This tracker has been developed by researchers at Cambridge Judge Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, working with Health Systems Transformation Platform in India, as part of a pandemic monitoring series devoted to India and its states and union territories. It provides near term forecasts of the trajectory of the pandemic, identifying states and union territories that are at high risk of increases in infection incidence.
The forecasts are based on a structural time series model that uses historical data in estimation but adapts to the trend emerging in the most recent period. The model is described in the recently published paper by Andrew Harvey, Emeritus Professor of Econometrics at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Cambridge, and Paul Kattuman, Reader in Economics at Cambridge Judge Business School, entitled “Time series models based on growth curves with applications to forecasting coronavirus”. Harvard Data Science Review, Special issue 1 – COVID-19.