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Paul Kattuman

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Professor of Economics
Director of Studies in Management and Fellow of Corpus Christi College

BA, MA (Calicut University), MPhil, PhD (University of Cambridge)

Research interests

Applied econometrics and statistics; industrial organisation; corporate performance; system dynamics; India; China.

Subject group: Economics & Policy

Professional experience

Professor Kattuman was an economist in the Indian civil service prior to beginning his academic career. He served as a senior expert in the EC-Delegation to Bosnia and Herzegovina (2008-2009) and in the EU public financial management programme for the Republic of Moldova (2016-2018). Since the beginning of the pandemic he has worked with Public Health England East of England, NHS Improvement East of England, and the Governments of Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Kerala states in India, contributing statistical analysis and forecasts to support COVID operations and management.

Previous appointments

Professor Kattuman has been a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Cambridge Department of Applied Economics, and a Lecturer in Economics at Durham. He has held Visiting Professorships at Université Paris 12 / Paris-Est Créteil, and was appointed Grupo Santander Visiting Professor at Universidad Complutense de Madrid. He was appointed a Visiting Faculty Scholar at Harvard Kennedy School (2007-2008), the Department of Statistics at Harvard (2011) and Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (2022). In 2022 he was also appointed Visiting Fellow at The Harvard Data Science Initiative.

Awards & honours

  • Highly commended for academic research with real-world impact (for “Time series models based on growth curves with applications to forecasting coronavirus” with Andrew Harvey, Harvard Data Science Review), Financial Times Responsible Business Education Awards, 2023
  • Cambridge Judge Business School Teaching Award, 2020
  • Cambridge Judge Business School Teaching Award, 2016
  • Trinity College Research Studentship, 1991
  • Commonwealth Scholarship, 1991

Selected publications

Here are a selection of Paul Kattuman’s publications. Please see the “Selected publications” tab above for a more comprehensive list.

Harvey, A. and Kattuman, P. (2021) “A farewell to R: time-series models for tracking and forecasting epidemics.” Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 18(182): 20210179 (DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0179)

Sharapov, D., Kattuman, P., Rodriguez D. and Velazquez, F.J. (2021) “Using the SHAPLEY value approach to variance decomposition in strategy research: diversification, internationalization, and corporate group effects on affiliate profitability.” Strategic Management Journal, 42(3): 608-623 (DOI: 10.1002/smj.3236)

Harvey, A. and Kattuman, P. (2020) “Time series models based on growth curves with applications to forecasting coronavirus.” Harvard Data Science Review, 2(Special Issue: COVID-19: Unprecedented Challenges and Chances)

Kattuman, P., Loch, C., and Kurchian, C. (2019) “Management succession and success in a professional soccer team.” PLOS ONE: 14(3): e0212634 (DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0212634)

Ibragimov, M., Ibragimov, R., Kattuman, P. and Ma, J. (2018) “Income inequality and price elasticity of market demand: the case of crossing Lorenz curves.” Economic Theory, 65(3): 729-750 (DOI: 10.1007/s00199-017-1037-0)

Ibragimov, M., Ibragimov, R. and Kattuman P. (2013) “Emerging markets and heavy tails.” Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(7): 2546-2559 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.02.019)

Journal articles

Kattuman, P.A. (1996) “On the size distribution of businesses of large enterprises: UK manufacturing.” Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 7(4): 479-494 (DOI: 10.1016/S0954-349X(96)00055-0)

Redmond, G. and Kattuman, P. (2001) “Employment polarisation and inequality in the UK and Hungary.” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 25(4): 467-480

Kattuman, P. and Redmond, G. (2001) “Income inequality in early transition: the case of Hungary 1987-1996.” Journal of Comparative Economics, 29(1): 40-65

Higson, C., Holly, S. and Kattuman, P. (2002) “The cross-sectional dynamics of the US business cycle: 1950-1999.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 26(9/10): 1539-1555

Baye, M.R. and Kattuman, P. (2003) “Incentives at Cambridge in 1574.” Lagniappe to Journal of Political Economy, 111(6)

Higson, C., Holly, S., Kattuman, P. and Platis, S. (2004) “The business cycle, macroeconomic shocks and the cross-section: the growth of UK quoted companies.” Economica, 71(281): 299-318

Bialek, J.W. and Kattuman, P.A. (2004) “Proportional sharing assumption in tracing methodology.” IEE Proceedings Generation Transmission and Distribution, 151(4): 526-532

Kattuman, P., Green, R.J. and Bialek, J.W. (2004) “Allocating electricity transmission costs through tracing: a game-theoretic rationale.” Operations Research Letters, 32(2): 114-120

Allington, N., Kattuman, P. and Waldmann, F. (2005) “One market, one money, one price?” International Journal of Central Banking, 1(3): 73-115

