This report summarises the Centre for Risk Studies’ analysis of global risk outlook for 2017 to the world’s economy from 22 threats in five broad categories.
Using available evidence and data on the underlying processes and consequences to guide these assessments and combines information on threat processes, we gather economics of cities, scenarios, and consequence estimates to provide an assessment of future risk.
The Centre for Risk Studies last produced a Global Risk Index analysis in 2014 in partnership with Lloyd’s as the ten-year outlook for Lloyd’s City Risk Index 2015-2024. In that analysis 1.46% of global GDP was estimated to be at risk over the next decade. This report summarises the Centre for Risk Studies update for 2017.
- The risk of major shocks to the global economy is increasing.
- This increase in global risk is driven by various forces including the growth of the world economy (meaning more output to be disrupted) as well as the increase of certain risks, such as geopolitical and technology risks.
- Other threat types are reducing: pandemic risk and banking crisis are being managed downwards, and political separatism is becoming less common.