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Best Practices in Scenario Development and Usage: Present and Future

Back to 2017


Cambridge Judge Business School
University of Cambridge
Trumpington Street

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As part of an insurance industry project Global Exposure, Accumulation and Clash (GEAC), the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, in collaboration with Risk Management Solutions and Praedicat, is pleased to host a workshop on scenario development and usage. This workshop will focus on methodologies for developing and applying scenarios for insurance classes beyond property catastrophe lines, and particularly for scenarios that address clash. A number of multiline clash scenarios will be developed as part of the GEAC initiative. This will be made available through the RMS(one) Exposure Manager platform, as well as empowering participants to develop their own scenarios. 

The workshop brings together stakeholders from across the insurance and reinsurance industry to advance best practices in the development and application of scenarios in insurance decision-making. The workshop is for companies that develop their own multiline clash scenarios, that apply scenarios produced by others, or who report mandated scenario losses to regulators or rating agencies. 

The workshop will be followed by drinks and a private dinner at Corpus Christi College, University of Cambridge.

Please note this is an invite-only event. 

Download the workshop programme

Part one: scenario development




Dr Michelle Tuveson, Executive Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies


Beyond NatCat: Developing Scenarios for Use in Insurance Risk Management
Dr Andrew Coburn, Director of Advisory Board of Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, and Senior Vice President, RMS

Download slides (pdf, 3.4MB)


Modelling Liability Accumulation Using Scenarios
Salomon Billeter, Head of Casualty Model Development, Swiss Re

Download slides (pdf, 3.1MB)


Developing Scenarios to Influence Insurance Decisions
Paul Kaye, Aon Benfield

Download slides (pdf, 450KB)


Chlorinated Organophosphate Flame Retardants: What if the “Next Asbestos” Were Literally the Next Asbestos?
R.J. Briggs, Senior Economist, Praedicat and Adam Grossman, Senior Scientist, Praedicat

Download slides (pdf, 633KB)


Decision making under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty
Professor Robert J. Lempert Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School; RAND Corporation

Download slides (pdf, 1.7MB)


Coffee and tea break


Group Exercise: Scenario Identification and Prioritisation
Facilitator: Pooya Sarabandi, RMS

Download slides (pdf, 1.3MB)


Best Practice in Scenario Development
Moderator: Dr Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Research Officer, RMS


  • Neil Bodoff, Executive Vice President, Willis Re
  • Ralf Roesch, Practice Leader Casualty, SCOR
  • Anthony Shapella, Managing Director – Risk Officer, Liability and Financial Lines, Enterprise Risk Management, AIG
  • Satyan Sawhney, Chief Risk Officer, Sompo International

Part two: using scenarios in decision-making




Using Scenarios in Decision-Making: Applying Research for Business Impact
Professor Daniel Ralph, Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Download slides (pdf, 1.6MB)


Practical (Re)Insurance Company Utilisation of Multi-line Clash Scenarios
David D. Brooks, CPCU, ARM Managing Director and ERM Global Head of Man-Made Perils, XL Catlin

Download slides (pdf, 515KB)


Are Scenario Libraries the Next Evolution of Models? Use of Scenario Library, Platforms and Relationship to Models
Dr Robert Reville, Chief Executive Officer, Praedicat

Download slides (pdf, 633KB)


Evaluating Loss Scenarios and Stress Tests to Determine Insurer Financial Strength Ratings
Stefan Holzberger, AM Best

Download slides (pdf, 1.3MB)


The Evolution in Disaster Scenarios at Lloyd’s
Dr Trevor Maynard, Lloyd’s

Download slides (pdf, 4.7MB)


Breakout session with coffee and tea break: Developing Best Practice Recommendations
Dr Andrew Coburn, Director of Advisory Board of Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, and Senior Vice President, RMS

Workshop attendees will break into three groups:

    • Group A: Identifying Scenarios
    • Group B: Severity of Scenarios
    • Group C: Sensitivity Analysis for Scenarios

Download slides (pdf, 892KB)


Breakout groups report back to plenary session


Panel Discussion: Future of Scenario Development and Usage
Moderator: Professor Rob Lempert, RAND

  • Nancy Bewlay, Global Chief Underwriting Officer, Casualty, XL Catlin
  • Robin Lang, Senior Vice President & Chief Risk Officer, European Operations, RenaissanceRe
  • Hjörtur Thráinsson, Modeling Expert, Munich Re
  • Matt Harrison, Group Head of Casualty Exposure Management, Hiscox


Closing remarks
Dr Robert Reville, CEO, Praedicat


Closing remarks
Peter Ulrich, Senior Vice President, RMS


Convene in lobby of Cambridge Judge Business School to walk over to Corpus Christi College


Networking and drinks reception
Corpus Christi College


Hosted by Praedicat at Corpus Christi College