Baye, M.R., Gatti, J.R.J., Kattuman, P. and Morgan, J. (2006) “Did the Euro foster online price competition? Evidence from an international price comparison site.” Economic Inquiry, 44(2): 265-279 (DOI: 10.1093/ei/cbj015)

Baye, M.R., Gatti, J.R.J., Kattuman, P. and Morgan, J. (2007) “A dashboard for online pricing.” California Management Review, 50(1): 202-216

Bhattacharjee, A., Higson, C., Holly, S., and Kattuman, P. (2009) “Macroeconomic instability and business exit: determinants of failures and acquisitions of UK firms.” Economica, 76(301): 108-131

Baye, M.R., Gatti, J.R.J., Kattuman, P. and Morgan, J. (2009) “Clicks, discontinuities, and firm demand online.” Journal of Economics and Management Strategy, 18(4): 935-975

Bhattacharjee, A., Higson, C., Holly, S. and Kattuman, P. (2009) “Macroeconomic instability and corporate failure: the role of the legal system.” Review of Law and Economics, 5(1): 1-32

Kambhampati, U.S. and Kattuman, P.A. (2009) “Growth responses to competitive shocks: market structure dynamics under liberalisation.” Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 20(2): 114-125 (DOI: doi:10.1016/j.strueco.2009.01.002)

Jiang, N. and Kattuman, P.A. (2010) “Intensity of competition in China: profitability dynamics of Chinese listed companies.” Asia Pacific Business Review, 16(3): 461-481 (DOI: 10.1080/13602380902949321)

Jiang, N. and Kattuman, P.A. (2012) “China’s WTO accession and long-term profitability of Chinese firms.” International Journal of the Economics of Business, 19(1): 53-73 (DOI: 10.1080/13571516.2012.642638)

Herzog, J.O., Munir, K.A. and Kattuman, P. (2013) “The King and I: monarchies and the performance of business groups.” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 37(1): 171-185 (DOI: 10.1093/cje/bes032)

Ibragimov, M., Ibragimov, R. and Kattuman P. (2013) “Emerging markets and heavy tails.” Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(7): 2546-2559 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.02.019)

Arenoe, B., van der Rest, J.I. and Kattuman, P. (2015) “Game theoretic pricing models in hotel revenue management: an equilibrium choice-based conjoint analysis approach.” Tourism Management, 51: 96-102 (DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2015.04.007)

Jiang, N., Kattuman, P. and Kotia, A. (2017) “Polarisation and reversion under competition: profitability of Indian firms.” International Journal of the Economics of Business, 24(2): 131-151 (DOI: 10.1080/13571516.2017.1290750)

Hiremath, G.S. and Kattuman, P. (2017) “Foreign portfolio flows and emerging stock market: is the midnight bell ringing in India?” Research in International Business and Finance, 42: 544-558 (DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.04.016)

Ibragimov, M., Ibragimov, R., Kattuman, P. and Ma, J. (2018) “Income inequality and price elasticity of market demand: the case of crossing Lorenz curves.” Economic Theory, 65(3): 729-750 (DOI: 10.1007/s00199-017-1037-0)

Kattuman, P., Loch, C., and Kurchian, C. (2019) “Management succession and success in a professional soccer team.” PLOS ONE: 14(3): e0212634 (DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0212634)

Harvey, A. and Kattuman, P. (2020) “Time series models based on growth curves with applications to forecasting coronavirus.” Harvard Data Science Review, 2(Special Issue: COVID-19: Unprecedented Challenges and Chances)

Harvey, A., Kattuman, P. and Thamotheram, C. (2021) “Tracking the mutant: forecasting and nowcasting Covid-19 in the UK in 2021.” National Institute Economic Review, 256: 110-126 (DOI: 10.1017/nie.2021.12)

Harvey, A. and Kattuman, P. (2021) “A farewell to R: time-series models for tracking and forecasting epidemics.” Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 18(182): 20210179 (DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0179)

Sharapov, D., Kattuman, P., Rodriguez D. and Velazquez, F.J. (2021) “Using the SHAPLEY value approach to variance decomposition in strategy research: diversification, internationalization, and corporate group effects on affiliate profitability.” Strategic Management Journal, 42(3): 608-623 (DOI: 10.1002/smj.3236)

Lurka, F. and Kattuman, P. (2022) “The euro and price convergence in Central and Eastern Europe.” International Journal of Central Banking (forthcoming)

Book chapters

Rupert, J., Gatti, J. and Kattuman, P. (2003) “Online price dispersion within and between seven European countries.” In Baye, M.R. (ed.): Advances in applied microeconomics: vol.12: organizing the new industrial economy. London: JAI Press, pp.107-141

