A conference presented by the Centre for Risk Studies, together with the Cambridge Complexity Consortium and the Centre for Science and Policy.
Catastrophic failure in complex systems is difficult to predict but is managed across a wide range of applications. Understanding the threats of high-impact, low-probability events is the area of catastrophe science. It is notoriously difficult because precedents are few and historical observational data contains few signals of the threat of extreme volatility. Shocks to the system are often, after the event, described as unpredictable.
This workshop examined the phenomenon of catastrophe and challenged the assumptions of unpredictability. Wide ranges of potential causes of extreme disruption for society and the economy, as well as the approaches to quantifying and comparing different threats were explored.
Introductions from the Centre for Risk Studies
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Welcome and introductions |
Professor Daniel Ralph, Cambridge Judge Business School |
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Introduction to the Cambridge Complexity Consortium |
Michelle Tuveson, Lockheed Martin |
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Introduction to the Centre for Risk Studies |
Andrew Coburn, RMS |
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Introduction to the Centre for Science and Policy |
David Cleevely, University of Cambridge |
Plenary Session One: Science around Risk
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Catastrophic Failures in Networked Systems |
Jon Crowcroft, University of Cambridge |
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Robust Networks |
Sanjeev Goyal, University of Cambridge |
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Catastrophe Insurance Risk |
Hemant Shah, RMS |
Plenary Session Two: Real-world Examples of Catastrophic Failures
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Failure Mechanisms in Modern Telecommunication Systems |
Nick Kingsbury, University of Cambridge |
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Catastrophic Failures in Biological Systems |
Steve Oliver, University of Cambridge |
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Risk Provisioning and Government Policy |
Jim Norton, UK POST |
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Risk Analysis of Complex Systems: From Space Shuttle Challenger Disaster to Detection of Illicit Nuclear Materials Entering Ports |
Siddhartha Dalal, Rand Corporation |
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Visualisation and Presentation of Risk in Decision Making |
David Spiegelhalter, University of Cambridge |
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Environmental Risks |
Rowan Douglas, Willis |
Facilitated Meeting Discussion
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What Are the High Emerging Risks? |
Introduction by Andrew Coburn, RMS |
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Meeting Summary |
Julian Hunt, University of Cambridge |
Speakers
- Daniel Ralph, Cambridge Judge Business School
- Michelle Tuveson, Lockheed Martin
- Andrew Coburn, RMS
- David Cleevely, University of Cambridge
- Jon Crowcroft, University of Cambridge
- Sanjeev Goyal, University of Cambridge
- Hemant Shah, RMS
- Nick Kingsbury, University of Cambridge
- Steve Oliver, University of Cambridge
- Jim Norton, UK POST
- Siddhartha Dalal, Rand Corporation
- David Spiegelhalter, University of Cambridge
- Rowan Douglas, Willis
- Trevor Maynard, Lloyd’s
- Julian Hunt, University of Cambridge