A Risk Analysis Retrospective on the 2015 Paris Attacks Impact analysis conducted in the wake of the November 2015 Paris Attacks, based on contemporary modelling done by the Centre for Risk Studies. An October 2016 revision examines the real-world economic damage and changing threat landscape in the West.
A Taxonomy of Threats for Complex Risk Management A framework for systemic assessment of macro-catastrophes, including a taxonomy of macro-catastrophe threats that have the potential to cause damage and disruption to social and economic systems in the modern globalised world.
Cambridge Global Risk Index 2020 The research by the Centre for Risk Studies is unique in making an annual qualification of the potential GDP impact of unpredictable shocks on the world’s most prominent cities. The 2020 update to the Global Risk Index sees a uniform rise in GDP@Risk across all the 279 cities that make up the index and more significant increases in risk for urban centres.
Cambridge Global Risk Index 2019: Executive Summary The 2019 update of the Cambridge Global Risk Index. The Global Risk Index compiles the impacts of 22 types of threats into a single, annual measurement of economic loss. Cyber risk has seen a rise from seventh to sixth place among global threats in this year’s Index.
Cambridge Global Risk Index 2018: Executive Summary This is the 2018 update of the Cambridge Global Risk Index. The Global Risk Index compiles the impacts of 22 types of threats into a single, annual measurement of economic loss. Interstate conflict, belong to the geopolitical and security threat class, is the only risk of the 22 that has increased systemically between 2017 and 2018.
Cambridge Global Risk Index 2018: Methodology This working paper documents the methodology used for the Cambridge Global Risk Index 2018 Executive Summary analysis. It describes how cities were selected, GDP projections, and the updated resilience ratings. It outlines the Catastronomics methodology and how GDP@Risk is calculated.
Cambridge Global Risk Index 2017: Executive Summary 2017 launch of the Cambridge Global Risk Index, which analyses the exposure to shocks of the global economy against a calculated baseline and provides an overview of risk for the world’s economy for the next 10 years.
Cambridge Taxonomy of Business Risks This report presents the business risk taxonomy developed as part of the Cambridge Risk Framework and describes the methodology used. This taxonomy describes the entire threat landscape corporates face, enabling identification of emerging risks and creating a common language for communicating risks.
Cyber Risk Outlook 2018 This report explores the rapidly changing cyber landscape, presenting the Centre’s latest research on cyber risk including shifting trends in the risk landscape, management of emerging cyber threats, trends in cyber loss processes, and the current and future state of cyber insurance markets.
Cyber Threat Monograph A framework for classifying cyber threat, and compiled a database of significant past attacks, to inform evolving business risk. We examine approaches to measuring vulnerabilities to attacks and industry sector and geographic variations.
CyRiM Scenario: Bashe Attack
In this report’s scenario, the ransomware attack is launched through an infected email, which once opened is forwarded to all contacts and within 24 hours encrypts all data on 30 million devices worldwide.
Developing Scenarios for Disaster Risk Reduction The report provides an accessible guide to scenario analysis and applications for the DRR community, to facilitate the understanding, communication, management, and mitigation of disaster risks.
Developing Scenarios for the Insurance Industry The report outlines best practices for scenario analysis within the insurance community, and provides a practical framework to assist practitioners engaging with risk scenario development.
Dollar Deposed Financial Catastrophe Stress Test Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme financial catastrophe. This scenario sees the rapid development of the Chinese domestic economy destabilizes the value of the dollar.
Ebola Contingency Scenario A ‘contingency’ scenario for the economic impact of possible Ebola outbreaks in the United States and Europe, based on upper bounds of published epidemiological projections from the West Africa epidemic of 2014. This scenario is offered as a contribution to improving business resilience.
Eurozone Meltdown Financial Catastrophe Street Test Catastrophe stress test of risks posed by a plausible but extreme financial catastrophe. The sudden exit of Italy from the Eurozone triggers a cascade of sovereign debt defaults in vulnerable European states.
Geopolitical Conflict Threat Monograph A review of the drivers of wars between nation states in the wider context of the balance of power within the international system. This covers three main strands: political ambitions, economic motives and ideological differences.