Kattuman, P. and Iyer, K. (2003) “Human capital in the move up the value chain: the case of the Indian software and services industry.” In Giovannetti, E., Kagami, M. and Tsuji, M. (eds.): The Internet revolution: a global perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp.162-179

Kattuman, P. and Bhattacharjee, A. (2004) “Software in India: development implications of globalization and the international division of labour.” In Kagami, M., Tsuji, M. and Giovannetti, E. (eds.): Information technology policy and the digital divide. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, pp.92-113

Kattuman, P.A. (1998) “The role of history in the transition to an industrial district: the case of the Indian bicycle industry.” In Cadène, P. and Holmström, M. (eds.): Decentralized production in India: industrial districts, flexible specialization, and employment. London: Sage Publications, pp.230-250

Conference papers

Holweg, M. and Kattuman, P. (2006) “Dynamic determination of the residual product value: empirical evidence from the automotive industry.” In: OM in the new world uncertainties: POMS Annual Conference, 17th, 28 Apr-1 May 2006, Boston, MA.

Kattuman, P. (2007) “Exact distributions of Schur functions.” In: International Indian Statistical Association (IISA) Joint Statistical Meeting and International Conference on Statistics, Probability and Related Areas, 2-5 January 2007, Cochin, India.

Kattuman, P.A., Rodriguez, D., Sharapov, D. and Velazquez, F.J. (2011) “Revisiting profitability: firm, business group, industry and country effects.” In: West meets East: enlightening, balancing, and transcending: Academy of Management Best Papers Proceedings, 12-16 August 2011, San Antonio, TX.

Jain, A. and Kattuman, P. (2015) “Decision-making and planning framework to improve the deployment success of decentralized rural electrification in India.” In: Hostettler S., Gadgil A. and Hazboun E. (eds.) Sustainable access to energy in the Global South: EPFL-UNESCO Chair Conference on Technologies for Development (3rd), 4-6 June 2014, Lausanne, Switzerland. Heidelberg: Springer, Cham, pp.129-145

Working papers

Kattuman, P.A. (1995) “On the size distribution of establishments of large enterprises: an analysis for UK manufacturing.” ESRC Centre for Business Research, Cambridge University, Working Paper No.8

Kattuman, P.A. (1995) “The role of history in the transition to an industrial district: the case of the Indian bicycle industry.” Economics Department, Durham University, No.143

Kattuman, P. and Domanski, R. (1997) “Industrial concentration under shock therapy: Poland in early transition years.” ESRC Centre for Business Research, Cambridge University, Working Paper No.76

Kattuman, P. and Redmond, G. (1997) “Income inequality in Hungary 1987-1993.” Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, No.9726. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.

Kattuman, P. and Redmond, G. (1997) “Income inequality in Hungary 1987-1993.” Economics Department, Durham University, No.182

Kattuman, P. and Roberts, B.M. (2000) “Strategy choices of firms and market concentration.” Applied Economics Department, Cambridge University, Working Paper No.2000/18

Kattuman, P., Green, R.J. and Bialek, J.W. (2001) “A tracing method for pricing inter-area electricity trades.” Applied Economics Department, Cambridge University, Working Paper No.2001/7

Higson, C., Holly, S., Kattuman, P. and Platis, S. (2001) “The business cycle, macroeconomic shocks and the cross section: the growth of UK quoted companies.” Applied Economics Department, Cambridge University, Working Paper No.2001/14

Bhattacharjee, A., Higson, C., Holly, S. and Kattuman, P. (2002) “Macro economic instability and business exit: determinants of failures and acquisitions of large UK firms.” Applied Economics Department, Cambridge University, Working Paper No.2002/6

Baye, M.R., Gatti, R., Kattuman, P. and Morgan, J. (2002) “Online pricing and the Euro changeover: cross-country comparisons.” Judge Business School Working Papers, No.17/2002. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.

Gatti, J.R.J. and Kattuman, P. (2003) “Online price dispersion within and between seven European countries.” Economic Department, Cambridge University, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics CWPE No.343

Kattuman, P. (2003) “Growth response to competitive shocks: market structure dynamics under liberalisation – the case of India.” ESRC Centre for Business Research, Cambridge University, Working Paper No.263

Kattuman, P.A. and Chirmiciu, A. (2003) “Significant feedbacks in firm growth and market structure.” ESRC Centre for Business Research, Cambridge University, Working Paper No.270

Baye, M.R., Gatti, R.J., Kattuman, P. and Morgan, J. (2004) “Estimating firm-level demand at a price comparison site: accounting for shoppers and the number of competitors.” University of California at Berkeley, Competition Policy Centre Working Paper Series, No.CP205-050. Berkeley, CA: University of California at Berkeley.

