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Title & description Year Publication theme Download as PDF
A Risk Analysis Retrospective on the 2015 Paris Attacks

Impact analysis conducted in the wake of the November 2015 Paris Attacks, based on contemporary modelling done by the Centre for Risk Studies. An October 2016 revision examines the real-world economic damage and changing threat landscape in the West.
2016 Geopolitics and Security Download
A Taxonomy of Threats for Complex Risk Management

A framework for systemic assessment of macro-catastrophes, including a taxonomy of macro-catastrophe threats that have the potential to cause damage and disruption to social and economic systems in the modern globalised world.
2014 Multi-threat Download
Cambridge Global Risk Outlook for 2017

2017 launch of the Cambridge Global Risk Index, which analyses the exposure to shocks of the global economy against a calculated baseline and provides an overview of risk for the world's economy for the next 10 years.
2017 Multi-threat Download
China-Japan Conflict Stress Test Scenario

A catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme conflict in Southeast Asia for use in business and policy-making.
2014 Geopolitics and Security Download
CRS RMS Cyber Risk Landscape 2017

The cyber risk landscape is changing rapidly. We summarise the latest trends and outlooks for cyber risk in information technology systems and cyber-physical attacks.
2017 Space and Technology Download
Cyber Exposure Data Schema (v1.0)

Published as a standard data schema for managing cyber exposures, incorporating feedback from previous consultation rounds and acknowledgements of contributors.
2016 Space and Technology Download
Cyber Exposure Data Schema (v0.9)

Third consultation document for the development of a standard data schema for managing cyber exposures, incorporating feedback from previous consultation rounds.
2015 Space and Technology Download
Cyber Exposure Data Schema (v0.5)

Second consultation document to develop a standard data schema for managing cyber exposures. Includes market practice review.
2015 Space and Technology Download
Cyber Exposure Data Schema (v0.1) Principles

First consultation document on the principles for developing a standard data schema for managing cyber exposures.
2015 Space and Technology Download
Cyber Risk Outlook 2018

This report explores the rapidly changing cyber landscape, presenting the Centre’s latest research on cyber risk including shifting trends in the risk landscape, management of emerging cyber threats, trends in cyber loss processes, and the current and future state of cyber insurance markets.
2018 Space and Technology Download
Cyber Terrorism: Assessment of the Threat to Insurance

An assessment of the current status and future shape of the cyber terrorist threat to the UK Mainland and economy.
2017 Geopolitics and Security Download
Cyber Threat Monograph

A framework for classifying cyber threat, and compiled a database of significant past attacks, to inform evolving business risk. We examine approaches to measuring vulnerabilities to attacks and industry sector and geographic variations.
2013 Space and Technology Download
Dollar Deposed Financial Catastrophe Stress Test

Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme financial catastrophe. This scenario sees the rapid development of the Chinese domestic economy destabilizes the value of the dollar.
2015 Finance, Economics and Trade Download
Ebola Contingency Scenario

A 'contingency' scenario for the economic impact of possible Ebola outbreaks in the United States and Europe, based on upper bounds of published epidemiological projections from the West Africa epidemic of 2014. This scenario is of fered as a contribution to improving business resilience.
2014 Health and Humanity Download
Eurozone Meltdown Financial Catastrophe Street Test

Catastrophe stress test of risks posed by a plausible but extreme financial catastrophe. The sudden exit of Italy from the Eurozone triggers a cascade of sovereign debt defaults in vulnerable European states.
2015 Finance, Economics and Trade Download
Freeze

This document presents a profile of the macro-catastrophe threat type 'Freeze'.
2012 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Download
Geopolitical Conflict Threat Monograph

A review of the drivers of wars between nation states in the wider context of the balance of power within the international system. This covers three main strands: political ambitions, economic motives and ideological differences.
2013 Geopolitics and Security Download
Global Property Crash Stress Test Scenario

Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme global property crash financial catastrophe. A sudden loss of confidence in the boom markets of South East Asia triggers a housing market collapse that impacts mortgage and non-mortgage assets worldwide.
2015 Finance, Economics and Trade Download
Helios Solar Storm Scenario

Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme space weather event. This explores of the economic and business impacts of a significant geomagnetic disturbance that destroys electricity grid infrastructure (extra high voltage transformers) in the Northern hemisphere.
2016 Space and Technology Download
High Inflation World Financial Catastrophe Stress Test

Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme financial catastrophe. Ecological and political pressures lead to a sudden shock to global food and oil supplies causing prices to spiral uncontrollably worldwide.
2015 Finance, Economics and Trade Download
Human Pandemic Threat Monograph

A review of human pandemics: infectious disease outbreaks that spread internationally and cause death and illness in human populations, including influenza pandemics, emerging infectious diseases and re-emergent disease epidemics.
2013 Health and Humanity Download
Impacts of Severe Natural Catastrophes on Financial Markets

This report explores the potential for very large natural catastrophes to trigger market shocks and subsequent economic downturns that have an impact on an insurance company’s balance sheet.
2018 Natural catastrophe and climate Download
Integrated Infrastructure: Cyber Resiliency in Society

Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme cyber attack against the UK power distribution system in the Southeast, causing rolling and unpredictable power outages in and around London.
2016 Space and Technology Download
Lloyd's Business Blackout Scenario

Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme cyber attack on the US electricity grid causing a major power outage in the Northeastern United States, for Lloyd's.
2015 Space and Technology Download
Lloyd’s City Risk Index 2018

This is the 2018 update of the Cambridge Global Risk Index. The Global Risk Index compiles the impacts of 22 types of threats into a single, annual measurement of economic loss. Interstate conflict, belong to the geopolitical and security threat class, is the only risk of the 22 that has increased systemically between 2017 and 2018.
2018 Multi-threat Download
Lloyd’s City Risk Index Methodology

