been explored through the development of extreme scenarios to use as stress tests in business risk management, for risks such as cyber catastrophe, pandemics, geopolitical conflicts and civil disorder. Risk Centre research examines the consequences of the scenarios in terms of types and levels of physical loss, the macroeconomic impacts, and potential effects on investment portfolios.
This seminar presented these and other scenarios and considered best practice for the business management of emerging risks. The seminar was attended by practitioners from a range of industries, policy-makers, and academics from a broad set of disciplines.
Meeting partner
Programme
09:30 – 09:45
Welcome and Seminar Objectives
Professor Daniel Ralph, Academic Director, Centre for Risk Studies
Download slides (pdf, 883KB)
09:45 – 10:15
Emerging Systemic Risks – Threats and Opportunities
Dr Andrew Coburn, Director of the External Advisory Board, Centre for Risk Studies
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10:15 – 11:30
Scenario 1: A Geopolitical Conflict – ‘China-Japan Conflict’
Subject Matter Specialist: Joshua Wallace, Cytora
Project Lead: Dr Gary Bowman, Research Associate, Centre for Risk Studies
Download slides (pdf, 3.81MB)
11:30 – 13:30
Panel Discussion 1 – Good Practice for Managing Emerging Risks
Chair: Trevor Maynard, Head of Exposure Management and Reinsurance, Lloyd’s
- Rowan Douglas Managing Director Willis Analytics, Willis
- Dr Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Research Officer, RMS
- John Scott, Chief Risk Officer, Zurich Global Corporate, Zurich Insurance Group
- Dr Markus Wadé, Senior Risk Manager, Integrated Risk Management, Munich Re
Download slides (pdf, 2.56MB)
13:30 – 14:15
Scenario 2: A Cyber Catastrophe – ‘The Sybil Logic Bomb’
Subject Matter Specialist: Éireann Leverett, IOActive
Project Lead: Simon Ruffle, Director of Technology Research, Centre for Risk Studies
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14:15 – 14:45
Ask the Audience
Professor Daniel Ralph, Academic Director, Centre for Risk Studies
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14:45 – 16:00
Scenario 3: A Human Pandemic – ‘Sao Paolo Virus Pandemic’
Subject Matter Specialist: Mary Chang, RMS
Project Lead: Dr Andrew Coburn, Director of the External Advisory Board, Centre for Risk Studies
Download slides (pdf, 3MB)
16:00 – 16:30
Assessing the Macroeconomic Implications of Emerging Risks
Professor Gabriel Stein, Director, Asset Management Services, Oxford Economics
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16:30 – 17:30
Panel Discussion 2 – Preparing for Emerging Risks
Chair: Alan Laubsch, Director & Head of Risk Products, Financial Networks Analytics
- Jeremy Hindle, Head of Enterprise Risk Aggregation, XL
- Jonathan Clark, Head of Business Solutions & Syndicate Claims Management and Member of SCOR Emerging
- Risks Groups for P&C claims, SCOR SE
- Kay Haggis, Group Head of Operational Risk and Head of Catlin Emerging Risk Committee, Catlin
- Matt Harrison, Syndicate Exposure Manager, Hiscox
Download slides (pdf, 211KB)
Guest speakers
- Professor Gabriel Stein, Director, Asset Management Services, Oxford Economics and Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London
- Mary Chang, Medical Research Analyst, RMS
- Éireann Leverett, Senior Security Consultant, IOActive
- Joshua Wallace, Co-Founder, Cytora
Panel 1 – Strategy: What Approaches Should Businesses & Society Be Taking to the Threat of Emerging Risks?
Chair
- Trevor Maynard, Head of Exposure Management and Reinsurance, Lloyds
Panellists
- Rowan Douglas, CEO, Capital, Science & Policy Practice and Chairman, Willis Research Network, Willis Group
- Dr Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Research Officer, RMS
- John Scott, Chief Risk Officer, Zurich Global Corporate, Zurich Insurance Group
- Dr Markus Wadé, Senior Risk Manager, Integrated Risk Management, Munich Re
Panel 2 – Response: How Should a Business Monitor Emerging Risks & Manage Their Occurrence?
Chair
- Alan Laubsch, Director and Head of Risk Products, Financial Networks Analytics
Panellists
- Jonathan Clark, Head of Business Solutions & Syndicate Claims Management and Member of SCOR Emerging Risks Groups for P&C Claims, SCOR SE
- Kay Haggis, Group Head of Operational Risk and Head of Catlin Emerging Risk Committee for Operational Risk, Catlin
- Matt Harrison, Syndicate Exposure Manager, Hiscox
- Jeremy Hindle, Head of Enterprise Risk Aggregation, XL
Photo gallery
Media coverage
Lloyds.com | 25 March 2014
“Cassandras and catastronomics”, Lloyds.com
“The complex concept of ‘catastronomics’ – how diverse multi-trillion dollar catastrophic scenarios could impact the economy – was under the microscope at a University of Cambridge seminar earlier this month. Hosted by the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, risk professionals from insurance, academia and industry came together at the university’s Judge Business School to examine the potential effect of certain unlikely but realistic scenarios … ”