Allington, N.F.B., Kattuman, P.A. and Waldmann, F.A. (2005) “One market, one money, one price? Price dispersion in the European Union.” Judge Institute of Management Working Papers, No.01/2005

Zimmermann, C. and Kattuman, P.A. (2007) “On ‘considering’ internationalization: how do perceived resource-based constraints matter?” Cambridge Judge Business School Working Papers, No.07/2007. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.

Kattuman, P. and Lewis, M. (2007) “A diagnostic for lock-in.” Cambridge Judge Business School Working Papers, No.20/2007. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.

Harvey, A. and Kattuman, P. (2020) “Time series models based on growth curves with applications to forecasting coronavirus.” Harvard Data Science Review, Special Issue 1 (DOI: 10.1162/99608f92.828f40de)

Impactful research honoured by FT

Studies on COVID-19 modelling by Paul Kattuman and marginalisation by Shahzad Ansari are named runners-up in the annual Responsible Business Education Awards…

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Top 15 reads of 2021

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From ‘R rate’ to ‘nowcasts’

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COVID-19 in India

A new weekly CJBS COVID-19 Tracker for India, developed by Cambridge Judge Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social…

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Tracking pandemics

New study co-authored by Dr Paul Kattuman of Cambridge Judge develops new time series models to predict epidemic trajectories before they reach…

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Superb teaching

Eight members of the Cambridge Judge faculty are awarded Teaching Prizes for excellence across the School's programmes. Eight members of the Cambridge…

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Coronavirus research

Working with Public Health England and the NHS in the East of England on responses to COVID-19 (coronavirus). A team of a…

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Green shoots of recovery, anyone?

If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences: the maxim of the 'self fulfilling prophecy'. Forecasts that are…

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Distributing the downturn

The International Labour Organisation has forecast a rise in unemployment by 20 million worldwide by the end of 2009. The Organisation for…

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The devil’s in the details: regulating financial innovation

With elections in India in a few months, the war on terror must be squarely at the centre of the political agenda.…

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Bloomberg: India’s Covid cases almost double in a week to three month high

COVID-19 tracker co-developed by Paul Kattuman, Professor of Economics at Cambridge Judge Business School, is mentioned in this article about India’s daily…

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The Indian Express: No reason to believe any state will escape Omicron wave – Cambridge professor who worked on India Covid-19 tracker

Professor Paul Kattuman, economist and applied econometrician at Cambridge Judge Business School, comments on Omicron wave in India: “Patterns in the data…

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The Times of India: Despite vaccination coverage, Himachal Pradesh tops Covid spread in rural areas

Further press coverage for Covid-19 tracker system for India co-authored by Paul Kattuman, Professor of Economics at Cambridge Judge Business School, in…

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The Week: Current wave could bring about end of pandemic: Professor Paul Kattuman

An interview with Paul Kattuman, Professor of Economics at Cambridge Judge Business School), about Covid cases in India relating to a coronavirus…

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The Economist: Is India prepared for Omicron?

Paul Kattuman, Professor of Economics at Cambridge Judge Business School, comments on the Covid-19 situation in India relating to a coronavirus tracker…

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Bloomberg: India may see surging cases within days, Cambridge tracker says

Paul Kattuman, Professor of Economics at Cambridge Judge Business School, comments on rising cases in India. “It is likely that India will…

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The Times of India: “Punjab needs to speed up vaccination drive”

The surges witness during the last week in Punjab have settled down, as per the weekly report of Cambridge Judge Business School…

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The Times of India: Punjab projected to see 300% rise in Covid cases by month-end

“Punjab is among six states in the country that are currently witnessing a daily growth rate of more than 5%, as per…

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The Times of India: Weekly Covid case count in Punjab falls below 200, first time in 71 weeks

A research on Covid cases in India co-authored by Paul Kattuman, Professor of Economics at Cambridge Judge Business School, is cited in…

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Science Daily: Study suggests R rate for tracking pandemic should be dropped in favour of ‘nowcasts’

A study on R rate co-authored by Paul Kattuman, Professor in Economics at Cambridge Judge Business School, is featured in Science Daily.…

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Bloomberg: Forecaster who saw India’s Covid peak sees new wave coming

Dr Paul Kattuman, Reader in Economics at Cambridge Judge Business School, comments on rising Covid-19 cases in India. “If infection begins to…

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The Times of India: Punjab cinemas, gyms can open at 50% capacity

Further press coverage for new COVID Tracker system for India based on a recently published paper by Dr Paul Kattuman. The state…

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Bloomberg: Coronavirus India cases: Active infections drop for second day

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South Asia Monitor: India’s Covid cases have peaked, reflects Cambridge tracker

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Internet Retailer: Winning the holiday price war

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Contact details

Paul Kattuman
Cambridge Judge Business School
University of Cambridge
Trumpington Street
Cambridge CB2 1AG
UK

Tel: +44 (0)1223 764136

[email protected]