Impact analysis conducted in the wake of the November 2015 Paris Attacks, based on contemporary modelling done by the Centre for Risk Studies. An October 2016 revision examines the real-world economic damage and changing threat landscape in the West.
A framework for systemic assessment of macro-catastrophes, including a taxonomy of macro-catastrophe threats that have the potential to cause damage and disruption to social and economic systems in the modern globalised world.
The 2019 update of the Cambridge Global Risk Index. The Global Risk Index compiles the impacts of 22 types of threats into a single, annual measurement of economic loss. Cyber risk has seen a rise from seventh to sixth place among global threats in this year’s Index.
This is the 2018 update of the Cambridge Global Risk Index. The Global Risk Index compiles the impacts of 22 types of threats into a single, annual measurement of economic loss. Interstate conflict, belong to the geopolitical and security threat class, is the only risk of the 22 that has increased systemically between 2017 and 2018.
This working paper documents the methodology used for the Cambridge Global Risk Index 2018 Executive Summary analysis. It describes how cities were selected, GDP projections, and the updated resilience ratings. It outlines the Catastronomics methodology and how GDP@Risk is calculated.
2017 launch of the Cambridge Global Risk Index, which analyses the exposure to shocks of the global economy against a calculated baseline and provides an overview of risk for the world’s economy for the next 10 years.
This report explores the rapidly changing cyber landscape, presenting the Centre’s latest research on cyber risk including shifting trends in the risk landscape, management of emerging cyber threats, trends in cyber loss processes, and the current and future state of cyber insurance markets.
A framework for classifying cyber threat, and compiled a database of significant past attacks, to inform evolving business risk. We examine approaches to measuring vulnerabilities to attacks and industry sector and geographic variations.
In this report’s scenario, the ransomware attack is launched through an infected email, which once opened is forwarded to all contacts and within 24 hours encrypts all data on 30 million devices worldwide.
A ‘contingency’ scenario for the economic impact of possible Ebola outbreaks in the United States and Europe, based on upper bounds of published epidemiological projections from the West Africa epidemic of 2014. This scenario is of fered as a contribution to improving business resilience.
Catastrophe stress test of risks posed by a plausible but extreme financial catastrophe. The sudden exit of Italy from the Eurozone triggers a cascade of sovereign debt defaults in vulnerable European states.
A review of the drivers of wars between nation states in the wider context of the balance of power within the international system. This covers three main strands: political ambitions, economic motives and ideological differences.
Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme global property crash financial catastrophe. A sudden loss of confidence in the boom markets of South East Asia triggers a housing market collapse that impacts mortgage and non-mortgage assets worldwide.
Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme space weather event. This explores of the economic and business impacts of a significant geomagnetic disturbance that destroys electricity grid infrastructure (extra high voltage transformers) in the Northern hemisphere.
Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme financial catastrophe. Ecological and political pressures lead to a sudden shock to global food and oil supplies causing prices to spiral uncontrollably worldwide.
A review of human pandemics: infectious disease outbreaks that spread internationally and cause death and illness in human populations, including influenza pandemics, emerging infectious diseases and re-emergent disease epidemics.
Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme cyber attack against the UK power distribution system in the Southeast, causing rolling and unpredictable power outages in and around London.
Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme social uprising, fueled by youth unemployment. This captures the changing nature of social unrest informed by the Arab Spring and Occupy Wall Street.
Consultation document V0.9 on the Phase One classes of insurance: marine, aviation, energy and casualty. This document populates the core dictionaries associated with each schema and builds upon the feedback received from the V0.5 consultation document. We welcome feedback from the wider community as we continue to develop the schema.
Consultation document V0.5 of the initial document. This update focuses on marine, aviation, energy and casualty classes of insurance. The document outlines the core dictionaries associated with each schema. We hope to collect feedback from the wider community as we continue to populate and develop the schema.
This consultation document builds on the V0.1 research, and focuses on agriculture, trade credit, surety, specialised underwriting classes, life and health. The document outlines the core dictionaries associated with each schema. We hope to collect feedback from the wider community as we continue to populate and develop the schema.
As part of the Cambridge Global Risk Framework, this report considers the risks that cities face, how city risks relate to insurance penetration levels, and how insurance products can be aligned with city risk profiles and identify insurance growth opportunities.
This report explores the controls on natural disaster recovery through detailed analysis of global disaster case studies. It aims to understand the role of insurance in affecting recovery outcomes and building resilience.
This report is produced as part of the Centre’s research track on corporate risk profiling. The focus and intention of this report is to better understand the perspectives and practices of risk management at global corporations.
The report presents an alternative model to help insurers understand the ‘tail risk’ of potential losses they might experience in their marine portfolio. This analysis helps marine underwriters improve their estimation of the capital they need to support this important line of insurance business.
Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme cyber event that quantifies systemic risk of commercial digital infrastructure. Identifies “Systemically Important Technology Enterprises”, SITEs, as key to understanding systemic cyber vulnerability.
Main report providing an overview of the World City Risk 2025 analysis and key results. It describes the outline methodology and key principles, results and conclusions, validation and comparison with other studies, and some sensitivity studies for mitigating risk and potential for climate change to increase catastrophe risk.
This working paper documents the methodology used for the World City Risk 2025 analysis. It describes how cities were selected, GDP projections, and vulnerability and resilience assessed. It outlines the Catastronomics methodology and how the risk atlas was compiled.