This working paper documents the methodology used for the Lloyd’s City Risk Index 2018 analysis. It describes how cities were selected, GDP projections, and the updated resilience ratings. It outlines the Catastronomics methodology and how GDP@Risk is calculated.
2018 Multi-threat Download
Managing Cyber Insurance Accumulation Risk

A framework for setting risk appetite and evaluating PML scenarios in cyber insurance risk. The report describes five cyber loss processes and scenarios for managing accumulation risk.
2016 Space and Technology Download
Millennial Uprising Social Unrest Stress Test Scenario

Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme social uprising, fueled by youth unemployment. This captures the changing nature of social unrest informed by the Arab Spring and Occupy Wall Street.
2014 Geopolitics and Security Download
Multiline Data Schema Consultation Document Phase One V0.9

Consultation document V0.9 on the Phase One classes of insurance: marine, aviation, energy and casualty. This document populates the core dictionaries associated with each schema and builds upon the feedback received from the V0.5 consultation document. We welcome feedback from the wider community as we continue to develop the schema.
2017 Multi-Threat Download
Multiline Data Schema Consultation Document Phase Two V0.9

This report was produced as part of the Global Exposure Accumulation and Clash (GEAC) Project, in collaboration with RMS.
2018 Multi-threat Download
Multiline Data Schema Consultation Document Phase Three V0.9

This report was produced as part of the Global Exposure Accumulation and Clash (GEAC) Project, in collaboration with RMS.
2018 Multi-threat Download
Multiline Data Schema Consultation Document Phase One V0.5

Consultation document V0.5 of the initial document. This update focuses on marine, aviation, energy and casualty classes of insurance. The document outlines the core dictionaries associated with each schema. We hope to collect feedback from the wider community as we continue to populate and develop the schema.
2017 Multi-Threat Download
Multiline Data Schema Consultation Document Phase Two V0.5

This consultation document builds on the V0.1 research, and focuses on agriculture, trade credit, surety, specialised underwriting classes, life and health. The document outlines the core dictionaries associated with each schema. We hope to collect feedback from the wider community as we continue to populate and develop the schema.
2018 Multi-threat Download
Multiline Data Schema Consultation Document Phase One V0.1

Consultation document for the development of a data schema to capture insured exposure in the main lines of insurance business. V0.1 describes the objectives and principles of the initiative.
2017 Multi-Threat Download
Multi-Threat Risk Analysis and Insurance Growth Opportunities Report

As part of the Cambridge Global Risk Framework, this report considers the risks that cities face, how city risks relate to insurance penetration levels, and how insurance products can be aligned with city risk profiles and identify insurance growth opportunities.
2017 Multi-Threat Download
Organised Crime – Piracy

Profile of the macro-catastrophe threat type 'Organised Crime - Piracy'.
2012 Geopolitics and Security Download
São Paulo Virus Pandemic Stress Test Scenario

Catastrophe stress test scenario of an extreme but plausible pandemic. Infectious diseases continue to pose a major societal threat.
2014 Health and Humanity Download
Social Unrest

This document presents a profile of the macro-catastrophe threat type 'Social Unrest'.
2013 Geopolitics and Security Download
Steering the Course: An Emerging Risk Report from Lloyd's Innovation

The report presents an alternative model to help insurers understand the 'tail risk' of potential losses they might experience in their marine portfolio. This analysis helps marine underwriters improve their estimation of the capital they need to support this important line of insurance business.
2018 Multi-Threat Download
Sybil Logic Bomb Cyber Catastrophe Stress Test Scenario

Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme cyber event that quantifies systemic risk of commercial digital infrastructure. Identifies "Systemically Important Technology Enterprises", SITEs, as key to understanding systemic cyber vulnerability.
2014 Space and Technology Download
Unhedgeable Risk: How Climate Change Sentiment Impacts Investment

Catastrophe stress test scenarios of plausible but extreme sentiment shocks in financial markets, in reaction to climate change.
2015 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Download
World Cities Risk 2025: Part One - Overview and Results

Main report providing an overview of the World City Risk 2025 analysis and key results. It describes the outline methodology and key principles, results and conclusions, validation and comparison with other studies, and some sensitivity studies for mitigating risk and potential for climate change to increase catastrophe risk.
2015 Multi-Threat Download
World Cities Risk 2025: Part Two - Methodology

This working paper documents the methodology used for the World City Risk 2025 analysis. It describes how cities were selected, GDP projections, and vulnerability and resilience assessed. It outlines the Catastronomics methodology and how the risk atlas was compiled.
2015 Multi-Threat Download
World City Risk 2025: Executive Summary

Catastrophe stress test scenarios of plausible but extreme sentiment shocks in financial markets, in reaction to climate change.
2015 Multi-Threat Download
World Cities Risk 2025: Atlas

Online maps of World City Risk 2025, containing interactive city data, threat hazard mapping, and results for the world’s most important 301 cities.
2014 Multi-Threat Download
World Cities Risk 2025: Analysis

An overview slide presentation of the context, methodology and results from the World City Risk 2025 project.
2014 Multi-Threat Download

Multi-threat

Assessing risk to the global economy and industry across diverse threat classes and types.

Finance, economics and trade

Considering the impacts of threat types in the finance, economics and trade class, including market crashes and commodity price spirals.

Space and technology

An emerging threat class that the Centre for Risk Studies is exploring in depth, including its impacts on the world economy.

Geopolitics and security

Examining the impacts of threat types in the Geopolitics and Security class, including conflict and social unrest.

Health and humanity

Considering the impacts of threat types in the health and humanity class, including human pandemics.

Natural catastrophe and climate

Researching the impacts of threat types in the Natural Catastrophe and Climate class, including climate change and extreme weather events.