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Best Practices in Scenario Development and Usage: Present and Future

Location

Cambridge Judge Business School
University of Cambridge
Trumpington Street
Cambridge
CB2 1AG

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As part of an insurance industry project Global Exposure, Accumulation and Clash (GEAC), the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, in collaboration with Risk Management Solutions and Praedicat, is pleased to host a workshop on scenario development and usage. This workshop will focus on methodologies for developing and applying scenarios for insurance classes beyond property catastrophe lines, and particularly for scenarios that address clash. A number of multiline clash scenarios will be developed as part of the GEAC initiative. This will be made available through the RMS(one) Exposure Manager platform, as well as empowering participants to develop their own scenarios. 

The workshop brings together stakeholders from across the insurance and reinsurance industry to advance best practices in the development and application of scenarios in insurance decision-making. The workshop is for companies that develop their own multiline clash scenarios, that apply scenarios produced by others, or who report mandated scenario losses to regulators or rating agencies. 

The workshop will be followed by drinks and a private dinner at Corpus Christi College, University of Cambridge.

Please note this is an invite-only event. 

Part one: scenario development

09:30-09:40 Welcome
Dr Michelle Tuveson, Executive Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
09:40-10:00 Beyond NatCat: Developing Scenarios for Use in Insurance Risk Management
Dr Andrew Coburn, Director of Advisory Board of Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, and Senior Vice President, RMS
10:00-10:20 Developing Casualty and Multiline Business Accumulation: Scenarios
Salomon Billeter, Head of Casualty Model Development, Swiss Re
10:20-10:40 Chlorinated Organophosphate Flame Retardants: What if the “Next Asbestos” Were Literally the Next Asbestos?
R.J. Briggs, Senior Economist, Praedicat and Adam Grossman, Senior Scientist, Praedicat
10:40-11:00 Decision making under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty
Professor Robert J. Lempert Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School; RAND Corporation
11:20-11:50 Coffee and tea break
11:50-12:15 Group Exercise: Scenario Identification and Prioritisation
Facilitator: Pooya Sarabandi, RMS
12:15-13:00 Best Practice in Scenario Development
Moderator: Dr Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Research Officer, RMS

Panelists:

  • Neil Bodoff, Executive Vice President, Willis Re
  • Ralf Roesch, Practice Leader Casualty, SCOR
  • Anthony Shapella, Managing Director – Risk Officer, Liability and Financial Lines, Enterprise Risk Management, AIG
13:00-14:00 Lunch
Common Room at Cambridge Judge Business School

Part two: using scenarios in decision-making

14:00-14:30 Using Scenarios in Decision-Making: Applying Research for Business Impact
Professor Daniel Ralph, Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
14:00-14:40 Practical (Re)Insurance Company Utilisation of Multi-line Clash Scenarios
David D. Brooks, CPCU, ARM Managing Director and ERM Global Head of Man-Made Perils, XL Catlin
14:40-15:00 Are Scenario Libraries the Next Evolution of Models? Use of Scenario Library, Platforms and Relationship to Models
Dr Robert Reville, Chief Executive Officer, Praedicat
15:00-15:20 Evaluating Loss Scenarios and Stress Tests to Determine Insurer Financial Strength Ratings
Stefan Holzberger, AM Best
15:20-15:40 Breakout session with coffee and tea break: Developing Best Practice Recommendations
Dr Andrew Coburn, Director of Advisory Board of Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, and Senior Vice President, RMS

Workshop attendees will break into three groups:

  • Group A: Identifying Scenarios
  • Group B: Severity of Scenarios
  • Group C: Sensitivity Analysis for Scenarios
16:30-17:00 Breakout groups report back to plenary session
17:00-17:30 Panel Discussion: Future of Scenario Development and Usage
Moderator: Professor Rob Lempert, RAND

Panelists to be announced.
17:30-17:45 Closing remarks
Dr Robert Reville, CEO, Praedicat
17:45-18:15 Closing remarks
Peter Ulrich, Senior Vice President, RMS
18:15-18:30 Convene in lobby of Cambridge Judge Business School to walk over to Corpus Christi College
18:30-19:15 Networking and drinks reception
Corpus Christi College
19:15-21:00 Dinner
Hosted by Praedicat at Corpus Christi College

Note: Programme subject to change

  • RMS Centre for Risk Studies workshop sponsor
  • Praedicat Centre for Risk Studies workshop sponsor