Global Property Crash Stress Test Scenario Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme global property crash financial catastrophe. A sudden loss of confidence in the boom markets of South East Asia triggers a housing market collapse that impacts mortgage and non-mortgage assets worldwide.
Helios Solar Storm Scenario Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme space weather event. This explores of the economic and business impacts of a significant geomagnetic disturbance that destroys electricity grid infrastructure (extra high voltage transformers) in the Northern hemisphere.
High Inflation World Financial Catastrophe Stress Test Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme financial catastrophe. Ecological and political pressures lead to a sudden shock to global food and oil supplies causing prices to spiral uncontrollably worldwide.
Human Pandemic Threat Monograph A review of human pandemics: infectious disease outbreaks that spread internationally and cause death and illness in human populations, including influenza pandemics, emerging infectious diseases and re-emergent disease epidemics.
Lloyd’s Business Blackout Scenario Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme cyber attack on the US electricity grid causing a major power outage in the Northeastern United States, for Lloyd’s.
Multiline Data Schema Consultation Document Phase One V0.9 Consultation document V0.9 on the Phase One classes of insurance: marine, aviation, energy and casualty. This document populates the core dictionaries associated with each schema and builds upon the feedback received from the V0.5 consultation document. We welcome feedback from the wider community as we continue to develop the schema.
Multiline Data Schema Consultation Document Phase One V0.5 Consultation document V0.5 of the initial document. This update focuses on marine, aviation, energy and casualty classes of insurance. The document outlines the core dictionaries associated with each schema. We hope to collect feedback from the wider community as we continue to populate and develop the schema.
Multiline Data Schema Consultation Document Phase Two V0.5 This consultation document builds on the V0.1 research, and focuses on agriculture, trade credit, surety, specialised underwriting classes, life and health. The document outlines the core dictionaries associated with each schema. We hope to collect feedback from the wider community as we continue to populate and develop the schema.
Risk Management for the Consumer Sectors The report, written in collaboration with IRM, analyses impacts to the consumer sector and supply chains across six illustrative stress tests, including: trade dispute, geopolitical conflict, cyber attack, natural catastrophe, pandemic, and accelerated changes from the equal payment movement.
Risk Management Perspectives of Global Corporations This report is produced as part of the Centre’s research track on corporate risk profiling. The focus and intention of this report is to better understand the perspectives and practices of risk management at global corporations.
Shen Attack: Cyber Risk in Asia Pacific Ports What would the impact be on the global economy and insurers if several ports in Asia-Pacific were closed as a result of a cyber-attack? This report explores the impact of a hypothetical computer virus which closes up to 15 ports in Asia. Economic losses from closures and disruption range from $40.8 billion in the least severe scenario variant to $109.8 billion in the most extreme.
Steering the Course: An Emerging Risk Report from Lloyd’s Innovation The report presents an alternative model to help insurers understand the ‘tail risk’ of potential losses they might experience in their marine portfolio. This analysis helps marine underwriters improve their estimation of the capital they need to support this important line of insurance business.
Sybil Logic Bomb Cyber Catastrophe Stress Test Scenario Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme cyber event that quantifies systemic risk of commercial digital infrastructure. Identifies “Systemically Important Technology Enterprises”, SITEs, as key to understanding systemic cyber vulnerability.
Systemic Risk – Systemic Solutions for an Increasingly Interconnected World This report examines the nature of ‘systemic risk’, identifying a Global Risk Nexus of 10 key systemic risks, from climate change to biodiversity loss and natural disasters, through antimicrobial resistance, human and agricultural pandemics, to cyber risk and global governance failure, and ultimately global economic and financial crises.
World Cities Risk 2025: Part One – Overview and Results Main report providing an overview of the World City Risk 2025 analysis and key results. It describes the outline methodology and key principles, results and conclusions, validation and comparison with other studies, and some sensitivity studies for mitigating risk and potential for climate change to increase catastrophe risk.
World Cities Risk 2025: Part Two – Methodology This working paper documents the methodology used for the World City Risk 2025 analysis. It describes how cities were selected, GDP projections, and vulnerability and resilience assessed. It outlines the Catastronomics methodology and how the risk atlas was compiled.