This report is part of the Centre for Risk Studies’ suite of stress test scenario reports, developed to explore management processes for dealing with an extreme shock. It is not a prediction.
Social unrest is a growing issue for global businesses, posing a potential for disruption in many countries where international business operations are based.
This study provides a framework to understand social unrest, and the political instability that can result. It describes a hypothetical scenario of an extreme episode of social unrest that businesses can use as a stress test scenario to explore their own ability to manage a crisis of this type.
- The economies of North America and Europe suffer from disruption and reduction in output from strikes and workforce absenteeism, a drop in imports and exports due to targeted trade disruption, and a loss of demand and consumption.
- The results and protests of the scenario result in many minor, and some major, incidences of property damage, vehicle destruction, looting, emergency response costs, and pay-outs for compensation.
- The estimated loss in global GDP output in the five years following the Millennial Uprising Scenario amounts to losses of $1.6 to $8 trillion, depending on the scenario variant in question.
- The scenario also impacts the markets and investment portfolios negatively. Eurozone and UK assets are substantially negatively impacted. US assets are less affected.